scholarly journals Analyzing the Dynamics Between Macroeconomic Variables and the Stock Indexes of Emerging Markets, Using Non-linear Methods

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 193
Author(s):  
Huthaifa Alqaralleh ◽  
Ahmad Al-Majali ◽  
Abeer Alsarayrh
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression ◽  
Stock Indexes

This study empirically considers five emerging markets from January 1995 to July 2019 to see whether nonlinearity helps to investigate responses to macroeconomic shocks in stock prices. With Vector Smooth Transition Regression, it uses real effective exchange rates, interbank interest rates, industrial production indices, and stock market returns. It confirms that nonlinearity in emerging markets may stem from their susceptibility to high volatility arising from political and geopolitical turnovers or global financial liquidity. It highlights significant differences in the asymmetric patterns. Some emerging markets respond asymmetrically to macro-variables, while others suggest that stock returns adjust from high or low towards the middle ground. Policy-makers seeking acceptable, accessible, sustainable and replicable actions that help stakeholders to invest may get help from our study to understand the properties of emerging markets central to each country’s economic activity. 

The Association between Accounting Earnings, Dividends, Stock Prices and Stock Returns: Value Relevance of Accounting Standards in the Tunisian Stock Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Bouteska ◽  
Boutheina Regaieg
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Accounting Earnings ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The Impact

This present study aims to examine the relationship between accounting earnings, dividends, stock prices and stock returns for companies listed at the Tunisian stock exchange. Using panel data obtained from the annual reports and financial statements of 57 Tunisian companies over the period 2005-2015, we show the existence of an earning-dividend-return significant positive relation by applying four models developed from Easton and Harris (1991), Frino and Tibbits (1992) and Kothari and Zimmerman (1995).. The empirical results indicate a significant value relevance of accounting earnings and dividends reported by Tunisian companies under the standards generally accepted in Tunisia. Particularly, it appears from our main findings in regressions the relative explanatory power of above variables on stock market returns which clarifies the important proportions of variations of stock returns in Tunisia. The findings from the study also reveal that shareholders pay a special attention to the impact of dividend and dividend yield on stock returns. Moreover, investors should consider informative earnings numbers as investment criteria as well as many other factors for example interest rates and industry performance affecting stock returns when it comes to make investment decisions. Based on these results and due to the importance of accounting earnings in investment decisions we recommend that there is need for investors to carefully use financial advisory information that financial analysts provide to them in order to determine what the correct and comparable earnings per share (EPS) or dividend per share (DPS) of each company.

scholarly journals Smooth Transition Regression models: Theory and Applications in JMulti

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. e18
Author(s):  
Rui Menezes ◽  
Nuno Ferreira ◽  
Adriano Mendonça Souza ◽  
Francisca Mendonça Souza
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Nonlinear Models ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Nonlinear Behaviour ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Economic Relationships ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Treasury Bond ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression

This tutorial aims to analyze nonlinear models of Smooth Transition Regression with JMulTi and contribute to the understanding of STR specification, from the estimation until the evaluation cycle of these models. It provides pedagogical explanations, combining theoretical concepts and empirical results coherently. Especially in economic relationships, where an asymmetric behaviour with distinct effects is often found on contractions and expansions. As economic series generally present asymmetric/nonlinear behaviour, Smooth Transition Regression (STR) models provide a flexible empirical strategy that allows capturing the impacts of possible types of asymmetry in the data, Souza (2016).An overview of theory and applications in software is described. These nonlinear models describe in-sample movements of the stock returns series better than the corresponding linear model. The data used in this study consist of daily prices index from January 02, 1995 to March 29, 2013, a total of 4761 observations, from Germany (DAX30). The data was collected from the DataStream database considering 5 days a week. The data (price index) is converted to base 100 and the yields are then calculated based on the first differences in the log price series. 10-year interest rates treasury bond regarding the same markets identified has also been collected for the same period.

scholarly journals Systematic illiquidity, characteristic illiquidity, and stock returns: Timeseries analysis

