scholarly journals Inflation, its volatility and the inflation-growth tradeoff in India

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 350-361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raghbendra Jha ◽  
Varsha S. Kulkarni
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Recent Analysis ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Inflation Volatility ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Inflation Variability

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to amend the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model to include inflation volatility. It provides results on the determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility for ordinary least squares and autoregressive distributed lags (1,1) models and for change in inflation volatility and change in expected inflation volatility using error correction mechanism (ECM) models. Output gap affects change in expected inflation volatility alone (in the ECM model) and not in the other models. Major determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility are identified. To the best of the authors knowledge this is the first paper to augment the NKPC to include inflation volatility. Design/methodology/approach – Recent analysis has indicated the importance of inflation volatility for the monetary transmission mechanism in India (Kapur and Behera, 2012). In the analysis of such monetary policy mechanisms the NKPC has proved to be a useful tool. Thus Patra and Ray (2010) for India and Brissimis and Magginas (2008) for the USA find considerable support for the standard NKPC. The purpose of this paper is to synthesize and integrate these two models by extending the standard NKPC framework to include inflation volatility and test its significance for the case of India. Findings – In the case of inflation volatility output gap, lagged output gap and lagged inflation volatility are all insignificant. The level of inflation has a negative significant impact whereas the level of expected inflation has a positive and significant impact. In the case of expected inflation volatility lagged output gap has a negative and significant impact, the price level has a positive and significant impact whereas expected price has a negative and weakly significant impact. ECM reveals change in inflation variability falls significantly with lagged inflation volatility and lagged inflation and less significantly with change in expected inflation. It rises with lagged expected inflation although the coefficient is only weakly significant. Lagged output gap and change in output gap are insignificant. Originality/value – This paper makes two original contributions. First, it extends the New Keynesian framework to include inflation volatility. Second, it estimates this model for India. To the best of the authors knowledge this is the first paper to make these contributions.

scholarly journals Inflation and Marginal Costs in Open Economies: The New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doğaç Acaroğlu ◽  
Kenan Terzioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Wage Determination ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Fuzzy Linear Regression ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Marginal Costs ◽  
Expected Inflation

The inclusion of the inflation rate in wage determination affects the behavior of economic actors and also positions the expected inflation as one of the main factors in determining inflation. Changes in currency parities in developing countries, which make their production dependent on imports, affect costs and prices. Moreover, changes in labor market structures resulting from free capital flows affect employment and the inflation phenomenon. This paper analyzes the current inflation, expected inflation, and output gap relations with the fuzzy linear regression method in the context of the Turkish economy, which has inflation and effective external dependency. Based on the results obtained using marginal cost instead of the output gap, policy recommendations are provided. The scope of this paper comprises the New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips curve that includes external factors. The relationship between inflation and relevant variables is statistically significant and positive, proving the fuzzy linear regression results as promising. To obtain economic stability and policy precautions, we must examine whether the use of tight monetary policies for coping with inflation leads to unemployment and whether expansionist monetary policies lead to inflation.

Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the UK: evidence from the inflation-indexed bonds market

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hardik A. Marfatia
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Indexed Bonds ◽  
Unobserved Component ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Component Approach ◽  
Unobserved Component Model ◽  
The Uk

Abstract This paper utilizes the information in the inflation-indexed bonds market to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the UK using an unobserved component approach. The main advantage of this approach comes from using the Kalman filter to explicitly estimate the unobserved expected inflation from the observed break-even inflation rates – the yield difference between the inflation-indexed bonds and the nominal bonds. Our results show that the expected inflation estimated from the unobserved component model plays a significant role in explaining the inflation dynamics in the UK. The evidence also suggests that the estimated inflation expectations are better able to capture the evolution of actual inflation process as compared to the break-even inflation rate as a proxy for expected inflation.

