Linkages between cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Hiang Liow
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Cross

Purpose This research aims to investigate whether and to what extent the co-movements of cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles are linked across G7 from February 1990 to June 2014. Design/methodology/approach The empirical approaches include correlation analysis on Hodrick–Prescott (HP) cycles, HP cycle return spillovers effects using Diebold and Yilmaz’s (2012) spillover index methodology, as well as Croux et al.’s (2001) dynamic correlation and cohesion methodology. Findings There are fairly strong cycle-return spillover effects between the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles. The interactions among the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles in G7 are less positively pronounced or exhibit counter-cyclical behavior at the traditional business cycle (medium-term) frequency band when “pure” stock market cycles are considered. Research limitations/implications The research is subject to the usual limitations concerning empirical research. Practical implications This study finds that real estate is an important factor in influencing the degree and behavior of the relationship between cross-country business cycles and cross-country stock market cycles in G7. It provides important empirical insights for portfolio investors to understand and forecast the differential benefits and pitfalls of portfolio diversification in the long-, medium- and short-cycle horizons, as well as for research studying the linkages between the real economy and financial sectors. Originality/value In adding to the existing body of knowledge concerning economic globalization and financial market interdependence, this study evaluates the linkages between business cycles, stock market cycles and public real estate market cycles cross G7 and adds to the academic real estate literature. Because public real estate market is a subset of stock market, our approach is to use an original stock market index, as well as a “pure” stock market index (with the influence of real estate market removed) to offer additional empirical insights from two key complementary perspectives.

The dynamics of return co-movements and volatility spillover effects in Greater China public property markets and international linkages

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 610-641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Hiang Liow
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Public Property ◽  
Property Markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine weekly dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) and vector autoregressive (VAR)-based volatility spillover effects within the three Greater China (GC) public property markets, as well as across the GC property markets, three Asian emerging markets and two developed markets of the USA and Japan over the period from January 1999 through December 2013. Design/methodology/approach – First, the author employ the DCC methodology proposed by Engle (2002) to examine the time-varying nature in return co-movements among the public property markets. Second, the author appeal to the generalized VAR methodology, variance decomposition and the generalized spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to investigate the volatility spillover effects across the real estate markets. Finally, the spillover framework is able to combine with recent developments in time series econometrics to provide a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic volatility co-movements regionally and globally. The author also examine whether there are volatility spillover regimes, as well as explore the relationship between the volatility spillover cycles and the correlation spillover cycles. Findings – Results indicate moderate return co-movements and volatility spillover effects within and across the GC region. Cross-market volatility spillovers are bidirectional with the highest spillovers occur during the global financial crisis (GFC) period. Comparatively, the Chinese public property market's volatility is more exogenous and less influenced by other markets. The volatility spillover effects are subject to regime switching with two structural breaks detected for the five sub-groups of markets examined. There is evidence of significant dependence between the volatility spillover cycles across stock and public real estate, due to the presence of unobserved common shocks. Research limitations/implications – Because international investors incorporate into their portfolio allocation not only the long-term price relationship but also the short-term market volatility interaction and return correlation structure, the results of this study can shed more light on the extent to which investors can benefit from regional and international diversification in the long run and short-term within and across the GC securitized property sector, with Asian emerging market and global developed markets of Japan and USA. Although it is beyond the scope of this paper, it would be interesting to examine how the two co-movement measures (volatility spillovers and correlation spillovers) can be combined in optimal covariance forecasting in global investing that includes stock and public real estate markets. Originality/value – This is one of very few papers that comprehensively analyze the dynamic return correlations and conditional volatility spillover effects among the three GC public property markets, as well as with their selected emerging and developed partners over the last decade and during the GFC period, which is the main contribution of the study. The specific contribution is to characterize and measure cross-public real estate market volatility transmission in asset pricing through estimates of several conditional “volatility spillover” indices. In this case, a volatility spillover index is defined as share of total return variability in one public real estate market attributable to volatility surprises in another public real estate market.

scholarly journals The nexus between stock market index and apartment and villa prices

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 450-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Öhman ◽  
Darush Yazdanfar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the Granger causal link between the stock market index and housing prices in terms of apartment and villa prices. Design/methodology/approach Monthly data from September 2005 to October 2013 on apartment prices, villa prices, the stock market index, mortgage rates and the consumer price index were used. Statistical methods were applied to explore the long-run co-integration and Granger causal link between the stock market index and apartment and villa prices in Sweden. Findings The results indicate that the stock market index and housing prices are co-integrated and that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between them. According to the Granger causality tests, bidirectional relationships exist between the stock market index and apartment and villa prices, respectively, supporting the wealth and credit-price effects. Moreover, variations in apartment and villa prices are primarily caused by endogenous shocks. Originality/value To the authors’ best knowledge, this study represents a first analysis of the causal nexus between the stock market and the housing market in terms of apartment and villa prices in the Swedish context using a vector error-correction model to analyze monthly data.

