Regime Dependent Determinants of Credit Default Swap Spread

2012 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-64
Author(s):  
Hong-Bae Kim ◽  
Yeonjeong Lee ◽  
Sang Hoon Kang ◽  
Seong-Min Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Markov Switching Model ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Interest Level ◽  
Efficient Hedging ◽  
Credit Default Swap Spread

This study investigates the influence of theoretical determinants on the Korea sovereign CDS spreads from January 2007 to September 2009 based on structural credit risk model. For the analysis of determinants on the sovereign CDS spread, this study adopts interest swap rate as reference interest rate, and decomposes yields curve into two components, ie, interest level and slope. Considering multivariate regression in level and difference variables, Stock returns and Interest rates have a significant effect on the CDS spreads among the theoretical determinants of structural credit risk models. CDS spreads may behave quite differently during volatile regime compared with their behavior in tranquil regime. We therefore apply Markov switching model to investigate the possibility that the influence of theoretical determinants of CDS spread has a regime dependent behavior. In all regimes Korean sovereign CDS spreads are highly sensitive to stock market returns, whereas in tranquil regime interest rates also have influence on CDS spreads. We conclude that for the efficient hedging of CDS exposure trader should adjust equity hedge ratio to the relevant regime.

scholarly journals Splitting Credit Risk into Systemic, Sectorial and Idiosyncratic Components

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Alfonso Novales ◽  
Alvaro Chamizo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
The North ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Highly Correlated

We provide a methodology to estimate a global credit risk factor from credit default swap (CDS) spreads that can be very useful for risk management. The global risk factor (GRF) reproduces quite well the different episodes that have affected the credit market over the sample period. It is highly correlated with standard credit indices, but it contains much higher explanatory power for fluctuations in CDS spreads across sectors than the credit indices themselves. The additional information content over iTraxx seems to be related to some financial interest rates. We first use the estimated GRF to analyze the extent to which the eleven sectors we consider are systemic. After that, we use it to split the credit risk of individual firms into systemic, sectorial, and idiosyncratic components, and we perform some analyses to test that the estimated idiosyncratic components are actually firm-specific. The systemic and sectorial components explain around 65% of credit risk in the European industrial and financial sectors and 50% in the North American sectors, while 35% and 50% of risk, respectively, is of an idiosyncratic nature. Thus, there is a significant margin for portfolio diversification. We also show that our decomposition allows us to identify those firms whose credit would be harder to hedge. We end up analyzing the relationship between the estimated components of risk and some synthetic risk factors, in order to learn about the different nature of the credit risk components.

scholarly journals The Sensitivity of Central Bank Interest Rate on Commercial Banks’ Stock Market Returns in Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. p72
Author(s):  
Micah Odhiambo Nyamita ◽  
Martine Ogola Dima
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Panel Data Regression

Commercial banks occupy a significant position in the transmission of monetary policy through the financial market. Furthermore, commercial banks have assets and liabilities which are interest rate sensitive, and their stock returns are believed to be particularly responsive to changes in the central bank base lending rates. Therefore, this study investigated the sensitivity of central bank interest rate changes on stock returns of listed commercial banks in Kenya for nine year period, from 2006 to 2014. The study used a hybrid of cross sectional and longitudinal quantitative surveys method, applying GMM panel data regression model on the secondary data from the 11 listed commercial banks in Kenya. The study found out that there is a significant strong positive sensitivity of average annual changes in central bank interest rates (CBR) on the stock returns of the listed commercial banks in Kenya, from 2006 to 2014, measured using CAPM. Hence, listed commercial banks’ managers in Kenya should monitor, keenly, the changes in the central bank interest rates and make investor related decisions accordingly.

scholarly journals Analyzing the Dynamics Between Macroeconomic Variables and the Stock Indexes of Emerging Markets, Using Non-linear Methods

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 193
Author(s):  
Huthaifa Alqaralleh ◽  
Ahmad Al-Majali ◽  
Abeer Alsarayrh
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression ◽  
Stock Indexes

