Risk measurement and optimization model of coal generation contracts for the difference between prospect M-V and normal triangular fuzzy stochastic variables

Kybernetes ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 1323-1339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiwei Li ◽  
Chong Wu ◽  
He Dong ◽  
Huan Wang ◽  
Mei Li
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Fuzzy Random Variable ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Supply Chain System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Measurement Models ◽  
Risk And Benefit ◽  
Fuzzy Random

Purpose Coal and power generation are related upstream and downstream industries. Coal price marketization and electricity price regulation have caused the price of coal to be sensitive to the benefits of generators. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach As a financial tool, contracts for differences can both help balance interests and reduce risks caused by spot price fluctuation. This thesis regards coal demand as a triangular fuzzy stochastic variable while directing a levelling consideration towards risk returns for coal and power enterprises that are involved in coal generation contracts for differences. Risk and benefit measurement models were established between coal suppliers and power generators, and risk and benefit balance optimization models for contract negotiation were constructed. Findings A numerical example showed that the above models can be effectively used to avoid the risks of coal-electricity parties. Originality/value This thesis regards coal demand as a triangular fuzzy random variable while directing a levelling consideration towards the risk return to coal and power enterprises that are involved with coal generation contracts for differences. The features of this thesis are the following: demand information is regarded as a fuzzy random variable instead of a random variable. With historical data, sales experience and increasingly clear macro-economic conditions, coal and power enterprises are able to make a fuzzy decision – to a certain extent – when the transaction approaches. Accurate market information enables the supply chain system to satisfy the clients’ needs better, improve the profit level or avoid severe financial damages; by developing a feasible set of contracts for different parameters, it is possible to estimate whether the price difference enables supply chain coordination, requires changes or gives accounts to all involved parties of the supply chain; and without the assumption that the traditional M-V rule is unfavourable to decision makers, this thesis proposes the prospect M-V rule, which involves decision makers’ projections of future coal generation prices and enables wide applicability of the response method to contracts for differences.

Supply chain practices and organizational performance

2017 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shrikant Gorane ◽  
Ravi Kant
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Customer Satisfaction ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Organizational Performance ◽  
Customer Value ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Manufacturing Organizations

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically test a framework which identifies the relationships between various supply chain practices (SCPs) and organizational performance (operational performance (OP), customer satisfaction, and financial performance) in the context of Indian manufacturing organizations. Design/methodology/approach From the literature, ten SCPs are selected which finally influences the organizational performance. In order to understand the interactions between SCPs and organizational performance, this paper grouped the ten SCPs into four constructs namely: information and communication technology, supply chain (SC) integration, operational responsiveness, and closed loop green practices. Three levels of firm performance are also examined, including OP, customer satisfaction, and financial performance. The paper-based and web-based survey yielded 292 responses from the Indian manufacturing organizations. The data collected were put through rigorous statistical analysis to test for the content, construct, and criterion-related validity, as well as reliability analyses. Further a structural equation model was developed to test the relationships between SCPs and organizational performance. Findings The finding suggests that a successful SCPs implementation not only improves the OP, but also enhances customer satisfaction and financial performance. In addition, higher financial performance is also attributable to better customer value resulting from the achievement of better customer satisfaction. Research limitations/implications SCPs are complex constructs. While this study shows the effect of broadly accepted SCPs on organizational performance, not all possible practices are covered in this study. Again the study can be further extended to sector specific so that the results can be further refined. Practical implications This is one of the few studies which attempts to investigate whether there is any relationship exits between SCPs and organizational performance. The finding will help decision makers in the organization to know the importance of SCPs and how SCPs influence the organizational performance. Second, this study has developed and validated a multi-dimensional construct of SCPs, which can assist decision makers of Indian organizations to evaluate the competence of their current status of SCPs in the organization. Originality/value As per the knowledge of the authors, this is the first kind of study which empirically investigated the relationships between SCPs and organizational performance in the context of Indian manufacturing organizations.