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 72-80
Author(s):  
Soltane et al. ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Timeseries Analysis ◽  
The Relationship

The objective of this research is to investigate the relationship between illiquidity and stock prices on the Tunisian stock exchange. While previous researches tended to focus on one form of illiquidity to examine this relationship, our study unifies three forms of illiquidity at the same time. Indeed, we simultaneously consider illiquidity as systematic risk, as a characteristic of the market, and as a characteristic of the stock. The aggregate illiquidity of the market is the average of individual stock illiquidity. The illiquidity risk is the sensitivity of the stock price to illiquidity shocks. Shocks of market illiquidity are estimated by the innovations in the expected market illiquidity. Results show that investors on the Tunisian stock exchange do not require higher returns when they expect a rise of market illiquidity, whereas investors on U.S markets are compensated for higher expected market illiquidity. In addition, shocks of market illiquidity provoke a fall in stock prices of small caps, while large caps are not sensitive to market illiquidity shocks. This differs slightly from results based on U.S. data where illiquidity shocks reduce all stock prices but most notably those of small caps. Robustness tests validate our findings. Our results are consistent with previous studies which reported that the “zero-return” ratio predicts significantly the return-illiquidity relationship on emerging markets.

Growth and returns across countries

2021 ◽  
pp. 78-87
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Wide Margin ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Long Run Risk

This chapter examines the relation between long-run economic growth and returns across countries. Have countries that have experienced high GDP growth historically also experienced high stock returns? The chapter contains three main messages. First, there is no clear tendency that countries that have grown fast in the past are also countries that have delivered high stock returns in the past. Second, as in the US, stock prices have in many countries followed economic activity in the long run. Third, real interest rates relate to economic growth across countries in the long run.Another conclusion emerging from this chapter is that long-run stock returns exceed long-run rates of economic growth and long-run risk-free rates by a wide margin.

scholarly journals Irrelevance of inflation: The Dow stocks

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 45
Author(s):  
Samih Antoine Azar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Price Indexes ◽  
One To One ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Stock Indexes ◽  
Real Assets

The irrelevance of inflation is a proposition, inherited from corporate finance, which states that inflation is irrelevant for the valuation of nominal and real stock prices. In other terms, Net Present Values (NPVs) and stock returns are independent of the inflation rate.  The issue at stake is both theoretical and empirical, although the first came much before the latter. In the empirical realm, stock returns are found to be statistically negatively related to inflation. However, and theoretically, the classical school predicted that they should be related positively one-to-one. Moreover long run analysis, that came later, found that stock prices are positively related to price indexes. This stems from the fact that stocks are claims upon real assets, and, therefore, should be a hedge against inflation with the same one-to-one relation. This paper differs by subjecting all these hypotheses to the individual stocks included in the Dow Jones Industrial Index, and not to returns calculated from stock indexes, which is the usage. The empirical results in this paper support strongly the irrelevance of inflation.  This is true whatever the price index, whatever the econometric procedure, whatever the industry to which the stock belongs, and whatever the specification of the model.  Hence inflation is neither negatively nor positively related to stock returns, whether nominal or real.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norbert Funke ◽  
Akimi Matsuda
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Good News ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Using daily data for the January 1997 to June 2002 period, we analyze similarities and differences in the impact of macroeconomic news on stock returns in the United States and Germany. We consider 27 different types of news for the United States and 12 different types of news for Germany. For the United States, we present evidence for asymmetric reactions of stock prices to news. In a boom (recession) period, bad (good) news on GDP growth and unemployment or lower (higher) than expected interest rates may be good news for stock prices. In the period under consideration there is little evidence for asymmetric effects in Germany. However, in the case of Germany, international news appears at least as important as domestic news. There is no evidence that US stock prices are influenced by German news. The analysis of bi-hourly data for Germany confirms these results.

