scholarly journals A risk prediction model in asymptomatic patients with severe aortic stenosis: CURRENT-AS risk score

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eri Minamino-Muta ◽  
Takao Kato ◽  
Takeshi Morimoto ◽  
Tomohiko Taniguchi ◽  
Kenji Ando ◽  
...  

Abstract Aims Early aortic valve replacement (AVR) might be beneficial in selected high-risk asymptomatic patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS), considering their poor prognosis when managed conservatively. This study aimed to develop and validate a clinical scoring system to predict AS-related events within 1 year after diagnosis in asymptomatic severe AS patients. Methods and results We analysed 1274 asymptomatic severe AS patients derived from a retrospective multicentre registry enrolling consecutive patients with severe AS in Japan (CURRENT AS registry), who were managed conservatively and completed 1-year follow-up without AVR. From a randomly assigned derivation set (N = 849), we developed CURRENT AS risk score for the AS-related event (a composite of AS-related death and heart failure hospitalization) within 1 year using a multivariable logistic regression model. The risk score comprised independent risk predictors including left ventricular ejection fraction <60%, haemoglobin ≤11.0 g/dL, chronic lung disease (2 points), diabetes mellitus, haemodialysis, and any concomitant valve disease (1 point). The predictive accuracy of the model was good with the area under the curve of 0.79 and 0.77 in the derivation and validation sets (N = 425). In the validation set, the 1-year incidence of AS-related events was much higher in patients with score ≥2 than in patients with score ≤1 (Score 0: 2.2%, Score 1: 1.9%, Score 2: 13.4%, Score 3: 14.3%, and Score ≥4: 22.7%, P < 0.001). Conclusion The CURRENT-AS risk score integrating clinical and echocardiographic factors well-predicted the risk of AS-related events at 1 year in asymptomatic patients with severe AS and was validated internally.

Heart ◽  
2018 ◽  
pp. heartjnl-2018-313746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Nakatsuma ◽  
Tomohiko Taniguchi ◽  
Takeshi Morimoto ◽  
Hiroki Shiomi ◽  
Kenji Ando ◽  
...  

ObjectivesWe sought to evaluate the prognostic impact of the B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels in patients with asymptomatic severe aortic stenosis (AS), who were not referred for aortic valve replacement (AVR).MethodsWe used data from a Japanese multicentre registry, the Contemporary outcomes after sURgery and medical tREatmeNT in patients with severe Aortic Stenosis Registry, which enrolled 3815 consecutive patients with severe AS. Of those, 387 asymptomatic patients who were not referred for AVR without left ventricular dysfunction and very severe AS were subdivided into four groups based on their BNP levels (BNP<100 pg/mL, n=201; 100≤BNP<200 pg/mL, n=94; 200≤BNP<300 pg/mL, n=42 and BNP>300 pg/mL, n=50).ResultsThe cumulative 5-year incidence of AS-related events (aortic valve-related death or heart failure hospitalisation) was incrementally higher with increasing BNP level (14.2%, 29.6%, 46.3% and 47.0%, p<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, the risk for AS-related events was incrementally greater with increasing BNP levels (HR: 1.97, 95% CI: 0.97 to 3.98, p=0.06; HR: 3.59, 95% CI: 1.55 to 8.32, p=0.03 and HR: 7.38, 95% CI: 3.21 to 16.9, p<0.001, respectively). Notably, asymptomatic patients with BNPlevels of <100 pg/mL had an event rate of only 2.1% at 1 year.ConclusionsIncreased BNP level was associated with a higher risk for AS-related adverse events in patients with asymptomatic severe AS with normal left ventricular ejection fraction who were not referred for AVR. Asymptomatic patients with BNP levels of <100 pg/mL had relatively low event rate, who might be safely followed with watchful waiting strategy.Trail registration numberUMIN000012140.


Open Heart ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e001443
Author(s):  
Richard Paul Steeds ◽  
David Messika-Zeitoun ◽  
Jeetendra Thambyrajah ◽  
Antonio Serra ◽  
Eberhard Schulz ◽  
...  

AimsThere is an increasing awareness of gender-related differences in patients with severe aortic stenosis and their outcomes after surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) and transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI).MethodsData from the IMPULSE registry were analysed. Patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) were enrolled between March 2015 and April 2017 and stratified by gender. A subgroup analysis was performed to assess the impact of age.ResultsOverall, 2171 patients were enrolled, and 48.0% were female. Women were characterised by a higher rate of renal impairment (31.7 vs 23.3%; p<0.001), were at higher surgical risk (EuroSCORE II: 4.5 vs 3.6%; p=0.001) and more often in a critical preoperative state (7.0vs 4.2%; p=0.003). Men had an increased rate of previous cardiac surgery (9.4 vs 4.7%; p<0.001) and a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (4.9 vs 1.3%; p<0.001). Concomitant mitral and tricuspid valve disease was substantially more common among women. Symptoms were highly prevalent in both women and men (83.6 vs 77.3%; p<0.001). AVR was planned in 1379 cases. Women were more frequently scheduled to undergo TAVI (49.3 vs 41.0%; p<0.001) and less frequently for SAVR (20.3 vs 27.5%; p<0.001).ConclusionsThe present data show that female patients with severe AS have a distinct patient profile and are managed in a different way to males. Gender-based differences in the management of patients with severe AS need to be taken into account more systematically to improve outcomes, especially for women.


