Planning for Mass Unemployment

Author(s):  
Aaron James

What Keynes called “technological unemployment” is not yet upon us. Many agree that, if or when it is upon us, society will be forced to pay a basic income. This chapter argues that we shouldn’t wait. The chance of mass unemployment is credible. The outcome would be terrible. And a “precautionary basic income” is relatively cheap. So, much like buying a fire extinguisher for one’s home, we should take precautionary action before the risk of technological mass unemployment becomes likely. This is consistent with a cost-benefit analysis, when the benefits of business-as-usual are appropriately discounted. Precautionary action may well cost us nothing in the longer run. But even if it will cost something in forgone growth, the rich world shouldn’t worry, for three reasons: (1) The more we gain in GDP, the less and less it does for our happiness; (2) work for GDP is expensive in time lost; and (3) further GDP gains have less value than comparable security benefits to the less well-off.

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 454-469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kjell Hausken

Purpose Among the many perspectives to analyze war, such as rational actor, organizational process, governmental politics and ethics, the perspective that actually incorporates the costs and benefits into a systematic theoretical structure has hardly been analyzed. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the costs and benefits perspective. Design/methodology/approach Three kinds of value are distinguished, i.e. human, economic and influence. Different actors (politicians, populations, stakeholders, etc). assign different weights to the three kinds of value. Six gradually more complicated models are developed. The first subtracts losses from gains for the three kinds of value. Thereafter, the paper accounts for multiple periods, time discounting, attitude towards risk, multiple stakeholders, subcategories for the three kinds of value, sequential decision-making and game theory. Findings The rich theoretical structure enables assessing costs and benefits more systematically and illuminatingly. The cost benefit analysis is illustrated with the 2003-2011 Iraq War. The paper estimates gained and lost value of human lives, economic value and influence value, and show how different weights impact the decision of whether to initiate war differently. Originality/value The paper provides scientists and policy makers with a theoretical structure within which to evaluate the costs and benefits of war, accounting for how different actors estimate weights, the future, risk and a variety of parameter values differently.


2011 ◽  
pp. 57-78
Author(s):  
I. Pilipenko

The paper analyzes shortcomings of economic impact studies based mainly on input- output models that are often employed in Russia as well as abroad. Using studies about sport events in the USA and Olympic Games that took place during the last 30 years we reveal advantages of the cost-benefit analysis approach in obtaining unbiased assessments of public investments efficiency; the step-by-step method of cost-benefit analysis is presented in the paper as well. We employ the project of Sochi-2014 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games in Russia to evaluate its efficiency using cost-benefit analysis for five accounts (areas of impact), namely government, households, environment, economic development, and social development, and calculate the net present value of the project taking into account its possible alternatives. In conclusion we suggest several policy directions that would enhance public investment efficiency within the Sochi-2014 Olympics.


2007 ◽  
pp. 70-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Demidova

This article analyzes definitions and the role of hostile takeovers at the Russian and European markets for corporate control. It develops the methodology of assessing the efficiency of anti-takeover defenses adapted to the conditions of the Russian market. The paper uses the cost-benefit analysis, where the costs and benefits of the pre-bid and post-bid defenses are compared.


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