Does corruption adversely affect economic growth in Tunisia? ARDL approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-54
Author(s):  
Anas Al Qudah ◽  
Azzouz Zouaoui ◽  
Mostafa E. Aboelsoud
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to better understand the phenomenon of corruption in Tunisia in relation to its impact on economic development. The period of study is 1995 to 2014. The auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is adopted to examine the existence of a long-term relationship between the above-mentioned variables and also the direct and indirect consequences of corruption on economic development in Tunisia. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a modern econometric technique to estimating the long-term relationship (e.g. the co-integration) between corruption and economic development; using this technique also allows us to investigate the impact of corruption on economic growth. Findings The empirical results show that corruption has a negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in Tunisia for the period under review. This effect is described as a direct effect of corruption in the long term; specifically, declines are observed in per capita GDP, over the long run, by almost 1 per cent, following a 1 per cent increase in the level of corruption. The results also show that corruption has indirect effects via transmission channels, such as investment in physical capital, which is positively significant in the presence of corruption. The same observation is made at the level of government expenditure during the previous year, while for those of the current year, the coefficient becomes negative but not significant. With respect to human capital, the impact of corruption on education expenditures is insignificant. Originality/value The paper begins with an overview of previous literature in this area. Given the nature of corruption and the differences in the meanings attributed to it, from one country to another and from one culture to another, the paper moves on to study the impact of corruption in Tunisia as a case study for one country with one socio-cultural environment. The authors then propose several methods and possible solutions, which could be implemented to deal with this problem.

The colonial exports pattern, institutions and current economic performance

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tania El Kallab ◽  
Cristina Terra
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
French Colonies ◽  
Colonial Institutions ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper explores the role of colonial heritage on long-term economic development from a resource-curse perspective. The authors investigate the impact of colonial exports on long-term economic development through two channels: (1) a direct impact of the economic dependency on natural resources and (2) an indirect impact via its effect on colonial institutions, which persisted over time and influenced current economic development.Design/methodology/approachTo address this issue, the authors use an original data set on French bilateral trade from 1880 to 1912. The authors use partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) in the empirical analysis, so that the authors are able to construct latent variables (LVs) for variables that are not directly observable, such as the quality of institutions.FindingsThe authors find that exports of primary goods to France had a negative impact on colonial institutions and that for French colonies, this impact was driven by minerals exports. Despite its impact on colonial institutions, exports of French colonies had no significant indirect impact on their current institutions. The authors find no significant direct impact of colonial trade on current development for French colonies. Finally, colonial exports of manufactured products had no significant impact on colonial institutions among French colonies and a positive impact among non-French ones.Research limitations/implicationsResearch implications regarding the findings of this paper are, namely, that the relative poor performance within French colonies today cannot be attributed to the extraction of raw materials a century ago. However, human capital and institutional development, instead of exports, are more relatively important for long-term growth. Some limitations in trying to determine the simultaneous relationship among colonial trade, institutions and economic performance are the relation between colonial trade and the extent of extraction from the colonizer, which is hard to quantify, as well as its precise mechanism.Practical implicationsSince the initial institutions set in those former colonies presented a strong persistence in the long run, their governments should focus now on building sound and inclusive political and economic institutions, as well as on investing in human capital in order to foster long-term growth. Once a comprehensive set of institutional and human resources are put in place, the quality and quantity of exports might create a positive spillover on the short-run growth.Social implicationsOne social implication that can be retrieved from this study is the ever-lasting effect of both human capital investment and introduction of inclusive political and economic institutions on the long-run impact of growth.Originality/valueThe paper uses an original primary data set from archival sources to explore the role of colonial heritage on long-term economic development from a resource-curse perspective. It applies a relatively new model partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM) that allows the construction of LVs for variables that are not directly observable, as well as channeling the impact on growth through both direct and indirect channels. Finally, it allows for the simultaneous multigroup analysis across different colonial groups.

