scholarly journals Probabilistic analysis of COVID-19 patients' individual length of stay in Swiss intensive care units

Author(s):  
Alexander Henzi ◽  
Gian-Reto Kleger ◽  
Matthias P. Hilty ◽  
Pedro D. Wendel Garcia ◽  
Johanna F. Ziegel

Rationale: The COVID-19 pandemic induces considerable strain on intensive care unit resources. Objectives: We aim to provide early predictions of individual patients' intensive care unit length of stay, which might improve resource allocation and patient care during the on-going pandemic. Methods: We developed a new semiparametric distributional index model depending on covariates which are available within 24h after intensive care unit admission. The model was trained on a large cohort of acute respiratory distress syndrome patients out of the Minimal Dataset of the Swiss Society of Intensive Care Medicine. Then, we predict individual length of stay of patients in the RISC-19-ICU registry. Measurements: The RISC-19-ICU Investigators for Switzerland collected data of 557 critically ill patients with COVID-19. Main Results: The model gives probabilistically and marginally calibrated predictions which are more informative than the empirical length of stay distribution of the training data. However, marginal calibration was worse after approximately 20 days in the whole cohort and in different subgroups. Long staying COVID-19 patients have shorter length of stay than regular acute respiratory distress syndrome patients. We found differences in LoS with respect to age categories and gender but not in regions of Switzerland with different stress of intensive care unit resources. Conclusion: A new probabilistic model permits calibrated and informative probabilistic prediction of LoS of individual patients with COVID-19. Long staying patients could be discovered early. The model may be the basis to simulate stochastic models for bed occupation in intensive care units under different casemix scenarios.

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. e0247265
Author(s):  
Alexander Henzi ◽  
Gian-Reto Kleger ◽  
Matthias P. Hilty ◽  
Pedro D. Wendel Garcia ◽  
Johanna F. Ziegel ◽  
...  

Rationale The COVID-19 pandemic induces considerable strain on intensive care unit resources. Objectives We aim to provide early predictions of individual patients’ intensive care unit length of stay, which might improve resource allocation and patient care during the on-going pandemic. Methods We developed a new semiparametric distributional index model depending on covariates which are available within 24h after intensive care unit admission. The model was trained on a large cohort of acute respiratory distress syndrome patients out of the Minimal Dataset of the Swiss Society of Intensive Care Medicine. Then, we predict individual length of stay of patients in the RISC-19-ICU registry. Measurements The RISC-19-ICU Investigators for Switzerland collected data of 557 critically ill patients with COVID-19. Main results The model gives probabilistically and marginally calibrated predictions which are more informative than the empirical length of stay distribution of the training data. However, marginal calibration was worse after approximately 20 days in the whole cohort and in different subgroups. Long staying COVID-19 patients have shorter length of stay than regular acute respiratory distress syndrome patients. We found differences in LoS with respect to age categories and gender but not in regions of Switzerland with different stress of intensive care unit resources. Conclusion A new probabilistic model permits calibrated and informative probabilistic prediction of LoS of individual patients with COVID-19. Long staying patients could be discovered early. The model may be the basis to simulate stochastic models for bed occupation in intensive care units under different casemix scenarios.


2020 ◽  
pp. e1-e9
Author(s):  
Filippo Binda ◽  
Federica Marelli ◽  
Alessandro Galazzi ◽  
Riccardo Pascuzzo ◽  
Ileana Adamini ◽  
...  

Background At the height of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Italy had the highest number of deaths in Europe; most occurred in the Lombardy region. Up to 4% of patients with COVID-19 required admission to an intensive care unit because they developed a critical illness (eg, acute respiratory distress syndrome). Numerous patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome who had been admitted to the intensive care unit required rescue therapy like prone positioning. Objectives To describe the respiratory management of and the extensive use of prone positioning in patients with COVID-19 at the intensive care unit hub in Lombardy, Italy. Methods A total of 89 patients (67% male; median age, 59 years [range, 23-80 years]) with confirmed COVID-19 who were admitted between February 23 and March 31, 2020, were enrolled in this quality improvement project. Results Endotracheal intubation was required in 86 patients (97%). Prone positioning was used as rescue therapy in 43 (48%) patients. Significantly more younger patients (age ≤ 59 years) were discharged alive (43 of 48 [90%]) than were older patients (age ≥ 60 years; 26 of 41 [63%]; P < .005). Among the 43 patients treated with prone ventilation, 15 (35% [95% CI, 21%-51%]) died in the intensive care unit, of which 10 (67%; P < .001) were older patients. Conclusions Prone positioning is one strategy available for treating acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with COVID-19. During this pandemic, prone positioning can be used extensively as rescue therapy, per a specific protocol, in intensive care units.


