scholarly journals Quest for a Valid Phillips Curve in the Long Run: An Empirical Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 191
Author(s):  
Mohammed Saiful Islam ◽  
Riduanul Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Present Rate ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between inflation rate (percentage change in consumer price index) and unemployment rate (number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the labor force) by using modern econometric approach to find a “Phillips Curve”. Using US data of both monthly and yearly frequency, the paper    finds the existence of a long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment. A linear form of the Phillips curve is estimated for the USA using ordinary least squares estimation (OLS). The co integration test shows the long run relation between the variables. This contradicts the theory that in long run the Phillips curve should be vertical. Some of the findings can be summarized as follows: (a) the Phillips Curve fits the data well; (b) inflation of previous year influences the present rate of inflation and (c) both monthly data and yearly data support the existence of Phillips curve in the long run

Investigating the interlinkages between infrastructure development, poverty and rural–urban income inequality

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 466-484 ◽  
Author(s):  
Varun Chotia ◽  
N.V.M. Rao
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Urban Income ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between infrastructure development, rural–urban income inequality and poverty for BRICS economies. Design/methodology/approach Pedroni’s panel co-integration test and panel dynamic ordinary least squares (PDOLS) have been used to carry out the analysis. Findings The empirical findings confirm a long-run relationship among infrastructure development, poverty and rural–urban inequality. The PDOLS results suggest that both infrastructure development and economic growth lead to poverty reduction in BRICS. However, rural–urban income inequality aggravates poverty in these nations. The paper advocates for adopting policies aimed at strengthening infrastructure and achieving economic growth to reduce the current levels of poverty prevailing in the BRICS nations. Originality/value Significant limitations exist in the literature in terms of not clearly defining the nature of relationship and interlinkages between infrastructure development, poverty and inequality, with regard to the BRICS nations. The available studies mainly focus on the relationship between infrastructure and growth, with the universal agreement being that these two are positively related. However, it is still not right to assume that economic growth attributable to infrastructure development will, therefore, subsequently lead to a reduction in inequality. This forms the basis for this study, that is, to critically examine the relationship between infrastructure development, inequality and poverty for BRICS nations.

scholarly journals Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market: Case Study from Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 102
Author(s):  
Yeen Lai, Khong ◽  
Kin Leong, Tang ◽  
Tee Peck Ling
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Jones Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

<p><em>This study investigate the relationship between macroeconomic variables and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI, the samples are divided into 2 groups such as foreign macroeconomic variables and local macroeconomic variables, foreign macroeconomic variables consist of Gold Bullion LBM price and Dow Jones Index, meanwhile local macroeconomic variables consist of Consumer Price Index, Base Lending Rate, Exchange Rate. This study employs data from Jan 2000 to Dec 2013 which contains a monthly data set of 168 observations. There are 3 methodologies used in this study to investigate the relationship, the first test is Unit Root test which used to test the stationary of each variable, the results indicate that all the variables are stationary in first difference, this is important to use stationary variables because if the variables are not stationary, it might lead to spurious regression. The second methodology is Johansen &amp; Juselius Co-integration test to investigate the long run relationship among these variables, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic variables and local macroeconomic variables have long run relationship with KLCI and significant. Next, this study will investigate the short run relationship between macroeconomic variables and KLCI, the results indicate that Gold, BLR and CPI can granger cause KLCI and significant at 1%, 5% significance level respectively.</em></p>

scholarly journals COINTEGRATING RELATION BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND GOLD PRICE

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 263-269
Author(s):  
Ranjusha ◽  
Devasia ◽  
Nandakumar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Relationship

The very purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between gold price and Rupee – Dollar exchange rate in India. The study utilises the annual data of exchange Rate (ER) and Gold Price (GP) from 1970 to 2015 to determine the relationship. Different econometric tools like Unit root test, Johansen co integration test, Vector error correction model, Granger causality test are used for detecting the long run relation, if any between the mentioned variables. The result shows that there exists a long run cointegrating relation between the variables. That is we can stabilise the Gold Price movement by controlling the exchange rate fluctuations. Likewise it also shows that Exchange rate doesn’t Granger cause to Gold price and vice versa. It means that the time series data of one vasriable cannot be used to predict another.

scholarly journals Analisis Indeks Harga Konsumen di Indonesia Melalui Pendekatan Kointegrasi

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-118
Author(s):  
Muhamad Muin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the rupiah exchange rate (RER) and the money supply (M1) on the outgrowth of the consumer price index (CPI) in Indonesia. The data used in this study are monthly data series from January 2005 to January 2019. The results of this empirical study shows that there is a relationship between RER and M1 on CPI in the long term and there is a correction in the short term balance (ECM) which is influenced by M1. All of these variables are significant at α = 5% and partly significant at α = 1%.

scholarly journals Inflation and Unemployment Trade-off: Is Phillips Curve True for African Developing Countries? Evidence from Sudan

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Omer Allagabo Omer Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Wage Inflation ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between wage inflation and unemployment (Phillips Curve) is controversial in economic thought, and the controversy is centered around whether there is always a trade-off or not. If this relationship is negative it is called The short-run Fillips Curve. However, in the long run, this relationship may probable not exist. The matter of how inflation and unemployment influence economic growth, is debatably among macroeconomic policymakers. This study examines the behavior of the Phillips Curve in Sudan and its effect on economic growth.