scholarly journals Convergence in the UK direct real estate market

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 382-396
Author(s):  
Stephen Lee
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Market Segments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Uk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the issue of convergence in the monthly returns, rental growth and yields for ten market segments in the UK direct real estate market, using monthly data over the period from January 1987 to December 2014. Design/methodology/approach The methodology used to determine convergence is principal component analysis as it provides an assessment of the extent to which the variance of the market segments can be represented by a single common factor, explaining their long-run behaviour, and the degree of independence between the market segments. Findings The results suggest that there is strong evidence of convergence over the entire sample period in relation to monthly returns and yields but less evidence of convergence in rental growth, which confirms the findings in previous studies in international markets. Practical implications The evidence also suggests that convergence has increased over the sample period and that convergence is period specific and was particularly strong during and after the period of the Global Financial Crisis, which implies that the UK direct real estate market is largely integrated and as a consequence the extent of diversification potential in the market is still severely limited. Social implications The convergence in returns has crucial implications for investors as it leaves investors exposed to the same structural shocks and so magnifies the importance of volatility spillover effects, limits their ability to create well-diversified portfolios and make it more difficult for fund managers to outperform the market. Originality/value This is the first paper to examine the convergence in the UK direct real estate market.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Volatility in the Nepalese Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-59
Author(s):  
Dinesh Gajurel
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
International Equity Markets ◽  
Asymmetric Volatility ◽  
Market Index ◽  
International Equity ◽  
Indian Stock Market

This paper investigates the asymmetric volatility behavior of the Nepalese stock market including spillover effects from the US and Indian equity markets. I modeled asymmetric volatility within a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskdasticy framework using comprehensive data for the Nepal stock market index. The results reveal a very different asymmetry compared to the results in other international equity markets: positive shocks increase volatility by more than negative shocks. The results further suggest that uninformed investors play a significant role in the Nepalese stock market. The spillover effect from the Indian stock market to the Nepalese stock market is negative. Overall, I conclude that a “fear of missing out” (FOMO) of noise traders as well as the deployment of pump and dump schemes are inherent features of the Nepalese stock market. The findings are very useful to policy makers and investors alike.

scholarly journals Cash management and performance of index mutual funds

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 549-565
Author(s):  
Diego Víctor de Mingo-López ◽  
Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez ◽  
Amparo Soler-Domínguez
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Fund Performance ◽  
Cash Management ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Index Funds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Index ◽  
And Performance

PurposeThis study aims to assess the relationship between cash management and fund performance in index fund portfolios.Design/methodology/approachUsing a sample of 104 index mutual funds that track the Standard and Poor 500 stock market index from January 1999 to December 2016, the authors employ quintile portfolios and different regression models to assess the differences in risk-adjusted monthly returns experienced by index funds managing different cash levels in their portfolios. To ensure the robustness of the results, different sub-periods and market states are considered in the analyses as well as other exogenous factors and fund characteristics affecting the level of portfolio cash holdings and index fund performance.FindingsResults show that index funds holding higher levels of cash and cash equivalents performed significantly worse than their low-cash counterparts. This evidence remains even after considering different sub-periods and bullish and bearish market conditions and controlling for fund expenses and other variables that could drive this cash-performance relationship.Originality/valueThis study expands the extant literature analyzing cash management in the mutual fund industry. More specifically, the analyses focus on index fund portfolios that replicate a specific benchmark, given that their performance differences should not be related to the market evolution but to the factors derived from the fund management and other exogenous issues. These findings are of interest to managers and investors willing to improve their risk-adjusted returns while investing as diversified as a stock market index.

scholarly journals The impact of GST implementation on the Malaysian stock market index volatility

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-33
Author(s):  
Razali Haron ◽  
Salami Mansurat Ayojimi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Empirical Estimation ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Noticeable Increase ◽  
Market Index ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) implementation on Malaysian stock market index. Design/methodology/approach This study used daily closing prices of the Malaysian stock index and futures markets for the period ranging from June 2009 to November 2016. Empirical estimation is based on the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (1, 1) model for pre- and post-announcement of the GST. Findings Result shows that volatility of Malaysian stock market index increases in the post-announcement than in the pre-announcement of the GST which indicates that educative programs employed by the government before the GST announcement did not yield meaningful result. The volatility of the Malaysian stock market index is persistent during the GST announcement and highly persistent after the implementation. Noticeable increase in post-announcement is in support with the expectation of the market about GST policy in Malaysia. Practical implications The finding of this study is consistent with expectation of the market that GST policy will increase the price of the goods and services and might reduce standard of living. This is supported by a noticeable increase in the volatility of the Malaysian stock market index in the post-announcement of GST which is empirically shown during the announcement and after the implementation of GST. Although the GST announcement could be classified as a scheduled announcement, unwillingness to accept the policy prevails in the market as shown by the increase in the market volatility. Originality/value Past studies on Malaysian stock market index volatility focus on the impact of Asian and global financial crisis whereas this study examines the impact of the GST announcement and implementation on the volatility of the Malaysian stock market index.