scholarly journals Regional heterogeneity among non-operating earnings quality, stock returns, and firm value in biotech industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (No. 1) ◽  
pp. 10-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe-Ming Lee
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Earnings Quality ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Regional Heterogeneity ◽  
Operating Income ◽  
Biotech Industry ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression Models ◽  
Quality Stock

This paper analyses regional heterogeneity under the discretionary measures of non-operating earnings quality and stock returns on firm value in Taiwan’s biotech industry during 2008–2015. An econometric framework based on panel smooth transition regression models is employed in a non-linear panel data model. The results show that biotech firms near the bottom threshold for operating income have low-quality non-operating earnings and those near the upper threshold demonstrate the opposite. Investors who exclusively focus on stock returns are thus likely to miss important information about the quality of earnings.

scholarly journals The Sensitivity of Central Bank Interest Rate on Commercial Banks’ Stock Market Returns in Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. p72
Author(s):  
Micah Odhiambo Nyamita ◽  
Martine Ogola Dima
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Panel Data Regression

Commercial banks occupy a significant position in the transmission of monetary policy through the financial market. Furthermore, commercial banks have assets and liabilities which are interest rate sensitive, and their stock returns are believed to be particularly responsive to changes in the central bank base lending rates. Therefore, this study investigated the sensitivity of central bank interest rate changes on stock returns of listed commercial banks in Kenya for nine year period, from 2006 to 2014. The study used a hybrid of cross sectional and longitudinal quantitative surveys method, applying GMM panel data regression model on the secondary data from the 11 listed commercial banks in Kenya. The study found out that there is a significant strong positive sensitivity of average annual changes in central bank interest rates (CBR) on the stock returns of the listed commercial banks in Kenya, from 2006 to 2014, measured using CAPM. Hence, listed commercial banks’ managers in Kenya should monitor, keenly, the changes in the central bank interest rates and make investor related decisions accordingly.

scholarly journals MACRO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ON STOCK PRICES

2021 ◽  
pp. 13-19
Author(s):  
Toufiq Agung Pratomo Sugito Putra ◽  
Sugiyanto Sugiyanto
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Mathematical Techniques

Macroeconomics is an integral component of economic activity. The goal of this research is to demonstrate the effects of the macro-economic effect on stock returns with a more focused and tailored scope of the financial sector. This research uses a quantitative methodology with mathematical techniques, data used in the period 2001-2018, time series models with Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approaches where the data used are stationary and not co-integrated. The VAR model shows that if there is a parallel interaction between the measured variables, these variables can be considered similarly so that there are no more endogenous and exogenous variables. The findings showed that inflation, exchange rates and interest rates have no significant effect while economic growth had an impact on stock returns in the financial sector on the Indonesian stock exchange in 2001-2018

scholarly journals Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility to Stocks’ Return in Indonesia: The Augmented Markov-Switching Egarch Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-173
Author(s):  
Wasiaturrahma Wasiaturrahma ◽  
Dita Normalaksana Putri ◽  
Shochrul Rohmatul Ajija
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Volatility Regimes ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

The stock price is one indicator that represents the economic performance in a country. Changes in stock prices, including various factors, as an example, is the exchange rate changes as the representation from the foreign exchange market. The fluctuating exchange rate price also influences the volatility of the stock price. Furthermore, volatility has different high and low regime stages that will cause a disparate impact on the outcome of the relationship changes. This study aims to examine the presence of asymmetric volatility and its effects on the volatility of LQ45 stock returns, as well as the changes in exchange rates of Rupiah against USD from 1997 to 2017. Using the Augmented Markov Switching EGARCH  approach,  the  results  of  this  study  indicate  an  asymmetric  behavior  in  the  volatility  of LQ45 stock returns. High volatility regimes are more dependent and more unstable than low volatility regimes, and low volatility regimes dominate the duration compared to the high volatility regime. The good and bad news give different impact on LQ45 stock return volatility and exchange rate changes. Moreover, the unstable economies will respond faster than the stable economies in terms of facing the exchange rate changes.

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