scholarly journals Fire prediction with logistic regression on territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina

2021 ◽  
Vol 1208 (1) ◽  
pp. 012033
Author(s):  
Mursel Musabašić ◽  
Denis Mušić ◽  
Elmir Babović
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Index System ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
User Input

Abstract The Canadian Fire Weather Index system [1] has been used worldwide by many countries as classic approach in fire prediction. It represents system that account for the effects of fuel moisture and weather conditions on fire behaviour. It numerical outputs are based on calculation of four meteorological elements: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation in last 24h. In this paper meteorological data in combination with Canadian Fire Weather Index system (CFWI) components is used as input to predict fire occurrence using logistic regression model. As logistic regression is a supervised machine learning method it’s based on user input in the form of dataset. Dataset is collected using NASA GES DISC Giovanni web-based application in the form of daily area-averaged time series in period of 31.7.2010 to 31.7.2020, it’s analysed and pre-processed before it is used as input for logit model. CFWI components values are not imported but calculated in run-time based on pre-processed meteorological data. As a result of this research windows application was developed to assist fire managers and all those involved in studying the fire behaviour.

scholarly journals The Hot-Dry-Windy Index: A New Fire Weather Index

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Srock ◽  
Joseph Charney ◽  
Brian Potter ◽  
Scott Goodrick
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Variables ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Complex Interactions

Fire weather indices are commonly used by fire weather forecasters to predict when weather conditions will make a wildland fire difficult to manage. Complex interactions at multiple scales between fire, fuels, topography, and weather make these predictions extremely difficult. We define a new fire weather index called the Hot-Dry-Windy Index (HDW). HDW uses the basic science of how the atmosphere can affect a fire to define the meteorological variables that can be predicted at synoptic-and meso-alpha-scales that govern the potential for the atmosphere to affect a fire. The new index is formulated to account for meteorological conditions both at the Earth’s surface and in a 500-m layer just above the surface. HDW is defined and then compared with the Haines Index (HI) for four historical fires. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) is used to provide the meteorological data for calculating the indices. Our results indicate that HDW can identify days on which synoptic-and meso-alpha-scale weather processes can contribute to especially dangerous fire behavior. HDW is shown to perform better than the HI for each of the four historical fires. Additionally, since HDW is based on the meteorological variables that govern the potential for the atmosphere to affect a fire, it is possible to speculate on why HDW would be more or less effective based on the conditions that prevail in a given fire case. The HI, in contrast, does not have a physical basis, which makes speculation on why it works or does not work difficult because the mechanisms are not clear.

scholarly journals Fire Weather Index application in north-western Italy

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Cane ◽  
N. Ciccarelli ◽  
F. Gottero ◽  
A. Francesetti ◽  
F. Pelfini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
North Western ◽  
Piedmont Region

Abstract. Piedmont region is located in North-Western Italy and is surrounded by the alpine chain and by the Appennines. The region is covered by a wide extension of forests, mainly in its mountain areas (the forests cover 36% of the regional territory). Forested areas are interested by wildfire events. In the period 1997–2005 Piedmont was interested by an average 387 forest fires per year, covering an average 1926 ha of forest per year. Meteorological conditions like long periods without precipitation contribute to create favourable conditions to forest fire development, while the fire propagation is made easier by the foehn winds, frequently interesting the region in winter and spring particularly. The meteorological danger index FWI (Fire Weather Index) was developed by Van Wagner (1987) for the Canadian Forestry Service, providing a complete description of the behaviour of the different forest components in response to the changing weather conditions. We applied the FWI to the Piedmont region on warning areas previously defined for fire management purposes. The meteorological data-set is based on the data of the very-dense non-GTS network of weather stations managed by Arpa Piemonte. The thresholds for the definition of a danger scenarios system were defined comparing historical FWI data with fires occurred on a 5 years period. The implementation of a prognostic FWI prediction system is planned for the early 2008, involving the use of good forecasts of weather parameters at the station locations obtained by the Multimodel SuperEnsemble post-processing technique.

The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System as a predictor of total soil moisture content as estimated by the Thornthwaite water balance

1985 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 1194-1195
Author(s):  
Robert S. McAlpine ◽  
Thomas G. Eiber
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Index System ◽  
Soil Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Total Soil

Weather data from Upsala and Atikokan, Ontario, were used to determine the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System values and to calculate the soil moisture for two soil types using the Thornthwaite water balance. The Duff Moisture Code and the Drought Code were found to give excellent correlations with the total soil moisture content under most weather patterns.

Fire weather index system components for large fires in the Canadian boreal forest

2004 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 391 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. D. Amiro ◽  
K. A. Logan ◽  
B. M. Wotton ◽  
M. D. Flannigan ◽  
J. B. Todd ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
System Parameters ◽  
System Components ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Canadian Boreal Forest

Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components and head fire intensities were calculated for fires greater than 2 km2 in size for the boreal and taiga ecozones of Canada from 1959 to 1999. The highest noon-hour values were analysed that occurred during the first 21 days of each of 9333 fires. Depending on ecozone, the means of the FWI System parameters ranged from: fine fuel moisture code (FFMC), 90 to 92 (82 to 96 for individual fires); duff moisture code (DMC), 38 to 78 (10 to 140 for individual fires); drought code (DC), 210 to 372 (50 to 600 for individual fires); and fire weather index, 20 to 33 (5 to 60 for individual fires). Fine fuel moisture code decreased, DMC had a mid-season peak, and DC increased through the fire season. Mean head fire intensities ranged from 10 to 28 MW m−1 in the boreal spruce fuel type, showing that most large fires exhibit crown fire behaviour. Intensities of individual fires can exceed 60 MW m−1. Most FWI System parameters did not show trends over the 41-year period because of large inter-annual variability. A changing climate is expected to create future weather conditions more conducive to fire throughout much of Canada but clear changes have not yet occurred.