Oil prices, armed conflict and government revenue in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1196-1210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Udoma Johnson Afangideh ◽  
Augustine Ujunwa ◽  
Angela Ifeanyi Ukemenam
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Macroeconomic Fluctuation

Purpose Persistent wave of armed conflicts – militancy and terrorism – and the mono-cultural structure of the Nigerian economy, as well as extensive reliance on revenue from crude oil, highlights how external vulnerabilities, weakening internal structure and insecurity could significantly exacerbate public revenue loss. Understanding the nature, trend and impact of these factors on government revenue is one of the questions that still remain unsolved. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of global oil prices, militancy and terrorism on government revenue in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach The study focusses on the state-failure and frustration-aggression hypotheses to explain the nature and trend of armed conflicts in Nigeria. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used to examine the effect of global oil prices, militancy and terrorism on government revenue. Findings The study reveals that crude oil price, terrorism and militancy have significant negative effect on government revenue in short- and long-run Nigeria. Evidence from the study therefore supports the theory that macroeconomic fluctuation is largely determined by endogenous and exogenous factors in Nigeria. Research limitations/implications In view of this review, future studies should empirically analyse the interactive impact of militancy, terrorism and global oil prices on government expenditure or a combination of government revenue and expenditure. Originality/value The study provides evidence on the role of internal and external factors on macroeconomic fluctuation, and recommended appropriate suite of policies that could mitigate external and internal vulnerabilities, especially during upsurge in armed conflicts.

The composition of productive government expenditure

2008 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Goncalo Monteiro ◽  
Stephen J. Turnovsky
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Productive Government Spending

PurposeRecent research supports the role of productive government spending as an important determinant of economic growth. Previous analyses have focused on the separate effects of public investment in infrastructure and on investment in education. This paper aims to introduce both types of public investment simultaneously, enabling the authors to address the trade‐offs that resource constraints may impose on their choice.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ a two‐sector endogenous growth model, with physical and human capital. Physical capital is produced in the final output sector, using human capital, physical capital, and government spending on infrastructure. Human capital is produced in the education sector using human capital, physical capital, and government spending on public education. The introduction of productive government spending in both sectors yields an important structural difference from the traditional two‐sector growth models in that the relative price of human to physical capital dynamics does not evolve independently of the quantity dynamics.FindingsThe model yields both a long‐run growth‐maximizing and welfare‐maximizing expenditure rate and allocation of expenditure on productive capital. The welfare‐maximizing rate of expenditure is less than the growth‐maximizing rate, with the opposite being the case with regard to their allocation. Moreover, the growth‐maximizing value of the expenditure rate is independent of the composition of government spending, and vice versa. Because of the complexity of the model, the analysis of its dynamics requires the use of numerical simulations the specific shocks analyzed being productivity increases. During the transition, the growth rates of the two forms of capital approach their common equilibrium from opposite directions, this depending upon both the sector in which the shock occurs and the relative sectoral capital intensities.Research limitations/implicationsThese findings confirm that the form in which the government carries out its productive expenditures is important. The authors have retained the simpler, but widely employed, assumption that government expenditure influences private productivity as a flow. But given the importance of public investment suggests that extending this analysis to focus on public capital would be useful.Originality/valueTwo‐sector models of economic growth have proven to be a powerful tool for analyzing a wide range of issues in economic growth. The originality of this paper is to consider the relative impact of government spending on infrastructure and government spending on human capital and the trade‐offs that they entail, both in the long run and over time.

Does female human capital contribute to economic growth in India?: an empirical investigation

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (11) ◽  
pp. 1506-1521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhu Sehrawat ◽  
A.K. Giri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Education And Health ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of female human capital on economic growth in the Indian economy during 1970-2014. Design/methodology/approach The paper employs Ng-Perron unit root test to check the order of integration of the variables. The study also used ARDL-bounds testing approach and the unrestricted error-correction model to investigate co-integration in the long run and short run; Granger’s causality test to investigate the direction of the causality; and variance decomposition test to capture the influence of each variable on economic growth. Findings The study constructed a composite index for both male and female human capitals by taking education and health as a proxy for human capital. The empirical findings reveal that female human capital is significant and positively related to economic growth in both short run and long run, while male human capital is positive but insignificant to the economic growth; same is the case for physical capital, it implies that such investment regarding female human capital needs to be reinforced. Further, there is an evidence of a long-run causal relationship from female human capital, male human capital and physical capital to economic growth variable. The results of variance decomposition show the importance of the female human capital variable is increasing over the time and it exerts the largest influence in change in economic growth. Research limitations/implications The empirical findings suggest that the Indian economy has to pay attention equally on the development of female human capital for short-run as well as long-run growth of the economy. This implies that the policy makers should divert more expenditure for developing support for female education and health. Originality/value To the best of authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to study the relationship between female human capital and economic growth in the context of the Indian economy.

