Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of European real estate equity returns

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai-Magnus Schulte
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Time Trends ◽  
Idiosyncratic Risk ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Idiosyncratic Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Portfolio ◽  
The Cross

Purpose – This study is the first to examine the role of idiosyncratic risk in the pricing of European real estate equities. The capital asset pricing model predicts that in equilibrium, investors should hold the market portfolio. As a result, investors should only be rewarded for carrying undiversifiable systematic risk and not for diversifiable idiosyncratic risk. The study is adding to the growing body of countering studies by first examining time trends of idiosyncratic risk and subsequently the pricing of idiosyncratic risk in European real estate equities. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The study analyses 293 real estate equities from 16 European capital markets over the 1991-2011 period. The framework of Fama and MacBeth is employed. Regressions of the cross-section of expected equity excess returns on idiosyncratic risk and other firm characteristics such as beta, size, book-to-market equity (BE/ME), momentum, liquidity and co-skewness are performed. Due to recent evidence on the conditional pricing of European real estate equities, the pricing is also investigated using the conditional framework of Pettengill et al. Either realised or expected idiosyncratic volatility forecasted using a set of exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models are employed. Findings – The initial analysis of time trends in idiosyncratic risk reveals that while the early 1990s are characterised by both high total and idiosyncratic volatility, a strong downward trend emerged in 1992 which was only interrupted by the burst of the dotcom bubble and the 9/11 attacks along with the global financial and economic crisis. The largest part of total volatility is idiosyncratic and therefore firm-specific in nature. Simple cross-correlations indicate that high beta, small size, high BE/ME, low momentum, low liquidity and high co-skewness equities have higher idiosyncratic risk. While size and BE/ME are priced unconditionally from 1991 to 2011, both measures of idiosyncratic risk fail to achieve significance at reasonable levels. However, once conditioned on the general equity market or real estate equity market, a strong positive relationship between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns emerges in up-markets, while the opposite relationship exists in down-markets. The relationship is robust to firm-specific factors and a series of robustness checks. Research limitations/implications – The results show that ignoring the conditional relationship between idiosyncratic risk and returns might result in the false realisation that idiosyncratic risk does not matter in the pricing of risky (real estate) assets. Originality/value – This study is the first to examine the role of idiosyncratic risk in the pricing of European real estate equities. The study reveals differences in the pricing of European real estate equities and US REITs. The study highlights that ignoring the conditional relationship between idiosyncratic risk and returns might result in the false realisation that idiosyncratic risk does not matter in the pricing of risky assets.

Are herding transmissions in the gulf cooperation council stock markets regional or international?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dina Gabbori ◽  
Basel Awartani ◽  
Aktham I. Maghyereh ◽  
Nader Virk
Keyword(s):  
Cross Section ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Return ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Cross ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe authors aim to assess whether herding in GCC stock markets is more responsive to global dynamics than its response to regional developments. To do so, they use the largest equity market in the region which is Saudi Arabia as the benchmark, and then they examine if herding crosses from this large regional market to the rest of equities in the neighboring markets during various time periods. To compare the importance of global influences on herding, the authors investigate and compare the impact of the information flow from the US equity market on the herding of equities in the GCC markets.Design/methodology/approachTo investigate herding in GCC markets the authors use the relationship between the squared market return and the cross-section absolute deviation that does not covary with market styles and/or fundamentals. In order to do that we follow Galariotis et al. (2015) and account for four styles: market-oriented, small-cap, value and momentum. As these factors have been shown to be associated with the economic fundamentals, filtering the covariance of deviation with these factors is expected to remove the style and the fundamental herding influence from the value of the dispersion.FindingsThe results show significant herding behavior that persists across various independent periods. This evidence stands even when the authors control for the well- known factor structures in stock returns. Importantly, the authors find that the few herding crossovers that occurred during the sample period are more likely to originate from the Saudi market rather than from the US. Therefore, the authors conclude that behavioral inefficiencies in the GCC equity markets are likely to be regional and that the sentiment-based trading in the US has essentially a minimal role to play.Practical implicationsThe empirical findings are useful for policymakers who aim at preventing market manipulation in order to preserve the integrity of financial markets. Policymakers in the GCC should disclose more information to aid investors so they do not rely on other investors' trades. The portfolio managers should be aware that the correlation of GCC equities can be higher in the short term due to common market herding in these countries. As the US market does not play an important role in triggering behavioral irrationalities in these markets, investing in GCC equities is a good hedge in a US portfolio. Finally, the results have also important implications for active funds that aim to exploit short-term trending in markets in order to enhance performance.Originality/valueThe authors’ contribution in this paper is to investigate herding in GCC markets by using the relationship between the squared market return and the cross-section absolute deviation that does not covary with market styles and/or fundamentals. Another contribution of our paper is to investigate any cross herding from the Saudi market to the rest of the markets in the area. The previous literature on GCC equity market herding is silent on this issue and it is typically restricted to the level of the single market.

