Teleconnections
Mankind has long been intrigued by the possibility that weather in one location is related to weather somewhere else, especially somewhere very far away. The fascination may be mostly related to possible predictions that could be based on such relationships. The severe weather that harmed the British Army in the Crimea in November 1854 (Lindgrén and Neumann 1980) was due to a weather system moving across Europe, suggesting it could have been anticipated from observations upstream. It took analyses of many surface weathermaps, an activity starting around 1850, to see how weather systems have certain horizontal dimensions, thousands of kilometers in fact, and move around in semisystematic ways. It thus followed that, in a transient sense, the weather at two places can be related, and in a time-lagged sense that weather observed at one (or more) places serves as a predictor for weather at other locations. The other reason for fascination with teleconnection might be called “system analysis”. The idea that given an impulse at some location (“input”) a reaction can be expected thousands of miles away (the “output”) through a chain of events, is intriguing and should tell us about the workings of the system. It is akin to an engineer testing electronic equipment. Unfortunately, Nature is not a laboratory experiment where we can organize these impulses. Only by systematically observing what Nature presents us with, may we dare to search for teleconnections in some aggregate way. The word teleconnection suggests a connection at long distance, but a stricter definition requires some thought and pruning down of endless possibilities. We need to make choices about (a) simultaneous vs time-lagged teleconnections, (b) correlations vs other measures of “connection”, (c) transient vs standing teleconnections, (d) teleconnections in filtered data (e.g. seasonal means) vs unfiltered instantaneous (e.g. daily) data, and (e) one or more variables. On (a), (b) and (e) our choice in this chapter is simultaneous, use of linear correlation (except in section 4.3 where other measures of teleconnection are discussed), and a single variable respectively. On possibilities (c) and (d) we keep our options open.