scholarly journals Reflections on neo-Kaleckian growth regimes: a Marxian reproduction perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Zhao ◽  
Jiahe Tian ◽  
Yuchen Duan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Kaleckian Model

PurposeThe neo-Kaleckian model follows the ideas of Marx, Keynes and Kalecki, that investment is a key influencing factor in the dynamics of the capitalist mode of production. Through the discussion of different forms of investment decision function, this paper constructs the analysis framework of wage-led and profit-led economic growth regimes.Design/methodology/approachThe model has become an important theoretical paradigm for current Western heterodox economists regarding the research on the impact of functional income distribution on economic growth, and it has a very large impact on both theoretical and empirical research. Starting from Marx's reproduction theory, this article discusses the theoretical shortcomings of the neo-Kaleckian growth regime model.FindingsThis paper mainly focuses on three aspects: (1) the ideological legacy of “Smith's Dogma”; (2) neglecting the restrictions on income distribution from the organic composition of capital and the surplus value rate; (3) technological progress and the formation of a new long economic wave.Originality/valueThe authors believe that the neo-Kaleckian model unilaterally emphasizes the demand-side factors in the economy and, unconsciously or not, ignores the role of the supply-side, which makes it encounter certain limitations in explaining long-term growth. Even if some empirical conclusions are employed to bridge functional income distribution and technological progress, there is still a lack of a theoretical basis for accurately describing long-term economic changes using this model. In order to better promote high-quality economic development and accelerate the formation of a new pattern of economic development in which the domestic large-scale cycle is the mainstay and the domestic and international double cycles promote each other, the authors need to adopt a policy combination with the supply-side as the main and the demand-side as the supplement, and to work from both sides.

scholarly journals The nexus between financial development and poverty reduction in Egypt

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 40-55
Author(s):  
Vivian Bushra Kheir
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Incentive Structure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the impact of financial development on poverty reduction in Egypt. The paper also investigates whether financial development affects poverty via gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the autoregressive distributed lag approach to estimate two specifications. The first is dependent on poverty by the ratio domestic credit to the private sector (percentage of GDP) and the second is dependent on the poverty by the ratio liquid liabilities to GDP or M3/GDP. The data are annual and cover the period from 1980 to 2015. Findings In long run, the study finds that relationship between economic growth and poverty is bidirectional. Financial development and poverty (household final consumption expenditure per capita) are complementary as bidirectional (in Granger sense). In short run, the study finds the bidirectional causality between financial development (real domestic credit to private sector per capita) and poverty reduction. Practical implications The findings suggest that governments should remove policies that impede the ability of banks to offer loan products or undermine the commercial incentive structure for banks or borrowers. It is crucial to enhance the role of specialized state-owned banks in financial intermediation. Social implications Several attempts have been made to investigate the relationship between financial development and other macroeconomic variables, but few studies have examined the impact of financial development on poverty reduction. Furthermore, the majority of the previous studies are based on Asia and Latin America – affording Egypt very little or no coverage at all.

Foreign inflows and economic growth in Pakistan: some new insights

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 97-113
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tahir ◽  
Ahmad Ali Jan ◽  
Syed Quaid Ali Shah ◽  
Md Badrul Alam ◽  
Muhammad Asim Afridi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Employment Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
External Sources ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the contending role of important external inflows on the economic growth of Pakistan economy. The main purpose behind focusing on Pakistan is that it is receiving significant inflows from different international sources such as International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Asian Development Bank. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted the autoregressive distributed lag cointegration approach for the purpose of exploring the long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. As Pakistan Government had been implementing some major liberalization policies during 1990s, data from 1976 to 2018 is used to estimate the specified models to reflect the impact of the surge of foreign inflows occurring from that time. In addition, error correction model is estimated for examining the short-run relationships. Findings The findings revealed the significant role played by different inflows in accelerating the economic growth. According to results, in the long run, all inflows, for example, Foreign direct investment (FDI), debt, official developdment assistance and remittances, have influenced significantly and positively the economic growth. The two control variables such as inflation and employment level included in the model have also played their expected role in the growth process. In the short run, some of the variables such as remittances, FDI and inflation rate have lost their significance level while for debt, aid and employment level, the signs of their coefficients become reversed. Practical implications Based on the findings, the study suggests the policymakers of Pakistan economy to liberalize the economy and attract more inflows from the external sources to accelerate economic growth. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first comprehensive empirical study on the role of foreign inflows in the process of economic growth in the context of Pakistan economy.