Relating changes in duff moisture to the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System in Populus tremuloides stands in Elk Island National Park

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (10) ◽  
pp. 1987-1998 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. G. Otway ◽  
E. W. Bork ◽  
K. R. Anderson ◽  
M. E. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Populus Tremuloides ◽  
Index System ◽  
National Park ◽  
National Standard ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Elk Island National Park ◽  
Topographic Positions

The manner in which trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) forest duff moisture changes during the growing season was investigated in Elk Island National Park, Alberta, Canada. A calibration–validation procedure incorporating one calibration site with moisture sampling across three topographic positions was used to develop predictive models, which were subsequently compared with 12 validation sites across three vegetation types throughout the Park. Duff moisture was modelled against the Duff Moisture Code and Drought Code components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Spring, summer, and fall rates of duff moisture change differed (P < 0.050) during calibration, with moisture loss greatest in spring. Additionally, while moisture changes on the south-facing and crest topographic positions were similar during spring, moisture losses were greater (P < 0.050) at these locations compared with the north-facing landscape position. Correlation analysis indicated that duff inorganic content and bulk density were both related to duff moisture but were limited in importance compared with weather-based influences. When compared with predicted values obtained from calibrated models, moderate predictability of duff moisture was found (mean absolute error = 20.7%–54.2%). Relative to the national standard equations, unique but very different empirical relationships were developed between the Duff Moisture Code and Drought Code and the moisture content of the duff layer in aspen forest stands found in Elk Island National Park.

A Study on the Interpolation of Fire Danger Using Radar Precipitation Estimates

1998 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 217 ◽  
Author(s):  
MD Flannigan ◽  
BM Wotton ◽  
S Ziga
Keyword(s):  
Index System ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
The Other ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Weather Stations

In Canada, many fire management agencies interpolate indexes of the Fire Weather Index System to estimate the fire danger between weather stations. Difficulties with interpolation arise because summer precipitation can be highly variable over short distances. This variability hinders the usefulness of interpolating precipitation, which is one of the inputs for the Fire Weather Index System. Precipitation estimates from the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service radar at Upsala, Ontario, were used to determine if this will enable a more accurate measure of the fire danger over the region. Three methods of interpolation of the fire danger between weather stations were compared: first, the standard practice of interpolating fire weather indexes from weather stations to any specified location; second, interpolating the weather variables, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation from the weather station to any specified site and then calculating the fire weather indexes; third, interpolating weather variables as in Method 2 above except using the precipitation estimate from the radar and then calculating the fire weather indexes for any specified site. Overall, results indicate that the standard procedure of interpolating the fire weather indexes performs better than the other two methods. However, there are indexes where the other methods perform best (e.g., the fine fuel moisture code is best determined by using the radar precipitation estimation method). Fire management agencies should continue to use the standard practice of interpolating fire weather indexes to estimate fire danger between weather stations. Factors influencing the performance of the radar estimated precipitation method of estimating fire danger are discussed along with potential application of precipitation radar for fire management purposes.

scholarly journals Updated Operational Implementation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System in Ireland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Padraig Flattery ◽  
Klara Finkele ◽  
Paul Downes ◽  
Ferdia O'Leary ◽  
Ciaran Nugent
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Index System ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Energy Output ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index

&lt;p&gt;Since 2006 the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (FWI) has been used operationally at Met &amp;#201;ireann to predict the risk of forest fires in Ireland (Walsh, S, 2006). Although only around 11% or ca 770,000 ha of the total land area of Ireland is afforested, there are also large areas of open mountain and peatlands that are covered in grasses, dwarfshrub and larger woody shrub type vegetation which can provide ready fuel for spring wildfires, when suitable conditions arise. Following winter, much of this vegetation is either dead or has a very low live moisture content, and the flammability of this vegetation can be readily influenced by prevailing weather, most especially following prolonged dry periods. The Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine is the Forest Protection authority in Ireland and issues Fire Danger Notices as part of this work. These notices permit improved preparedness for fire responses and are based on information provided by Met &amp;#201;ireann on the current status of FWI and FWI components using observation data at synoptic stations and the predicted FWI for the next five days ahead based on numerical weather prediction input data.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The FWI is based on&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;three different types of forest fuel, ie how quickly these dry out/get rewetted. These are the Fine Fuels Moisture Code (FFMC), the Duff Moisture Code (DMC) and the Drought Code (DC).&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;components based on fire behaviour: the Initial Spread Index (ISI), the Build-up Index (BUI), and the Fire Weather Index (FWI) which represents fire intensity as energy output rate per unit length of fire front. It is then used to determine the Daily Severity Rating (DSR) of the fire danger.&amp;#160;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;Of these components, the FFMC and ISI components have been found to provide the most accurate indication of risk under Irish conditions, based on the fuels involved and ignition patterns observed to date.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The DSR was based on a climatology of 1971 to 2005 at the time of operational implantation of the FWI at Met &amp;#201;ireann. An updated climatology based on the new reference period of 1990 to 2020 will be shown as well as the change of the 98 percentiles of extreme rating using this new reference period. &amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Walsh, S.&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;#160;&amp;#8220;Implementation in Ireland of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System.&amp;#8221; In&amp;#160;&lt;em&gt;Making Science Work on the Farm. A Workshop on Decision Support Systems for Irish Agriculture&lt;/em&gt;, 120&amp;#8211;126. Dublin: AGMET, 2007.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

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