Phillips curve and long-run inflation under commitment

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-35
Author(s):  
Dario Pontiggia
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Monetary Authority ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rule Of Thumb ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Forward Looking

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to study the optimal long-run rate of inflation in the presence of a hybrid Phillips curve, which nests a purely backward-looking Phillips curve and the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) as special limiting cases.Design/methodology/approachThis paper derives the long-run rate of inflation in a basic New Keynesian (NK) model, characterized by sticky prices and rule-of-thumb behavior by price setters. The monetary authority possesses commitment and its objective function stems from an approximation to the utility of the representative household.FindingsCommitment solution for the monetary authority leads to steady-state outcomes in which inflation, albeit small, is positive. Rising from zero under the purely forward-looking NKPC, the optimal long-run rate of inflation reaches its maximum under the purely backward-looking Phillips curve. In this case, inflation bias arises, while, under the hybrid Phillips curve, positive long-run inflation is associated with an output gain.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper serves as a clarification against the misperception that log-linearized models take as given the steady-state inflation rate rather than being capable of determining it. Analysis is sensitive to the basic NK setting, with the assumed rule-of-thumb behavior by price setters and price staggering.Originality/valueThe results are the first to quantify the optimal long-run rate of inflation in a fully microfounded model that nests different Phillips curves.

An investigation of government employees’ support for public-private partnerships

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 467-486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Razilya Shakirova
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Organizational Factors ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Public Private Partnerships ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Government Employees ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors that may influence support of public-private partnerships (PPPs) by government employees potentially involved in designing and implementing cross-sectoral collaborations. Design/methodology/approach Based on an original survey of government employees in the USA, this study explores the impact of individual, organizational and environmental factors on their support for PPPs by employing ordinary least squares regression. Findings Among the individual factors, involvement in PPPs and concerns for efficiency have been identified as factors having positive impact on government employees’ support for PPPs. Male government employees seem to be less supportive of PPPs than female government employees. Environmental factors such as public opinion and appointed agency heads positively influence government employees’ views of PPPs. No evidence for the significant impact of organizational factors on government employee perceptions of PPPs was found. Research limitations/implications Factors influencing government employees’ attitudes may also have an effect on employees’ behaviors when involved in PPPs. Further studies may clarify how attitudes are translated into behaviors and how they influence the performance of PPPs. Investigations into government employees’ views of PPPs before and after their actual involvement in partnerships may allow for identifying changes in employees’ support for PPPs and their possible causes. Originality/value This study investigates the impacts of individual, organizational and environmental factors on government employees’ support for partnerships with the private sector that remain under-researched in the literature.

Inflation volatility, monetary policy signaling and clarity of the central bank communication

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 266-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Nicolay ◽  
Ana Jordânia de Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Emerging Economy ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Inflation Volatility ◽  
Central Bank Communication

PurposeStudies about the determinants of the clarity of central bank communication are still scarce. To the authors’ knowledge, there are no studies regarding emerging economies. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature in the following aspects: to analyze the determinants of the clarity of the central bank communication in an inflation targeting emerging economy; observe the influence of inflation volatility over the clarity; and observe the effect of the monetary policy signaling over the clarity.Design/methodology/approachThe work uses readability indexes to measure the clarity of central bank communication. The empirical analysis uses ordinary least squares and the Generalized Method of Moments with one- and two-step estimations.FindingsThe findings suggest the inflation volatility reduces the clarity of central bank communication. Moreover, the monetary policy signaling also affects the clarity, but the effect depends on the direction of the signal.Practical implicationsThis paper observes the determinants of the clarity considering an emerging economy environment. The clarity of central bank communications is an important tool to access transparency. Hence, the analysis of what determines the clarity of central bank communication is a debate about the level of transparency accessed by the central bank.Originality/valueThere are no studies about the determinants of the clarity of central bank communication in emerging economies. Moreover, the novelty are the effects of inflation volatility and monetary policy signaling over the clarity.