Does the composition of government expenditure matter for Eastern Caribbean economies’ long-run sectoral output growth?

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-14
Author(s):  
Ankie Scott-Joseph ◽  
Treshauna Felecia Turner
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Eastern Caribbean ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Total Government Expenditure

PurposeThis study takes a disaggregated approach to investigate the impacts of long-run GDP on changes in total government expenditure in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) economies. An understanding of the relationship between changes in total government expenditure and GDP (by sector categories) is expected to provide a working tool to understand the growth debt nexus of Caribbean countries. The purpose of the paper is to use an auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM) to examine and analyse short- and long-run dynamics of disaggregated approach to both output and government expenditure in a dynamic model to identify the growth in the Eastern Caribbean Countries.Design/methodology/approachIn an attempt to examine the long-run dynamics, data for the period 1970-2015 were used in an ARDL and ECM framework. The authors examine the long-run GDP impacts of changes in total government expenditure and in the shares of different spending categories for the ECCU countries to establish and analyse short and long-run dynamics.FindingsThe results suggest that total fiscal expenditure and disaggregated expenditure including debt services have both positively and negatively contributed to economic growth in the agriculture, manufacturing and mining sectors. Among others, the study found that high national debt in the region resulted primarily from increases in government expenses and diminishing income sources.Originality/valueThis paper is the first to take a disaggregated approach to investigate the relationship between economic growth and government expenditure in the Eastern Caribbean States. The authors’ empirical results suggest that debt servicing reduces economic growth both in the short and long run. The greatest impact being felt in the mining and manufacturing sectors, namely, 1 per cent increase in debt service will bring about 7.90 and 1.67 per cent decrease in economic growth. These results offer fairly strong support to the view that expenditure share variables can weaken sectoral growth, and hence force the overall growth to decline.

Finance-institution-growth trilogy: time-series insights from South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Clement Olalekan Olaniyi ◽  
Adebayo Adedokun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study examines the moderating effect of institutional quality on the finance-growth nexus in South Africa from 1986 to 2015.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts unit root tests, cointegration test and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model.FindingsThe findings reveal that institutional quality constitutes a drain to the growth benefits of financial development (FD) in South Africa in the short-run while FD and institutional quality converge to enhance growth process of the country in the long-run. Also, the threshold of institutional quality beyond which institution stimulates strong positive impact of finance on growth is estimated to be 6.42 on a 10-point scale.Practical implicationsThis study, therefore, suggests that institutional quality matters in the way FD influences economic growth in South Africa. Hence, stakeholders are encouraged to trace and block lapses and loopholes in the institutional framework guiding financial system in South Africa so as to maximize growth benefits of FD.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the extant studies by introducing a country-specific analysis into the empirical examination of how institutional quality influences the impact of FD on economic growth. Also, this study deviates from other studies by determining the threshold of institutional quality beyond which FD stimulates strong positive effect on economic growth in South Africa

scholarly journals Interdependence between banking earnings, banking security and growth achievement: case study in the ASEAN community

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-264
Author(s):  
Minh Phu Pham
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Banking Development

PurposeThe main purpose of this paper is to examine the existence of interdependence amongst banking earnings, banking security and growth performance across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region.Design/methodology/approachThis paper utilizes a panel autoregressive distributed lag method with the annual data of nine ASEAN members over 1996–2017.FindingsOnly the short-run Granger causal impact of banking profitability on economic expansion is supported, while the long-run Granger causality between all the variables is strongly recognized. Increased banking well-being supports economic development, while higher banking security might have inverse impacts. However, increasing the banking profit without the corresponding better soundness can be detrimental to the economic growth in the short run and much more in the long run. Thus, improving banking profitability and stability simultaneously has positive net effects on the economic development.Research limitations/implicationsThis research is restricted to unavailable data and limited measurements of both banking profitability and stability. Further inclusion of other macro-economic variables, other banking development aspects or even non-banking indicators should also be considered.Practical implicationsNational governments should emphasize a convenient financial environment, which can strongly enhance the positive relationship between banking earnings, banking safeness and output growth. Also, the relevant policies on higher banking well-being and stricter security obligations have to be simultaneously maintained.Originality/valueFew papers have inspected the interrelationship between banking stability, banking profitability and economic growth, particularly in the ASEAN region. This causes the banking literature shortage, as well as insufficient insights for the financial policymakers into their endogenous dynamics. Thus, the study is the first attempt to fulfil the research gap.

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