How Is the Risk of Major Sudden Infectious Epidemic Transmitted? A Grounded Theory Analysis Based on COVID-19 in China

The outbreak of a sudden infectious epidemic often causes serious casualties and property losses to the whole society. The COVID-19 epidemic that broke out in China at the end of December 2019, spread rapidly, resulting in large groups of confirmed diagnoses, and causing severe damage to China's society. This epidemic even now encompasses the globe. This paper takes the COVID-19 epidemic that has occurred in China as an example, the original data of this paper is derived from 20 Chinese media reports on COVID-19, and the grounded theory is used to analyze the original data to find the risk transmission rules of a sudden infectious epidemic. The results show that in the risk transmission of a sudden infectious epidemic, there are six basic elements: the risk source, the risk early warning, the risk transmission path, the risk transmission victims, the risk transmission inflection point, and the end of risk transmission. After a sudden infectious epidemic breaks out, there are three risk transmission paths, namely, a medical system risk transmission path, a social system risk transmission path, and a psychological risk transmission path, and these three paths present a coupling structure. These findings in this paper suggest that people should strengthen the emergency management of a sudden infectious epidemic by controlling of the risk source, establishing an efficient and scientific risk early warning mechanism and blocking of the risk transmission paths. The results of this study can provide corresponding policy implications for the emergency management of sudden public health events.

ANALISIS RISIKO PRODUKSI USAHA SARANG BURUNG WALET (Collacalia Fuciphagus) DI KABUPATEN TANA TIDUNG

AbstrakMembangun usaha sarang burung walet rumahan bukanlah hal yang mudah, selain harus benar-benar memahami cara mendatangkan burung,merawat sarang sampai tahap panen. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk, 1) mengetahui sumber–sumber risiko produksi dan dampaknya terhadap usaha sarang burung walet; 2) merumuskan strategi mengatasi risiko produksi usaha sarang burung walet di Kabupaten Tana Tidung. Penelitian ini dilakukan pada 30 peternak sarang walet di Kecamatan Sesayap Kabupaten Tana Tidung. Analisis yang digunakan yaitu analisis deskriptif, analisis probabilitas, Z-score dan Value At Risk (VaR). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sumber–sumber risiko produksi usaha sarang burung walet yang teridentifikasi yaitu perubahan cuaca dan kesalahan tenaga kerja. Sumber risiko terbesar adalah perubahan cuaca pada periode ke II dengan probabilitas sebesar 72% dan dampak yang paling sebesar pada periode ke III sebesar Rp. 2.630.704. Sedangkan sumber risiko kesalahan tenaga kerja pada periode II dengan probabilitas sebesar 68% dan dampak yang paling besar pada periode ke I sebesar Rp. 589.111. Strategi penanganan sumber risiko perubahan cuaca/iklim dengan strategi preventif yaitu membuat ventilasi udara dan menggunakan alat pengukur thermo hygrometer, selanjutnya strategi mitigasi yaitu pengisian air menggunakan wadah bak atau baskom. Sumber risiko kesalahan tenaga kerja menggunakan strategi preventif yaitu memberikan pengetahuan dan keterampilan melalui penyuluhan. Kata Kunci : Sarang Burung Walet, Sumber Risiko, Analisis Risiko, Penanganan Risiko AbstractBuilding a home swallow nest business is not easy, apart from having to really understand how to bring in birds, care for the nest until the harvest stage. This study aims to, 1) determine the sources of production risk and their impact on swallow's nest business; 2) formulating a strategy to overcome the risk of production in the swallow's nest business in Tana Tidung Regency. This research was conducted on 30 swallow nest breeders in Sesayap District, Tana Tidung Regency. The analysis used is descriptive analysis, probability analysis, Z-score and Value At Risk (VaR). The results showed that the identified sources of risk in the production of swallow's nest business were weather changes and labor errors. The biggest risk source is weather changes in the second period with a probability of 72% and the greatest impact in the third period of Rp. 2,630,704. While the source of the risk of labor error in period II with a probability of 68% and the greatest impact in the first period of Rp. 589,111. The strategy for handling the risk source of weather / climate change with a preventive strategy is to make air ventilation and use a thermo hygrometer measuring device, then the mitigation strategy is to fill water using a tub or basin container. The source of the risk of labor error using a preventive strategy, namely providing knowledge and skills through counseling.. Keywords: Swallow's Nest, Risk Sources, Risk Analysis, Risk Management

Environmental Risk Assessment and Regulatory Rating of Water Sources along the Yangtze River’s Nanjing Section under the Influence of Multiple Risk Sources

To complement the current studies of risk assessment on water sources which seldom consider the distribution effects of multiple risk sources concentration, and improve the efficiency of water source supervision, this study establishes a method system for risk assessment of water sources and regulatory rating evaluation under the distribution effects of multiple risk sources concentration. The method system includes: (1) utilizing the single-risk source impact index to characterize the risk impact degree of the single-risk source on the water source, the index calculation method of single-risk source impact considers the risk degree and the distribution location of risk source; (2) using the multiple risk sources impact index to characterize the risk impact degree of the multiple risk sources on the water source, the index calculation method of multiple risk sources considers the impact index of single-risk source, the number of risk sources, and the distribution concentration of multiple risk sources; (3) the environmental risk assessment and regulatory rating evaluation method consider multiple risk sources impact index, anti-risk ability of water source, and the importance of water source. This method system has been applied to the environmental risk assessment and regulatory rating of eight water sources along the Nanjing Yangtze River, with excellent achievements. As the results reveal, eight water sources suffer 437 risk impacts from 175 risk sources, 69.04% of which are low-risk impacts and 13 are high-risk impacts. Longtan water source suffers the most risk impacts of 86, among which eight are high-risk impacts. The impacts of multiply-risk sources on the eight water sources are high-risk impacts. The impact index of multiple risk sources increases from the upstream water sources to the downstream water sources, reaching the maximum value of 5.267 at the most downstream Longtan water source. Though the environmental risk and supervision rating of Longtan water source is high, those of other water sources are rated as medium.

Risk Factors for Mortality among Patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa Bloodstream Infections: What Is the Influence of XDR Phenotype on Outcomes?

This study aimed to assess the impact of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) phenotype on mortality in Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteremia. A retrospective cohort study was performed in a tertiary hospital from January 2000 to December 2018. All consecutive prospectively recorded P. aeruginosa bacteremia in adult patients were assessed. In this study, 382 patients were included, of which 122 (31.9%) due to XDR P. aeruginosa. Independent factors associated with 14-day mortality were as follows: high-risk source of bacteremia (hazard ratio (HR) 3.07, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.73–5.46), septic shock (HR 1.75, 95% CI, 1.12–2.75), and higher Pitt scores (one-point increments; HR 1.25, 95% CI, 1.12–1.38). Otherwise, the appropriateness of definitive antibiotic therapy was a protective factor (HR 0.39, 95% CI, 0.24–0.62). The same variables were also associated with 30-day mortality. XDR phenotype was not associated with 14- or 30-day mortality. In a subanalysis considering only high-risk source cases, combined antimicrobial therapy was independently associated with 14-day favorable outcome (HR 0.56, 95% CI, 0.33–0.93). In conclusion, XDR phenotype was not associated with poor prognosis in patients with P. aeruginosa bacteremia in our cohort. However, source of infection, clinical severity, and inappropriate definitive antibiotic therapy were risk factors for mortality. Combined antimicrobial therapy should be considered for high-risk sources.