2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 273-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antony Leslie Innasimuthu ◽  
Sanjay Kumar ◽  
Jason Lazar ◽  
William E. Katz

Because the natural progression of low-gradient aortic stenosis (LGAS) has not been well defined, we performed a retrospective study of 116 consecutive patients with aortic stenosis who had undergone follow-up echocardiography at a median interval of 698 days (range, 371–1,020 d). All patients had preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (&gt;0.50) during and after follow-up. At baseline, patients were classified by aortic valve area (AVA) as having mild stenosis (≥1.5 cm2), moderate stenosis (≥1 to &lt;1.5 cm2), or severe stenosis (&lt;1 cm2). Severe aortic stenosis was further classified by mean gradient (LGAS, mean &lt;40 mmHg; high-gradient aortic stenosis [HGAS], mean ≥40 mmHg). We compared baseline and follow-up values among 4 groups: patients with mild stenosis, moderate stenosis, LGAS, and HGAS. At baseline, 30 patients had mild stenosis, 54 had moderate stenosis, 24 had LGAS, and 8 had HGAS. Compared with the moderate group, the LGAS group had lower AVA but similar mean gradient. Yet the actuarial curves for progressing to HGAS were significantly different: 25% of patients in LGAS reached HGAS status significantly earlier than did 25% of patients in the moderate-AS group (713 vs 881 d; P=0.035). Because LGAS has a high propensity to progress to HGAS, we propose that low-gradient aortic stenosis patients be closely monitored as a distinct subgroup that warrants more frequent echocardiographic follow-up.


ESC CardioMed ◽  
2018 ◽  
pp. 2666-2667
Author(s):  
Bernard Iung ◽  
Luc A. Pierard

The evaluation of the risk of non-cardiac surgery in patients with valvular disease should take into account the type, severity, and tolerance of valvular disease, and the risk inherent to non-cardiac surgery. Aortic stenosis carries the highest risk of perioperative complications. Except for emergency non-cardiac surgery, an intervention on the aortic valve is indicated firstly in case of severe symptomatic aortic stenosis. In asymptomatic patients, low- and intermediate-risk non-cardiac surgery can be performed, while the strategy should be individualized for high-risk non-cardiac surgery. Balloon aortic valvuloplasty may be used as a bridge if non-cardiac surgery is urgent. Percutaneous mitral commissurotomy should be considered in symptomatic patients with severe mitral stenosis. In patients with severe aortic or mitral regurgitation, the risk of non-cardiac surgery is low if they are asymptomatic with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. In patients with a mechanical prosthesis, perioperative anticoagulant therapy should be adapted to the haemorrhagic risk of intervention and to the patient- and prosthesis-related thromboembolic risk.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 204800402092240
Author(s):  
Mariya Kuk ◽  
Simon Newsome ◽  
Francisco Alpendurada ◽  
Marc Dweck ◽  
Dudley J Pennell ◽  
...  

Objective With increasing age, the prevalence of aortic stenosis grows exponentially, increasing left heart pressures and potentially leading to myocardial hypertrophy, myocardial fibrosis and adverse outcomes. To identify patients who are at greatest risk, an outpatient model for risk stratification would be of value to better direct patient imaging, frequency of monitoring and expeditious management of aortic stenosis with possible earlier surgical intervention. In this study, a relatively simple model is proposed to identify myocardial fibrosis in patients with a diagnosis of moderate or severe aortic stenosis. Design Patients with moderate to severe aortic stenosis were enrolled into the study; patient characteristics, blood work, medications as well as transthoracic echocardiography and cardiovascular magnetic resonance were used to determine potential identifiers of myocardial fibrosis. Setting The Royal Brompton Hospital, London, UK Participants One hundred and thirteen patients in derivation cohort and 26 patients in validation cohort. Main outcome measures Identification of myocardial fibrosis. Results Three blood biomarkers (serum platelets, serum urea, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) and left ventricular ejection fraction were shown to be capable of identifying myocardial fibrosis. The model was validated in a separate cohort of 26 patients. Conclusions Although further external validation of the model is necessary prior to its use in clinical practice, the proposed clinical model may direct patient care with respect to earlier magnetic resonance imagining, frequency of monitoring and may help in risk stratification for surgical intervention for myocardial fibrosis in patients with aortic stenosis.


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