Revisiting real exchange rate volatility: non-traded goods and cointegrated TFP shocks

2019 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aydan Dogan ◽  
Timo Bettendorf
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Real Exchange Rate Volatility

Abstract International real business cycle (IRBC) models predict a real exchange rate volatility that is much lower than the levels observed in the data. In this paper, we build a two-country IRBC model with both a traded and a non-traded goods sector, and calibrate it to UK-euro area (EA) data. We provide evidence on the existence of a cointegrating relationship between UK and EA traded sector total factor productivity (TFP) by estimating a vector error correction model (VECM). To account for this relationship, we incorporate non-stationary technology shocks in the traded sectors in our model, and show that then the model is able to match the observed volatility of the UK–EA real exchange rate. Our analysis points out that both the presence of non-traded sectors and non-stationary technology shocks are necessary to account for the observed volatility in the real exchange rate.

scholarly journals The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 72-83
Author(s):  
Mohd Shahidan Shaari ◽  
Nor Ermawati Hussain ◽  
Hafizah Abdul Rarhim
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Integration Technique ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are influenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done and found that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has an influence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under control should be implemented to control unemployment.

scholarly journals Exchange rate Pass-through in russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 21-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Ponomarev ◽  
P. Trunin ◽  
A. Ulyukayev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

The article provides estimates of short-run and medium-run exchange rate pass-through in Russia during the period of 2000-2012 using vector error correction model. Estimates of asymmetry of exchange rate pass-through, its assessments in different sub-periods and exchange rate volatility effect are also presented.

scholarly journals Exploring the Influence of Commodity Prices, Real Exchange Rate and Trade Openness on Economic Performance in an Emerging Country

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 80
Author(s):  
Ipeleng Ntshwe ◽  
Rufaro Garidzirai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Johansen Cointegration

Do commodity prices, real exchange rate and trade openness influence economic growth in South Africa? This question is fundamental to academic research since it forms the basis of macroeconomic policies. Therefore, the comprehension of such a relationship is vital which has ushered this study into investigating the effect of real exchange rate, commodity prices and trade openness on economic growth in South Africa from 1984-2019. The purpose of this study is to contribute to the diverse literature on macroeconomics and international trade in the continent and the rest of the world. To achieve this, the Johansen cointegration method and Vector Error Correction Model were employed. The Johansen cointegration method confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. Commodity prices and trade openness positively influenced economic growth while real exchange rate inversely influenced economic growth. The Vector Error Correction Model also confirmed that the disequilibrium in the model can be corrected in 1 year 9 months. The study`s findings suggest a methodical monetary policy synthesis that controls both the commodity price stability and exchange rate that spurs economic growth.

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Mongolia

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 211-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gan-Ochir Doojav
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

For resource-rich developing economies, the effect of real exchange rate depreciation on trade balance may differ from the standard findings depending on country specific characteristics. This article employs vector error correction model to examine the effect of real exchange rate on trade balance in Mongolia, a resource-rich developing country. Empirical results show that exchange rate depreciation improves trade balance in both short and long run. In particular, the well-known Marshall–Lerner condition holds in the long run; however, there is no evidence of the classic J-curve effects in the short run. The results suggest that the exchange rate flexibility may help to deal effectively with current account deficits and exchange rate risk. JEL Classification: C32, C51, F14, F32

scholarly journals Dampak Perubahan Nilai Tukar terhadap Indeks Harga Konsumen Bahan Makanan di Indonesia

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Siti Suarsih ◽  
Noer Azam Achsani ◽  
Nunung Nuryartono
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Pass Through

Exchange Rate Change Effects on Indonesia’s Foodstuff Consumer Price IndexThe fluctuation in exchange rate Indonesia may have an impact on the price of imported goods both consumer goods (finished goods) and raw materials. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of exchange rate changes on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of foods categories and analyze the role of the exchange rate in explaining fluctuations in the CPI of food category in Indonesia. Econometric analysis using vector error correction model, indicates that the greatest degree of pass-through occurs in the consumer price index groups of milk and eggs. Contributions of exchange rate as the result of decomposition of forecasting error variance is largest in the meat category.Keywords: Exchange Rate Pass-Through; Consumer Price Index of Foodstu; Vector Error Correction ModelAbstrakPerubahan nilai tukar dapat berdampak pada harga barang-barang yang diimpor baik barang konsumsi (barang jadi) maupun bahan baku. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak perubahan nilai tukar terhadap Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) kelompok bahan makanan dan menganalisis peranan nilai tukar dalam menjelaskan fluktuasi IHK bahan makanan di Indonesia. Analisa ekonometri menggunakan vector error correction model, menunjukkan bahwa derajat pass-through terbesar terjadi pada kelompok indeks harga konsumen susu dan telor. Kontribusi nilai tukar hasil decomposition of forecasting error variance terbesar terjadi pada kelompok daging.

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