Macroeconomic Tail Risks and Asset Prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 3541-3582 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Schreindorfer
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Oxford University ◽  
Excess Volatility ◽  
Equity Index ◽  
Published Paper

Abstract I document that dividend growth and returns on the aggregate U.S. stock market are more correlated with consumption growth in bad economic times. In a consumption-based asset pricing model with a generalized disappointment-averse investor and small, IID consumption shocks, this feature results in a realistic equity premium despite low risk aversion. The model is consistent with the main facts about stock market risk premiums inferred from equity index options, remains tightly parameterized, and allows for analytical solutions for asset prices. An extension with non-IID dynamics accounts for excess volatility and return predictability, while preserving the model’s consistency with option moments. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Testing for Multiple-Horizon Predictability: Direct Regression Based versus Implication Based

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 4403-4443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ke-Li Xu
Keyword(s):  
Equity Premium ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Asset Return ◽  
Predictive Regression ◽  
Oxford University ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Direct Regression ◽  
Published Paper

Abstract Research in finance and macroeconomics has routinely employed multiple horizons to test asset return predictability. In a simple predictive regression model, we find the popular scaled test can have zero power when the predictor is not sufficiently persistent. A new test based on implication of the short-run model is suggested and is shown to be uniformly more powerful than the scaled test. The new test can accommodate multiple predictors. Compared with various other widely used tests, simulation experiments demonstrate remarkable finite-sample performance. We reexamine the predictive ability of various popular predictors for aggregate equity premium. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

ENDOGENOUS PARTICIPATION, RISK, AND LEARNING IN THE STOCK MARKET

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Shin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Participation Rates ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Excess Volatility ◽  
Subjective Risk ◽  
Cross Country

A simple asset pricing model with both endogenous stock market participation and subjective risk can explain the negative cross-country correlation between participation rates and the volatility of excess returns, along with the time-varying participation rates in the data. Belief-driven learning dynamics can explain the interplay between participation rates, subjective risk, and stock price volatility. When agents adaptively learn about the risk and return, my model generates 25% of the excess volatility observed in US stock prices, while also matching key moments. With learning about risk, excess volatility of stock prices is driven by fluctuations in the participation rate that arise because agents’ risk estimates vary with prices. I find that learning about risk is quantitatively more important than learning about returns.

Beta Risk in the Cross-Section of Equities

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 4318-4366
Author(s):  
Ali Boloorforoosh ◽  
Peter Christoffersen ◽  
Mathieu Fournier ◽  
Christian Gouriéroux
Keyword(s):  
Expected Returns ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Stochastic Discount Factor ◽  
Security Market ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Oxford University ◽  
Beta Risk ◽  
High Beta ◽  
Published Paper

Abstract We develop a conditional capital asset pricing model in continuous time that allows for stochastic beta exposure. When beta comoves with market variance and the stochastic discount factor (SDF), beta risk is priced, and the expected return on a stock deviates from the security market line. The model predicts that low-beta stocks earn high returns, because their beta positively comoves with market variance and the SDF. The opposite is true for high-beta stocks. Estimating the model on equity and option data, we find that beta risk explains expected returns on low- and high-beta stocks, resolving the “betting against beta” anomaly. Authors have furnished code and an Internet Appendix, which are available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Equity Is Cheap for Large Financial Institutions

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 4231-4271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priyank Gandhi ◽  
Hanno Lustig ◽  
Alberto Plazzi
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Capital Regulation ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Oxford University ◽  
Rare Disasters ◽  
Country Characteristics ◽  
Nonfinancial Firms ◽  
Published Paper

Abstract Across a wide panel of countries, the top-10% of financial stocks on average account for over 20% of a country’s market capitalization but earn on average significantly lower returns than do nonfinancial firms of the same size and risk exposures. In a bailout-augmented, rare disasters asset pricing model, the spread in risk-adjusted returns between large and small institutions depends on country characteristics that determine the likelihood of bailouts. Consistent with this model, we find larger spreads in countries with large and interconnected financial sectors, weaker capital regulation and corporate governance, and fiscally stronger governments. Valuation gaps increase in anticipation of financial crises. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

scholarly journals Socioeconomic Status and Macroeconomic Expectations

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 395-432 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sreyoshi Das ◽  
Camelia M Kuhnen ◽  
Stefan Nagel
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Status ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Durable Goods ◽  
Low Ses ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Oxford University ◽  
Editorial Decision ◽  
Business Conditions ◽  
Published Paper