NONLINEARITIES AND GARCH INADEQUACY FOR MODELING STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM LATIN AMERICA

2010 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 713-724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio A. Bonilla ◽  
Rafael Romero-Meza ◽  
Carlos Maquieira
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Data Generating Process

In this paper, we analyze the adequacy of using GARCH as the data-generating process to model conditional volatility of stock market index rates-of-return series. Using the Hinich portmanteau bicorrelation test, we find that a GARCH formulation or any of its variants fail to provide an adequate characterization for the underlying process of the main Latin American stock market indices. Policymakers need to be careful when using autoregressive models for policy analysis and forecast because the inadequacy of GARCH models has strong implications for the pricing of stock index options, portfolio selection, and risk management. In particular, measures of spillover effects and output volatility may not be correct when GARCH-type models are used to evaluate economic policy.

Glocal real estate market: evidence from European Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Radoslaw Wisniewski ◽  
Justyna Brzezicka
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Selection Of Variables ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
Characteristic Features

Purpose This paper aims to analyse globalisation, localisation and glocalisation on the real estate market and define the characteristic features of a glocal real estate market (GREM). The GREM involves real estate properties and real estate products, as well as linking the local and global dimensions of real estate market. Further aims of the study were to provide a methodology for developing the glocal real estate market index (GREMI), and compare selected European markets by analysing their glocalisation potential. Design/methodology/approach A novel method of identifying and assessing the GREM was prepared in the work. The methodology provides tools for calculating the GREMI. This is an index based on a few dozen variables from various thematic scopes, describing the glocalisation potential of a selected market, calibrated to a range <0, 1>. GREMI values were calculated for 12 countries, which accessed European Union (EU) in 2004. The sample covers period from 2004 to 2017. Findings The study shows that the GREMI continues to increase in all countries over time and the results are becoming synchronised. Romania is a country with the highest number of minimum GREMI values in all years (2004–2017). The highest values of the GREMI were determined in Estonia over the period of nine years (2004–2006, 2008 and 2013–2017). Research limitations/implications The prepared index may be applied to analyse different real estate markets, though the necessity to select an identical set of variables for analysis to allow for comparing between markets is a limitation for applying the method. The actual selection of variables is also a study limitation, which was of an opening nature to research in this scope and may be disputable. Originality/value This paper provides the original methodology of the GREMI index for countries joining the EU from 2004 onwards.

Determinants of different types of bank liquidity: evidence from BRICS countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 380-403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Umar ◽  
Gang Sun
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Stock Liquidity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Funding Liquidity ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Different Types

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the determinants of three different types of bank liquidity: funding liquidity, liquidity creation, and stock liquidity in emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach It uses an extensive set of data from all the listed banks of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, collectively known as the BRICS countries, spanning the period 2002-2014. Multiple linear regression has been used to estimate the coefficients of the determinants. Findings In case of emerging markets, bank size is not a determinant of different types of liquidity, except funding liquidity. Besides, the recent financial crisis had an impact on funding liquidity as well as “cat nonfat” measure of liquidity creation but it did not affect “cat fat” measure and stock liquidity. The variation in funding liquidity is also explained by the profitability and the riskiness of the bank. Effective interest rate, national savings rate, and inflation rate are also the determinants of funding liquidity. Bank-specific determinants of liquidity creation include bank leverage and profitability, and macroeconomic determinants include stock market index, effective interest rate, and unemployment rate. The variation in stock liquidity of the bank is explained by profitability and price of stocks, trading volume, volatility of stock returns, and percentage change in real gross domestic product. Neither market capitalization nor stock market index is the determinant of stock liquidity of the banks. Research limitations/implications This study uses the data from publically listed banks only. Practical implications The findings of this study may be used by the policy makers and bank managers in the emerging markets to design better policies and to strengthen the banking system to avoid financial turmoil in future. Originality/value Most of the existing studies focus on bank liquidity in developed countries and studies aiming on emerging countries are rare. The existing studies focus more on funding liquidity and liquidity creation but to the best of the authors’ knowledge, none of the studies analyze the determinants of banks’ stock liquidity. So, this study bridges the above mentioned gaps by focusing on bank liquidity in emerging markets, and exploring the determinants of the stock liquidity of the banks.

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