scholarly journals In Action – An Early Warning System for the Detection of Unexpected or Novel Pathogens

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pauline Dianne Santos ◽  
Ute Ziegler ◽  
Kevin Szillat ◽  
Claudia A Szentiks ◽  
Birte Strobel ◽  
...  

Abstract Pro-active approaches in preventing future epidemics include pathogen discovery prior to their emergence in human and/or animal populations. Playing an important role in pathogen discovery, high-throughput sequencing (HTS) enables the characterization of microbial and viral genetic diversity within a given sample. In particular, metagenomic HTS allows the unbiased taxonomic profiling of sequences; hence, it can identify novel and highly divergent pathogens such as viruses. Newly discovered viral sequences must be further investigated using genomic characterization, molecular and serological screening, and/or in-vitro and in-vivo characterization. Several outbreak and surveillance studies apply unbiased generic HTS to characterize whole genome sequences of suspected pathogens. In contrast, this study aimed to screen for novel and unexpected pathogens in previously generated HTS datasets and use this information as a starting point for the establishment of an early warning system (EWS). As a proof of concept, the EWS was applied to HTS datasets and archived samples from the 2018-19 West Nile virus (WNV) epidemic in Germany. A metagenomics read classifier detected sequences related to genome sequences of various members of Riboviria. We focused the further EWS investigation on viruses belonging to the families Peribunyaviridae and Reoviridae, under suspicion of causing co-infections in WNV-infected birds. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that the reovirus genome sequences clustered with sequences assigned to the species Umatilla virus, whereas a new peribunyavirid, tentatively named “Hedwig virus” belonged to a putative novel genus of the family Peribunyaviridae. In follow up studies, newly developed molecular diagnostic assays detected fifteen Umatilla virus-positive wild birds from different German cities and eight Hedwig virus-positive captive birds from two zoological gardens. Umatilla virus was successfully cultivated in mosquito C6/36 cells inoculated with a blackbird liver. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the power of the applied EWS for the discovery and characterization of unexpected viruses in repurposed sequence datasets, followed by virus screening and cultivation using archived sample material. The EWS enhances the strategies for pathogen recognition before causing sporadic cases and massive outbreaks and proves to be a reliable tool for modern outbreak preparedness.

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez ◽  
Ivonne Cruz-Paz ◽  
Martin Muñoz Mandujano

Forecasting extreme precipitations is one of the main priorities of hydrology in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Flood damage in urban areas increases every year, and is mainly caused by convective precipitations and hurricanes. In addition, hydrometeorological monitoring is limited in most countries in this region. Therefore, one of the primary challenges in the LAC region the development of a good rainfall forecasting model that can be used in an early warning system (EWS) or a flood early warning system (FEWS). The aim of this study was to provide an effective forecast of short-term rainfall using a set of climatic variables, based on the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship and taking into account that atmospheric water vapor is one of the variables that determine most meteorological phenomena, particularly regarding precipitation. As a consequence, a simple precipitation forecast model was proposed from data monitored at every minute, such as humidity, surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, and dewpoint. With access to a historical database of 1237 storms, the proposed model allows use of the right combination of these variables to make an accurate forecast of the time of storm onset. The results indicate that the proposed methodology was capable of predicting precipitation onset as a function of the atmospheric pressure, humidity, and dewpoint. The synoptic forecast model was implemented as a hydroinformatics tool in the Extreme Precipitation Monitoring Network of the city of Queretaro, Mexico (RedCIAQ). The improved forecasts provided by the proposed methodology are expected to be useful to support disaster warning systems all over Mexico, mainly during hurricanes and flashfloods.


2014 ◽  
Vol 687-691 ◽  
pp. 4922-4925
Author(s):  
Liang Liu ◽  
Chun Ling Li

The briefly review and the development of the financial risk early warning theory is first discussed in this study and the domestic and foreign research is analyzed as a brief summary. Secondly, the concept of financial risks, financial crisis and the financial early warning is defined. Financial fragility as a starting point is used to establish the rationality model of the financial risk early warning system. The early warning indicators is selected on the basis of the 12 indicators of macro-financial risks, 15 net financial indicators is selected to represent the financial markets according to the characteristics of China's financial markets. In the empirical part, the previous empirical analysis method is chosen to build the financial risk early warning signal system. In order to display China's financial risk profile, the proper model for the calculation is made on the basis of empirical analysis. Thus, in order to minimize the local financial risk, the early warning system should be established by the local government, together with some other necessary measures.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 112
Author(s):  
Veronika Hutabarat ◽  
Enie Novieastari ◽  
Satinah Satinah

Salah satu faktor dalam meningkatkan penerapan keselamatan pasien adalah ketersediaan dan efektifitas prasarana dalam rumah sakit. Early warning system (EWS) merupakan prasarana dalam mendeteksi perubahan dini  kondisi pasien. Penatalaksanaan EWS masih kurang efektif karena parameter dan nilai rentang scorenya belum sesuai dengan kondisi pasien. Tujuan penulisan untuk mengidentifikasi efektifitas EWS dalam penerapan keselamatan pasien. Metode penulisan action research melalui proses diagnosa, planning action, intervensi, evaluasi dan  refleksi. Responden dalam penelitian ini adalah  perawat yang bertugas di area respirasi dan pasien dengan kasus kompleks respirasi di Rumah Sakit Pusat Rujukan Pernapasan Persahabatan Jakarta. Analisis masalah dilakukan dengan menggunakan diagram fishbone. Masalah yang muncul belum optimalnya implementasi early warning system dalam penerapan keselamatan pasien. Hasilnya 100% perawat mengatakan REWS membantu mendeteksi kondisi pasien, 97,4 % perawat mengatakan lebih efektif dan 92,3 % perawat mengatakan lebih efesien mendeteksi perubahan kondisi pasien. Modifikasi EWS menjadi REWS lebih efektif dan efesien dilakukan karena disesuaikan dengan jenis dan kekhususan Rumah Sakit dan berdampak terhadap kualitas asuhan keperawatan dalam menerapkan keselamatan pasien. Rekomendasi perlu dilakukan monitoring evaluasi terhadap implementasi t.erhadap implementasi REWS dan pengembangan aplikasi berbasis tehnologi


PEDIATRICS ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 137 (Supplement 3) ◽  
pp. 256A-256A
Author(s):  
Catherine Ross ◽  
Iliana Harrysson ◽  
Lynda Knight ◽  
Veena Goel ◽  
Sarah Poole ◽  
...  

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