P1643An exploratory analysis for the optimal monitoring interval of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide in patients with stable heart failure
Abstract Background N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a potential biomarker for monitoring the status of heart failure. However, the optimal monitoring interval is unknown. This study aims to investigate minimal informative monitoring interval of NT-proBNP in patients with stable chronic heart failure. Methods In this retrospective open cohort study, adult patients followed up at a tertiary hospital for chronic heart failure with NT-proBNP measurements were included if they had been previously admitted due to acute heart failure and were free from readmission over 6 months after discharge. We analyzed NT-proBNP measured between 6 months after discharge and the timepoint of an alteration of medication regimen or readmission due to worsening of heart failure. To distinguish actual progression of the disease from biological variability and measurement error, the signal-to-noise ratio method was applied with a random-effects model. Stratified analysis was performed according to underlying risks. Results In this analysis, 368 patients were included with NT-proBNP measured between July 2009 and December 2017. The patients had 6.0 times of NT-proBNP measurements in median (interquartile range [IQR] 4.0–10.0) during the follow-up period (median 12.0 months [IQR 6.0–27.0]). In the estimates of the random-effects model, signal (i.e. actual progression of the disease) exceeded noise (i.e. biological variability and measurement error) at 8.1 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.7–10.1) after the index measurement. In a subgroup analysis according to the AHEAD risk score, the minimal informative monitoring interval was shortened as the risk score increased (0–1 point: 12.3 months [95% CI: 10.3–14.5]; 2–3 points: 8.0 months [95% CI: 6.8–9.7]; 4–5 points: 3.3 months [95% CI: 3.0–3.8]; Figure). Informative intervals stratified by risk Conclusion In patients with stable chronic heart failure, the overall minimal informative monitoring interval of NT-proBNP measurement was 8.1 months, which varies by underlying risk. The optimal monitoring interval could be lengthened especially for patients at lower risk.