Whose Disagreement Matters? Household Belief Dispersion and Stock Trading Volume

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Li ◽  
Geng Li
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Stock Trading ◽  
Trading Activities ◽  
The Cross

Abstract Theoretical models have long recognized the role of investor disagreements in the marketplace, but little evidence is documented regarding how belief dispersion affects trading activities in the broad equity market. Using over three decades of data from a survey of US households, we introduced a novel measure of household macroeconomic belief dispersion and document its positive relationship with market-wide stock trading volume, even after controlling for an array of professional analysts’ belief dispersion. Results are more pronounced for the belief dispersion among households who are more likely to own stocks. Furthermore, we show that the household belief dispersion is priced in the cross-section of stock returns, whereas that among professional analysts is not.

Linkages between cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Hiang Liow
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Cross

Purpose This research aims to investigate whether and to what extent the co-movements of cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles are linked across G7 from February 1990 to June 2014. Design/methodology/approach The empirical approaches include correlation analysis on Hodrick–Prescott (HP) cycles, HP cycle return spillovers effects using Diebold and Yilmaz’s (2012) spillover index methodology, as well as Croux et al.’s (2001) dynamic correlation and cohesion methodology. Findings There are fairly strong cycle-return spillover effects between the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles. The interactions among the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles in G7 are less positively pronounced or exhibit counter-cyclical behavior at the traditional business cycle (medium-term) frequency band when “pure” stock market cycles are considered. Research limitations/implications The research is subject to the usual limitations concerning empirical research. Practical implications This study finds that real estate is an important factor in influencing the degree and behavior of the relationship between cross-country business cycles and cross-country stock market cycles in G7. It provides important empirical insights for portfolio investors to understand and forecast the differential benefits and pitfalls of portfolio diversification in the long-, medium- and short-cycle horizons, as well as for research studying the linkages between the real economy and financial sectors. Originality/value In adding to the existing body of knowledge concerning economic globalization and financial market interdependence, this study evaluates the linkages between business cycles, stock market cycles and public real estate market cycles cross G7 and adds to the academic real estate literature. Because public real estate market is a subset of stock market, our approach is to use an original stock market index, as well as a “pure” stock market index (with the influence of real estate market removed) to offer additional empirical insights from two key complementary perspectives.

Potential for optimising organisational structures in the technical due diligence for real estate transactions in Germany

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannis Steffen Oetken ◽  
Christian Hofstadler ◽  
Felix Meckmann
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Management ◽  
Due Diligence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Theoretical Approaches ◽  
Transaction Process ◽  
Organisational Structures

PurposeThe individual levels involved in real estate management are thoroughly discussed in the literature. This paper provides a structured meta-analysis of the different theoretical approaches in German-speaking countries. It also investigates the integration of transaction management and technical due diligence into the concepts of organisation theory. In this process, the interfaces are analysed and optimised models are developed for transferring the technical due diligence findings to the operational level.Design/methodology/approachInterviews with transaction management experts were conducted based on a narrative literature review. These interviews shed light on how the components of transaction management and due diligence are integrated into the transaction process, with a particular focus on technical due diligence. They also provide insights into how the related results are taken into account in relation to the transaction, and how they are transferred into the operational phase.FindingsIt becomes apparent that the role of transaction management is not clearly defined and delimited in the structural model of the real estate industry. Technical due diligence findings are usually transferred to the operation of the property via several, manual interfaces with corresponding losses of knowledge. The related models derived and developed for the purpose of operational optimisation define the role of transaction management against a technical background and identify the interfaces to be considered.Practical implicationsThe significance of transaction management for subsequent operations is discussed and elaborated on. More specifically, transferring safety-relevant, high-priority findings from the technical due diligence exercise plays a crucial role for the modelling stage. On the implementation level, the derived models serve as a basis for customising the internal organisational structure.Originality/valueIn Germany, there has hardly been any research into the involvement of technical experts in the real estate transaction process to date. This paper provides initial approaches to optimising organisational structures and sustainably integrating technical due diligence findings into real estate operations.

Cross-listing of real estate investment trusts (REITs)

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 509-527
Author(s):  
Kim Hin David Ho ◽  
Kwame Addae-Dapaah ◽  
Fang Rui Lina Peck
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Foreign Market ◽  
Real Estate Investment Trusts ◽  
Domestic Market ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Real Estate Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Listing ◽  
Market Beta ◽  
The Cross

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the common stock price reaction and the changes to the risk exposure of the cross-listing for real estate investment trusts (REITs). Design/methodology/approach The paper adopts the event study methodology to assess the abnormal returns (ARs). Pre- and post-cross-listing changes in the risk exposure for the domestic and foreign markets are examined, via a modified two-factor international asset pricing model. A comparison is made for two broad cross-listings, namely, the depositary receipts and the dual ordinary listings, to examine the impacts from institutional differences. Findings Cross-listed REITs generally experience positive and significant ARs throughout the event window, implying significant superior returns associated with the cross-listing for REITs. On systematic risks, REITs exhibit significant decline in their domestic market β coefficients after the cross-listing. However, the foreign market β coefficients do not yield conclusive evidence when compared across the sample. Research limitations/implications Results are consistent with prudential asset allocation for potential diversification gains from the cross-listing, as the reduction from the domestic market beta is more significant than changes in the foreign market beta. Practical implications The results and findings should incentivise REIT managers to explore viable cross-listing. Social implications Such cross-listing for REITs should enhance risk diversification. Originality/value This is a pioneer study on cross-listing of REITs. It provides a basis for investment decision making, and could provoke further research and discussion.

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