scholarly journals Quantitative environmental risk assessments in the context of marine spatial management: current approaches and some perspectives

2014 ◽  
Vol 72 (3) ◽  
pp. 1022-1042 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Stelzenmüller ◽  
H. O. Fock ◽  
A. Gimpel ◽  
H. Rambo ◽  
R. Diekmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Bayesian Belief Network ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Belief Network ◽  
Spatial Management

Abstract Marine spatial planning (MSP) requires spatially explicit environmental risk assessment (ERA) frameworks with quantitative or probabilistic measures of risk, enabling an evaluation of spatial management scenarios. ERAs comprise the steps of risk identification, risk analysis, and risk evaluation. A review of ERAs in in the context of spatial management revealed a synonymous use of the concepts of risk, vulnerability and impact, a need to account for uncertainty and a lack of a clear link between risk analysis and risk evaluation. In a case study, we addressed some of the identified gaps and predicted the risk of changing the current state of benthic disturbance by bottom trawling due to future MSP measures in the German EEZ of the North Sea. We used a quantitative, dynamic, and spatially explicit approach where we combined a Bayesian belief network with GIS to showcase the steps of risk characterization, risk analysis, and risk evaluation. We distinguished 10 benthic communities and 6 international fishing fleets. The risk analysis produced spatially explicit estimates of benthic disturbance, which was computed as a ratio between relative local mortality by benthic trawling and the recovery potential after a trawl event. Results showed great differences in spatial patterns of benthic disturbance when accounting for different environmental impacts of the respective fleets. To illustrate a risk evaluation process, we simulated a spatial shift of the international effort of two beam trawl fleets, which are affected the most by future offshore wind development. The Bayesian belief network (BN) model was able to predict the proportion of the area where benthic disturbance likely increases. In conclusion, MSP processes should embed ERA frameworks which allow for the integration of multiple risk assessments and the quantification of related risks as well as uncertainties at a common spatial scale.

scholarly journals A BOW-TIE BASED RISK FRAMEWORK INTEGRATED WITH A BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK APPLIED TO THE PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Cristiano Pereira ◽  
Gilson Brito Alves Lima ◽  
Annibal Parracho Santanna
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Manufacturing Process ◽  
Bayesian Belief Network ◽  
Jet Engines ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Probabilistic Risk Analysis ◽  
Belief Network ◽  
Risk Framework ◽  
Bow Tie ◽  
Probabilistic Risk

The use of probabilistic risk analysis in the jet engines manufacturing process is essential to prevent failure. It has been observed in the literature about risk management that the standard risk assessment is normally inadequate to address the risks in this process. To remedy this problem, the methodology presented in this paper covers the construction of a probabilistic risk analysis model, based on Bayesian Belief Network coupled to a bow-tie diagram. It considers the effects of human, software and calibration reliability to identify critical risk factors in this process. The application of this methodology to a particular jet engine manufacturing process is presented to demonstrate the viability of the proposed approach.

scholarly journals Development of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Systems for Logistics System

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-103
Author(s):  
Ahmad Rusdiansyah ◽  
Della Deswiana Pratama ◽  
Muhammad Faisal Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Logistics System ◽  
Risk Response

Logistic activities are significant activities that pose various risks for the company. These risks can affect the company’s performance. To be able to compete in the globalization era, companies need proper risk management. This study aimed to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Systems. We offered four stages: risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation, and risk response. A case study was conducted to implement the proposed Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Systems. The results indicated that the proposed Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Systems were proven effective to be appropriately applied to evaluate company risks and provide mitigation recommendations.

scholarly journals Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard M. Anderson ◽  
Andrea E. Copping ◽  
Frances B. Van Cleve ◽  
Stephen D. Unwin ◽  
Erin L. Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Risk Evaluation System

scholarly journals Malware Risk Analysis on the Campus Network with Bayesian Belief Network

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 115-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aliyu Mohammed ◽  
Haitham A. Jamil ◽  
Sulaiman Mohd Nor ◽  
Muhammad NadzirMarsono
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Belief Network ◽  
Campus Network ◽  
Belief Network

Environmental Risk Evaluation on Integrated Circuit Industry

2012 ◽  
Vol 209-211 ◽  
pp. 1203-1206
Author(s):  
Rong Jun Su
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Integrated Circuit ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Source Analysis ◽  
Emergency Plan ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Risk Source ◽  
Integrated Circuit Industry ◽  
And Storage

In order to evaluate the environmental risk of integrated circuit industry, a new integrated circuit chip project was taken as an example to be investigated and analyzed. Its engineering features, process flow, risk identification, risk source intensity and measures to prevent risks were proposed. Risk identification shows that main poisonous and harmful chemicals(PHC) are corrosives and antioxidants, flammable gases and liquids and poisonous gases. Transportation, production and storage risk of PHC and potential accidental risk caused by external factors were proposed. Risk source analysis indicates that the probability of damaging and leaking accidents on facilities is 10-1 times/year. In the case of cylinders leakage, leakage rates of SiF4, Cl2 and ClF3 will be 17 g/s, 8 g/s and 8 g/s respectively. Evaporation rates of isopropyl alcohol, HF and HCl acids are 0.09 g/s. 0.38 g/s and 55 g/s respectively. Finally, Overall layout and construction safety measures, safety precautions on dangerous chemical storage and transportation, technology design and automatic control design, and emergency plan to prevent risk accident were also proponed. This work will be helpful for environmental impact assessment on similar industries.

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