A cost evaluation model for IoT-enabled prefabricated construction supply chain management

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wennan Zhang ◽  
Kai Kang ◽  
Ray Y. Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Construction Cost ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
System Boundary ◽  
Supply Chain System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis paper proposes an evaluation model for prefabricated construction to guide a supply chain with controllable costs. Prefabricated construction is prevalent due to area limitations. Nevertheless, the development is limited by budget control and identifying the factors affecting cost. The degree of close collaboration in the supply chain is closely interconnected with cost performance that includes direct and indirect factors. This paper not only quantizes these factors but also distinguishes the degree of influence of various factors.Design/methodology/approachSystem dynamics is applied to simulate and analyze the construction cost factors through Vensim software. It can also clarify the relationship between cost and other influencing factors. The input data are collected from an Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled system under a Building Information Modeling (BIM) system and Hong Kong government reports.FindingsSimulation results indicate that prefabricated construction cost is mainly influenced by government promotion degree (GPD), working pressure from on-site construction (WPOSC), prefab quality (PQ), load-bearing capacity per vehicle (LBPV) and mold quality (MQ). However, it is more sensitive toward GPD, which indicates that the government should take measures to promote this construction technology. On-site worker management is also essential for the assembly process and indirectly influences the construction cost.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper quantifies indirect influential factors to clarify the specific features for prefabricated construction. The investigated factors are limited.Practical implicationsThe contractor can identify all factors and classify the levels of influence to make decisions under the supply chain system boundary.Social implicationsThe input data are collected from an IoT-enabled system under a BIM system and Hong Kong government reports. Thus, the relationship between construction cost influential factors can be investigated.Originality/valueThis paper quantifies indirect influencing factors and clarifies the specific features in prefabricated construction. The contractor could identify these factors to make decisions and classify the levels of influence under the supply chain system boundary.

scholarly journals On Distribution Characteristics of a Fuzzy Random Variable

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 53-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jalal Chachi
Keyword(s):  
Probability Theory ◽  
Distribution Function ◽  
Cumulative Distribution Function ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Fuzzy Random Variable ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Distribution Characteristics ◽  
Fuzzy Random Variables ◽  
Fuzzy Random

In this paper, rst a new notion of fuzzy random variables is introduced. Then, usingclassical techniques in Probability Theory, some aspects and results associated to a randomvariable (including expectation, variance, covariance, correlation coecient, etc.) will beextended to this new environment. Furthermore, within this framework, we can use thetools of general Probability Theory to dene fuzzy cumulative distribution function of afuzzy random variable.

The Compatibility Assessment between Voltage Sags and Equipment Tolerance Based on Fuzzy-Random Method

2012 ◽  
Vol 588-589 ◽  
pp. 458-462
Author(s):  
Zhi Jian Yuan ◽  
Yan Li
Keyword(s):  
Engineering Application ◽  
Fuzzy Random Variable ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Voltage Sags ◽  
Equipment Failure ◽  
Failure Event ◽  
Cut Set ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fuzzy Random

The impact of voltage sags on equipment is usually described by equipment failure probability.It is generally difficult to assess and predict the probability because of the uncertainty of both the nature of voltage sags and the VTL (VTL) of equipment. By defining the equipment failure event caused by voltage sags as a fuzzy-random event, a fuzzy-random assessment model incorporating those uncertainty is developed. The model is able to convert the probability problem of a fuzzy-random variable to that of a common random variable by using λ-cut set. It is thus valuable in theoretical analysis and engineering application. The validity of the developed model is verified by Monte Carlo stochastic simulation using personal computers (PCs)as test equipment.

A multi-objective approach to design strategic supply chains and develop responsiveness- efficiency frontiers

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 365-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raed AlHusain ◽  
Reza Khorramshahgol
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Integer Programming ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Efficient Frontier ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Binary Integer Programming ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strategic Fit ◽  
Cost Efficient ◽  
Alternative Solutions

Purpose The purpose of this paper is twofold. Initially, a multi-objective binary integer programming model is proposed for designing an appropriate supply chain that takes into consideration both responsiveness and efficiency. Then, a responsiveness-cost efficient frontier is generated for the supply chain design that can help organizations find the right balance between responsiveness and efficiency, and hence achieve a strategic fit between organizational strategy and supply chain capabilities. Design/methodology/approach The proposed SC design model used both cross-functional and logistical SC drivers to build a binary integer programming model. To this end, various alternative solutions that correspond to different SC design portfolios were generated and a responsiveness-cost efficient frontier was constructed. Findings Various alternative solutions that correspond to different SC designs were generated and a responsiveness-cost efficient frontier was constructed to help the decision makers to design SC portfolios to achieve a strategic fit between organizational strategy and SC capabilities. Practical implications The proposed methodology enables the decision makers to incorporate both qualitative and quantitative judgements in SC design. The methodology is easy to use and it can be readily implemented by a software. Originality/value The proposed methodology allows for subjective value judgements of the decision makers to be considered in SC design and the efficiency-responsiveness frontier generated by the methodology provides a trade-off to be used when choosing between speed and cost efficiency in SC design.

