Planning for Mass Unemployment
What Keynes called “technological unemployment” is not yet upon us. Many agree that, if or when it is upon us, society will be forced to pay a basic income. This chapter argues that we shouldn’t wait. The chance of mass unemployment is credible. The outcome would be terrible. And a “precautionary basic income” is relatively cheap. So, much like buying a fire extinguisher for one’s home, we should take precautionary action before the risk of technological mass unemployment becomes likely. This is consistent with a cost-benefit analysis, when the benefits of business-as-usual are appropriately discounted. Precautionary action may well cost us nothing in the longer run. But even if it will cost something in forgone growth, the rich world shouldn’t worry, for three reasons: (1) The more we gain in GDP, the less and less it does for our happiness; (2) work for GDP is expensive in time lost; and (3) further GDP gains have less value than comparable security benefits to the less well-off.