Abstract We show that individuals’ macroeconomic expectations are influenced by their socioeconomic status (SES). People with higher income or higher education are more optimistic about future macroeconomic developments, including business conditions, the national unemployment rate, and stock market returns. The spread in beliefs between high- and low-SES individuals diminishes significantly during recessions. A comparison with professional forecasters and historical data reveals that the beliefs wedge reflects excessive pessimism on the part of low-SES individuals. SES-driven expectations help explain why higher-SES individuals are more inclined to invest in the stock market and more likely to consider purchasing homes, durable goods, or cars. Received November 13, 2017; editorial decision February 12, 2019 by Editor Wei Jiang. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

scholarly journals Salience and Asset Prices

2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (3) ◽  
pp. 623-628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Bordalo ◽  
Nicola Gennaioli ◽  
Andrei Shleifer
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Market Valuation ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Risky Assets ◽  
Very High

We present a simple model of asset pricing in which payoff salience drives investors' demand for risky assets. The key implication is that extreme payoffs receive disproportionate weight in the market valuation of assets. The model accounts for several puzzles in finance in an intuitive way, including preference for assets with a chance of very high payoffs, an aggregate equity premium, and countercyclical variation in stock market returns.

Stock Market Rumors and Credibility

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 3804-3853
Author(s):  
Daniel Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Information Sharing ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Investment Horizon ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Oxford University ◽  
Credible Information ◽  
Published Paper

Abstract Stock prices occasionally move in response to unverified rumors. I propose a cheap talk model in which a rumormonger’s incentives to tell the truth depend on the interaction between her investment horizon and the information acquisition decisions of message-receiving investors. The model’s key prediction is that short investment horizons can facilitate credible information sharing between investors, thereby accelerating the information capitalization into market prices. Analyzing a data set of takeover rumors covered by U.S. newspapers, I find suggestive evidence in support of this prediction. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

scholarly journals Resiliency of Environmental and Social Stocks: An Analysis of the Exogenous COVID-19 Market Crash

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 593-621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Albuquerque ◽  
Yrjo Koskinen ◽  
Shuai Yang ◽  
Chendi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Web Site ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Profit Margins ◽  
Oxford University ◽  
Operating Profit ◽  
Editorial Decision ◽  
Published Paper

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent lockdown brought about an exogenous and unparalleled stock market crash. The crisis thus provides a unique opportunity to test theories of environmental and social (ES) policies. This paper shows that stocks with higher ES ratings have significantly higher returns, lower return volatility, and higher operating profit margins during the first quarter of 2020. ES firms with higher advertising expenditures experience higher stock returns, and stocks held by more ES-oriented investors experience less return volatility during the crash. This paper highlights the importance of customer and investor loyalty to the resiliency of ES stocks. (JEL G12, G32, M14) Received: June 3, 2020; editorial decision June 24, 2020 by Editor Andrew Ellul. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

scholarly journals Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 35-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emi Nakamura ◽  
Jón Steinsson ◽  
Robert Barro ◽  
José Ursúa
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Empirical Model ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Elasticity Of Substitution ◽  
Market Crashes

We estimate an empirical model of consumption disasters using new data on consumption for 24 countries over more than 100 years, and study its implications for asset prices. The model allows for partial recoveries after disasters that unfold over multiple years. We find that roughly half of the drop in consumption due to disasters is subsequently reversed. Our model generates a sizable equity premium from disaster risk, but one that is substantially smaller than in simpler models. It implies that a large value of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is necessary to explain stock-market crashes at the onset of disasters. (JEL E21, E32, E44, G12, G14)

scholarly journals On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends

2012 ◽  
Vol 102 (4) ◽  
pp. 1596-1618 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jules van Binsbergen ◽  
Michael Brandt ◽  
Ralph Koijen
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Present Evidence ◽  
Excess Volatility ◽  
Sharpe Ratios

We present evidence on the term structure of the equity premium. We recover prices of dividend strips, which are short-term assets that pay dividends on the stock index every period up to period T and nothing thereafter. It is short-term relative to the index because the index pays dividends in perpetuity. We find that expected returns, Sharpe ratios, and volatilities on short-term assets are higher than on the index, while their CAPM betas are below one. Short-term assets are more volatile than their realizations, leading to excess volatility and return predictability. Our findings are inconsistent with many leading theories.

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