Examining the relationships between face concerns and dissent

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen M. Croucher ◽  
Stephanie Kelly ◽  
Hui Chen ◽  
Doug Ashwell
Keyword(s):  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Conflict Behavior ◽  
Self Presentation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Organizational Assimilation ◽  
Working Adults ◽  
Confirmatory Factor ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the relationships between face concerns, articulated (upward) dissent and organizational assimilation. In this study, articulated dissent was conceptualized as a type of dissent. Design/methodology/approach A questionnaire was distributed to 370 working adults in the USA via Qualtrics. The questionnaire measured five face concerns, namely, self, other and mutual-face, articulated dissent and organizational assimilation. Before hypothesis testing, each measure was subjected to a confirmatory factor analysis to ensure that the hypothesized factor structure held. Pearson correlation and ordinary least squares estimation were used to test the hypotheses. Findings Conceptualizing dissent as a type of conflict, the findings of the current study are as follows: self-face and assimilation are positively correlated, other-face and assimilation are positively correlated, mutual-face and assimilation are positively correlated, assimilation and articulated dissent are positively correlated and organizational assimilation mediated the relationship between mutual-face and articulated dissent. Research limitations/implications Theoretically, the self-presentation process (face) is more critical as a person becomes part of an organization; it is through assimilating into an organization that members become familiar with the norms of an organization and more comfortable dissenting to their superiors (articulated dissent); and the more the authors integrate with the work colleagues the more the authors engage in mutual face-saving. Practical implications The results of this study demonstrate that self-presentation is critical as a person becomes part of an organization, particularly when it comes to managing conflict. Originality/value This is the first study to link facework with organizational dissent. The results add to the understanding of how face affects whether we choose to express this kind of conflict behavior.

scholarly journals Quest for a Valid Phillips Curve in the Long Run: An Empirical Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 191
Author(s):  
Mohammed Saiful Islam ◽  
Riduanul Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Present Rate ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between inflation rate (percentage change in consumer price index) and unemployment rate (number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the labor force) by using modern econometric approach to find a “Phillips Curve”. Using US data of both monthly and yearly frequency, the paper    finds the existence of a long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment. A linear form of the Phillips curve is estimated for the USA using ordinary least squares estimation (OLS). The co integration test shows the long run relation between the variables. This contradicts the theory that in long run the Phillips curve should be vertical. Some of the findings can be summarized as follows: (a) the Phillips Curve fits the data well; (b) inflation of previous year influences the present rate of inflation and (c) both monthly data and yearly data support the existence of Phillips curve in the long run

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in India: A New Keynesian Phillips Curve Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhavesh Salunkhe ◽  
Anuradha Patnaik
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Moderate Degree ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Price Inflation

The present study estimates various specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) models for India over 1996Q2 to 2017Q2 using Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation, separately. The empirical results suggest that the data support all the specifications of the Phillips curve models based on both the CPI and WPI inflations. However, the backward looking and hybrid models provide robust results for both the inflation indices. While the forward-looking behaviour dominates the CPI inflation trajectory, the backward-looking behaviour greatly influences the trajectory of WPI inflation. Also, a small-to-moderate degree of persistence is evident in both the CPI and WPI inflation. The output gap, which mainly represents the demand side pressures, turns up the major force determining both the CPI and WPI inflations. Besides the output gap, real effective exchange rate (reer), international crude oil price inflation, global non-fuel commodity price inflation and rainfall have a modest impact on the CPI and WPI inflations. JEL Classification: E12, E52, C36, C14

The inflation-hedging characteristics of Malaysian residential property

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chyi Lin Lee
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Market ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Hedging Effectiveness ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Inflation Hedging

Purpose – This study aims to extend the current literature by examining the inflation-hedging effectiveness of Malaysian residential property in the short run and long run. Malaysia is an emerging market and has some unique characteristics. Therefore, a dedicated study in this market is critical. Design/methodology/approach – The analysis of this study involves two stages. The first stage is to estimate the inflation-hedging ability of Malaysian residential property in the short run. The Fama and Schwert model was employed. Thereafter, the long-run inflation-hedging effectiveness was assessed by using a dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model. Findings – The Fama and Schwert tests reveal that Malaysian residential property does provide some satisfactory hedge against the expected inflation component over the short run. However, variations are evident among different types of residential property. The DOLS results provide strong evidence to support that housing is an effective hedge against the expected inflation in the long run, whereas no comparable evidence is found for the unexpected inflation component. Practical implications – The findings enable more informed and practical investment decision-making regarding the role of housing in inflation risk management. Originality/value – This paper is the first study to offer empirical evidence of the inflation-hedging attributes of Malaysian residential property. Moreover, the inflation-hedging effectiveness of different types of residential property is also compared for the first time.

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