This study empirically considers five emerging markets from January 1995 to July 2019 to see whether nonlinearity helps to investigate responses to macroeconomic shocks in stock prices. With Vector Smooth Transition Regression, it uses real effective exchange rates, interbank interest rates, industrial production indices, and stock market returns. It confirms that nonlinearity in emerging markets may stem from their susceptibility to high volatility arising from political and geopolitical turnovers or global financial liquidity. It highlights significant differences in the asymmetric patterns. Some emerging markets respond asymmetrically to macro-variables, while others suggest that stock returns adjust from high or low towards the middle ground. Policy-makers seeking acceptable, accessible, sustainable and replicable actions that help stakeholders to invest may get help from our study to understand the properties of emerging markets central to each country’s economic activity. 

scholarly journals Structural Credit Risk Model with Jumps Based on Uncertainty Theory

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Huang ◽  
Yufu Ning
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Uncertainty Theory ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Uncertain Differential Equation ◽  
Underlying Asset ◽  
Stock Value ◽  
Proposed Model

Abstract Traditional finance studies of credit risk structured models are based on the assumption that the price of the underlying asset obeys a stochastic differential equation. However, according to behavioral finance, the price of the underlying asset is not entirely stochastic, and the credibility of financial investors also plays a very important role in asset prices. In this paper we introduce uncertainty theory to describe these credibility of investors and propose a new credit risk structured model with jumps based on the assumption that the underlying asset is described by an uncertain differential equation with jumps. The company default belief degree formula, zero coupon bond value and stock value formula are formulated. Company bond credit spread and credit default swap (CDS) pricing are studied as applications of the proposed model in uncertain markets.

The Association between Accounting Earnings, Dividends, Stock Prices and Stock Returns: Value Relevance of Accounting Standards in the Tunisian Stock Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Bouteska ◽  
Boutheina Regaieg
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Accounting Earnings ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The Impact

This present study aims to examine the relationship between accounting earnings, dividends, stock prices and stock returns for companies listed at the Tunisian stock exchange. Using panel data obtained from the annual reports and financial statements of 57 Tunisian companies over the period 2005-2015, we show the existence of an earning-dividend-return significant positive relation by applying four models developed from Easton and Harris (1991), Frino and Tibbits (1992) and Kothari and Zimmerman (1995).. The empirical results indicate a significant value relevance of accounting earnings and dividends reported by Tunisian companies under the standards generally accepted in Tunisia. Particularly, it appears from our main findings in regressions the relative explanatory power of above variables on stock market returns which clarifies the important proportions of variations of stock returns in Tunisia. The findings from the study also reveal that shareholders pay a special attention to the impact of dividend and dividend yield on stock returns. Moreover, investors should consider informative earnings numbers as investment criteria as well as many other factors for example interest rates and industry performance affecting stock returns when it comes to make investment decisions. Based on these results and due to the importance of accounting earnings in investment decisions we recommend that there is need for investors to carefully use financial advisory information that financial analysts provide to them in order to determine what the correct and comparable earnings per share (EPS) or dividend per share (DPS) of each company.

scholarly journals Nilai Transaksi E-Money di Indonesia dengan Menggunakan Metode Markov Switching Model

Owner ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 644-652
Author(s):  
Maratus Zahro ◽  
Rika Rahayu
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Markov Switching Model ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Switching Model ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Government

The purpose of the research is to examine and analyze the interest rates, inflation rates, stock returns, and holiday conditions on the values of e-money transactions based on two conditions, before and after the issuance of Bank Indonesia regulations. The research data used in this study is the monthly statistical data of the Bank Indonesia payment system for the period 2008-2018. While, the research was the quantitative using the Markov Regime Switching Model and hypothesis testing using time series regression. The research results showed that there was a significant effect between the inflation rate and the value of e-money transactions. In addition, there was an insignificant effect on interest rates, stock returns, and holiday conditions on the value of e-money transactions. This research contributes to the development of economic research by predicting the value of e-money transactions and predicting the value e-money transactions and predicting the turning point of e-money transactions value based on two conditions, before and after the issuance of Bank Indonesia regulations and can be used as input to the government regarding the regulations that issued by Bank of Indonesia, regulations regarding increased the value of e-money transactions.

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