scholarly journals Analysis of Capital Flight in Developing Countries: A Study on Turkey between 1980 and 2010

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Özer ◽  
Aslı Cansın Doker ◽  
Adem Türkmen
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run

The aim of this study is to determine whether there is a relationship between Capital flight and some macroeconomic variables by using anual data between 1980 and 2010 in Turkey. Capital flight measured by World Bank (1985) method, was used as dependent variable and external debt, foreign direct investment, uncertainty, real GDP growth, exchange rates, trade balance and consumer price index were used as independent variables. Ordinary Least squares estimation method, Johansen-Jeselius cointegration test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition results produced by VEC model were used in the study. After those econometrics and economics analysis, this paper put forward that there is a long run relationship between some macroeconomic variables and capital flight.The results show external debt, foreign direct investment inflows, and foreign reserves to be the major effector of capital flight.

scholarly journals Phillips Curve: The Greek Case

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Panagiotis Liargovas ◽  
Marios Psychalis
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Economic Adjustment ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Past ◽  
Greek Economy ◽  
Classical Economic ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Relationship

One of the most important problems facing Greece is the long-term and high-level unemployment rate. The Economic Adjustment Programmes (EAPs) focused on the supply side of the economy, aiming at the adjustment of prices and wages, draw on the classical economic model, as it is widely accepted that internal devaluation policies keep inflation low. This article attempts to examine whether the Keynesian theory and the Phillips Curve, which shows the relationship between unemployment and inflation, apply in the case of the Greek economy. We use descriptive statistics, ordinary least squares (OLS) and VAR Analysis to examine the relationship between the variables. According to the results, there is a negative correlation between unemployment and inflation in Greece, thus confirming the Phillips Curve hypothesis. Finally, results show that unemployment is less dependent on inflation compared with the past, and there are numerous other decisive factors affecting unemployment.

scholarly journals The human capital–economic growth nexus in SSA countries: what can strengthen the relationship?

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (9) ◽  
pp. 1143-1159
Author(s):  
Roseline Tapuwa Karambakuwa ◽  
Ronney Ncwadi ◽  
Andrew Phiri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Ssa Countries

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the impact of human capital on economic growth for a selected sample of nine SSA countries between 1980 and 2014 using a panel econometric approach.Design/methodology/approachThe authors estimate a log-linearized endogenous using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and the dynamic ordinary least squares (POLS) applied to our panel data time series.FindingsThe empirical analysis shows an insignificant effect of human capital on economic growth for our selected sample. These findings remain unchanged even after adding interactive terms to human capital, which are representatives of government spending as well as foreign direct investment. Nevertheless, the authors establish a positive and significant effect of the interactive term between urbanization and human capital on economic growth.Practical implicationsThe results emphasize the need for African policymakers to develop urbanized, “smart”, technologically driven cities within the SSA region as a platform toward strengthening the impact of human capital-economic growth relationship.Originality/valueThis study becomes the first in the literature to validate the human capital–urbanization–growth relationship for African countries.

Investigation of Socioeconomic Determinants on Child Death in South Asian Countries: A Panel Cointegration Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 003022282091502
Author(s):  
Shazia Kousar ◽  
Aiza Shabbir ◽  
Rukia Shafqat
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Socioeconomic Factors ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

This article is aimed to examine the relationship between socioeconomic factors and child mortality in South Asia because the relationship between child mortality and socioeconomic factors cannot be overlooked for better progress. Panel data were obtained from (World Development Indicators) and (Human Development Index) for the period 1990–2017. The data were quantitative. Levin, Lin, and Chu and I’m, Pesaran, and Shin test were used to check the stationarity of data. A cointegration test was applied to check the long-run association. Granger causality test was used to determine the direction of the relationship. Fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares techniques were used to examine the long-run and short-run impact of socioeconomic determinants on child mortality. The findings from this study showed the significant impact of education, unemployment, and health expenditure, access to improved water and sanitation facilities, and income inequality on child mortality. Overall results showed that there is a negative association between education and child mortality, access to improved water and access to sanitation facilities and child mortality, and health expenditure and child mortality, but there is a positive association between unemployment and income inequality with child mortality. The rate of child mortality is still very alarming in South Asian countries.

scholarly journals The nexus between stock market index and apartment and villa prices

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 450-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Öhman ◽  
Darush Yazdanfar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the Granger causal link between the stock market index and housing prices in terms of apartment and villa prices. Design/methodology/approach Monthly data from September 2005 to October 2013 on apartment prices, villa prices, the stock market index, mortgage rates and the consumer price index were used. Statistical methods were applied to explore the long-run co-integration and Granger causal link between the stock market index and apartment and villa prices in Sweden. Findings The results indicate that the stock market index and housing prices are co-integrated and that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. According to the Granger causality tests, bidirectional relationships exist between the stock market index and apartment and villa prices, respectively, supporting the wealth and credit-price effects. Moreover, variations in apartment and villa prices are primarily caused by endogenous shocks. Originality/value To the authors’ best knowledge, this study represents a first analysis of the causal nexus between the stock market and the housing market in terms of apartment and villa prices in the Swedish context using a vector error-correction model to analyze monthly data.

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