Blinded by the light? Analyzing sustainability authenticity, customer service perceptions, and halo effects

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clinton Amos ◽  
Sebastian Brockhaus ◽  
Amydee M. Fawcett ◽  
Stanley E. Fawcett ◽  
A. Michael Knemeyer
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Corporate Sustainability ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Behavioral Experiments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainability Initiatives ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate how service perceptions influence customer views of the authenticity of corporate sustainability claims. The goal of this paper is to help supply chain decision-makers better understand boundary conditions in order to design more enduring and impactful sustainability programs.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ behavioral experiments, subjecting two theoretically derived hypotheses to verification across five diverse industries and two distinct sustainability vignettes.FindingsCustomer service perceptions emerge as a significant boundary condition to the perceived authenticity of sustainability efforts. Subjects attributed significantly higher authenticity toward sustainability efforts in above average vs below average service quality contexts. Further, respondents attributed deceptive motivations to sustainability efforts at companies with below average service.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors confirm the underlying tenet of social judgment theory, which suggests thata prioriperceptions create a zone of acceptability or rejection. Ultimately, investing in sustainability can lead to counterproductive cynicism.Practical implicationsThe authors infer that customers’ willingness to give companies credit for sustainability initiatives extends beyond service issues to any practice that influencesa prioriperceptions. Supply chain managers must rethink their role in designing both customer service and sustainability systems to achieve positive returns from sustainability investments.Originality/valueThe authors challenge the assumption that customers universally positively view sustainability efforts. If customers holda priorinegative service perceptions, otherwise well-designed sustainability programs may invoke cynical reactions. Thus, sustainability programs may not inoculate firm reputations from adverse incidents. Given they touch both service and sustainability systems, supply chain managers are positioned to holistically influence their design for competitive advantage.

Advertising strategy and contract coordination for a supply chain system: immediate and delayed effects

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Yu ◽  
Wei Yang ◽  
Na Xu ◽  
Yang Du
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Profit Maximization ◽  
Chain Structure ◽  
Transfer Payment ◽  
Supply Chain System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Delayed Effects ◽  
Advertising Effect ◽  
Chain System ◽  
Advertising Strategy

PurposeAfter receiving advertising messages, most consumers rarely purchase the advertised products at once, which results in a delay between advertising exposure and its effect. This paper is devoted to exploring the advertising decision and coordination issues for a supply chain system subject to advertising immediate and delayed effects.Design/methodology/approachBy applying the game theory, the differential game models with delay are constructed for the supply chain to examine the equilibrium advertising efforts, brand goodwill and the optimal profits under the different cooperation situations. A class of transfer payment contracts is designed to achieve the best outcome of the supply chain. Illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of addressed results and provide some managerial perspectives.FindingsIt can be found that the complete cooperation situation can stimulate the advertising investment, drive the product demand and improve the economic profit. Also, a class of transfer payment contracts is designed in this paper, such that the supply chain can perfectly realize the profit maximization, and each member can achieve the Pareto improvement.Research limitations/implicationsThis work does not address the random market environment, which can be filled in the future. Furthermore, this paper has been done in a single supply chain structure. It is an interesting future line of research when taking competitive behavior (e.g. competition among manufacturers, retailers or supply chains) into account.Practical implicationsThis study will help managers make advertising strategies, advise an optimal cooperation way and design the coordination contracts to ensure the economic development of the supply chain. These obtained conclusions may provide a valuable decision-support for marketing management.Originality/valueFor a supply chain, the most previous literature about dynamic advertising models focused on a single advertising effect-immediate effect. This work explores advertising strategy with double advertising effects and investigates the coordinating power of new transfer payment contracts.

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