AbstractReversible plasticity in phenotypic traits allows organisms to cope with environmental variation within lifetimes, but costs of plasticity may limit just how well the phenotype matches the environmental optimum. An additional adaptive advantage of plasticity might be to reduce fitness variance, or bet-hedging to maximize geometric (rather than simply arithmetic) mean fitness. Here we model the evolution of reaction norm slopes, with increasing costs as the slope or degree of plasticity increases. We find that greater investment in plasticity (i.e. steeper reaction norm slopes) is favoured in scenarios promoting bet-hedging as a response to multiplicative fitness accumulation (i.e. coarser environmental grains and fewer time steps prior to reproduction), because plasticity lowers fitness variance across environmental conditions. In contrast, in scenarios with finer environmental grain and many time steps prior to reproduction, bet-hedging plays less of a role and individual-level optimization favours evolution of shallower reaction norm slopes. We discuss contrasting predictions from this partitioning of the different adaptive causes of plasticity into short-term individual benefits versus long-term genotypic (bet-hedging) benefits under different costs of plasticity scenarios, thereby enhancing our understanding of the evolution of optimum levels of plasticity in examples from thermal physiology to advances in avian lay dates.Impact summaryPhenotypic plasticity is a key mechanism by which organisms cope with environmental change. Plasticity relies on the existence of some reliable environmental cue that allows organisms to infer current or future conditions, and adjust their traits in response to better match the environment. In contrast, when environmental fluctuations are unpredictable, bet-hedging favours lineages that persist by lowering their fitness variance, either among or within individuals. Plasticity and bet-hedging are therefore often considered to be alternative modes of adaptation to environmental change. However, we here make the point that plasticity also has the capacity to change an organism’s variance in fitness across different environmental conditions, and could thus itself be part of – and not an alternative to – a bet-hedging strategy. We show that bet-hedging at the genotype level affects the optimal degree of plasticity that individuals use to track environmental fluctuations, because despite a reduction in expected fitness at the individual level, costly investment in the ability to be plastic also lowers variance in fitness. We also discuss alternative predictions that arise from scenarios with different types of costs of plasticity. Evolutionary bet-hedging and phenotypic plasticity are both topics experiencing a renewed surge of interest as researchers seek to better integrate different adaptations to ongoing rapid environmental change in a range of areas of literature within ecology and evolution, including behavioural ecology, evolutionary physiology and life-history theory. We believe that demonstrating an important novel link between these two mechanisms is of interest to research in many different fields, and opens new avenues for understanding organismal adaptation to environmental change.
Diapause is not selected as a bet-hedging strategy in insects: a meta-analysis of reaction norm shapes