2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lúcia Taborda ◽  
Filipa Barros ◽  
Vitor Fonseca ◽  
Manuel Irimia ◽  
Ramiro Carvalho ◽  
...  

<strong>Introduction:</strong> Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome has a significant incidence and mortality at Intensive Care Units. Therefore, more studies are necessary in order to develop new effective therapeutic strategies. The authors have proposed themselves to characterize Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome patients admitted to an Intensive Care Unit for 2 years.<br /><strong>Material and Methods:</strong> This was an observational retrospective study of the patients filling the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome criteria from the American-European Consensus Conference on ARDS, being excluded those non invasively ventilated. Demographic data, Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome etiology, comorbidities, Gravity Indices, PaO2/FiO2, ventilator modalities and programmation, pulmonary compliance, days of invasive mechanical ventilation, corticosteroids use, rescue therapies, complications, days at<br />Intensive Care Unit and obits were searched for and were submitted to statistic description and analysis.<br /><strong>Results:</strong> A 40 patients sample was obtained, with a median age of 72.5 years (interquartile range = 22) and a female:male ratio of ≈1:1.86. Fifty five percent of the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome cases had pulmonary etiology. The mean minimal PaO2/FiO2 was 88mmHg (CI 95%: 78.5–97.6). The mean maximal applied PEEP was 12.4 cmH2O (Standard Deviation 4.12) and the mean maximal used tidal volume was 8.2 mL/ Kg ideal body weight (CI 95%: 7.7–8.6). The median invasive mechanical ventilation days was 10. Forty seven and one half percent of the patients had been administered corticosteroids and 52.5% had been submitted to recruitment maneuvers. The most frequent complication was Ventilator Associated Pneumonia (20%). The median Intensive Care Unit stay was 10.7 days (interquartile range 10.85). The fatality rate was 60%. The probability of the favorable outcome ‘non-death in Intensive Care Unit’ was 4.4x superior for patients who were administered corticosteroids and 11x superior for patients &lt; 65 years old.<br /><strong>Discussion and Conclusions:</strong> Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome is associated with long hospitalization and significant mortality. New prospective studies will be necessary to endorse the potential benefit of steroid therapy and to identify the subgroups of patients that warrant its use.


1998 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 1252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung Hyug Moon ◽  
Sang Hoon Song ◽  
Ho Seuk Jung ◽  
Dong Jin Yeun ◽  
Su Tack Uh ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
pp. 088506662094100
Author(s):  
Aziez Ahmed ◽  
Douglas Shapiro ◽  
Jennifer Su ◽  
Lara P. Nelson

A 17-year-old with severe hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) presented to the emergency department with symptoms of cough, shortness of breath, chest pain, and tactile fevers. She was initially admitted to the cardiac floor, and later transferred to the cardiothoracic intensive care unit on day 5 of illness with deterioration over the next week from BiLevel positive airway pressure to endotracheal intubation. The patient met criteria for severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Standard ARDS lung-protective strategies were refined in consideration of complications caused by her HCM. Such complications included dynamic cardiac outflow obstruction, myocardial ischemia with tachycardia, elevated pulmonary vascular resistance from diastolic dysfunction, and narrow fluid balance window to reduce pulmonary edema while maintaining adequate left ventricular preload. The patient remained refractory despite broad-spectrum antibiotics requiring multiple vasoactive medications, aggressive ventilator management, and inhaled nitric oxide. Social history revealed “vaping” cannabis with butane hash oil prior to symptom onset. Corticosteroids were initiated 2 weeks after initial presentation (day 9 of mechanical ventilation) with rapid recovery and resolution of illness. Acute respiratory distress syndrome is an aggressive disease in the intensive care unit. E-cigarette or vaping product use–associated lung injury is increasingly recognized as a cause of ARDS in adolescents and adults. A complete social history is essential and must be obtained early in all such patients presenting with symptoms of acute respiratory distress and revisited throughout the hospital stay if no other reason for the ARDS is discovered. Disease progression may be subacute with a long interval between onset of symptoms and peak symptoms. The risk of barotrauma is high despite lung-protective ventilation strategies. Management is supportive with resolution over days to weeks. However, other clinical factors may considerably complicate management in cases of underlying comorbidities.


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