Who predicts dollar-rupee volatility better? A tale of two options markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (9) ◽  
pp. 1292-1308
Author(s):  
Aparna Prasad Bhat

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether volatility implied from dollar-rupee options is an unbiased and efficient predictor of ex post volatility, and to determine which options market is a better predictor of future realized volatility and to ascertain whether the model-free measure of implied volatility outperforms the traditional measure derived from the Black–Scholes–Merton model. Design/methodology/approach The information content of exchange-traded implied volatility and that of quoted implied volatility for OTC options is compared with that of historical volatility and a GARCH(1, 1)-based volatility. Ordinary least squares regression is used to examine the unbiasedness and informational efficiency of implied volatility. Robustness of the results is tested by using two specifications of implied volatility and realized volatility and comparison across two markets. Findings Implied volatility from both OTC and exchange-traded options is found to contain significant information for predicting ex post volatility, but is neither unbiased nor informationally efficient. The implied volatility of at-the-money options derived using the Black–Scholes–Merton model is found to outperform the model-free implied volatility (MFIV) across both markets. MFIV from OTC options is found to be a better predictor of realized volatility than MFIV from exchange-traded options. Practical implications This study throws light on the predictive power of currency options in India and has strong practical implications for market practitioners. Efficient currency option markets can serve as effective vehicles both for hedging and speculation and can convey useful information to the regulators regarding the market participants’ expectations of future volatility. Originality/value This study is a comprehensive study of the informational efficiency of options on an emerging currency such as the Indian rupee. To the author’s knowledge, this is one of the first studies to compare the predictive ability of the exchange-traded and OTC markets and also to compare traditional model-dependent volatility with MFIV.

2008 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-94
Author(s):  
Byung Kun Rhee ◽  
Sang Won Hwang

Black-Scholes Imolied volatility (8SIV) has a few drawbacks. One is that the model Is not much successful in fitting the option prices. and It Is n야 guaranteed the model is correct one. Second. the usual tradition in using the BSIV is that only at-the-money Options are used. It is well-known that IV's of In-the-money or Qut-of-the-money ootions are much different from those estimated from near-the-money options. In this regard, a new model is confronted with Korean market data. Brittenxmes and Neuberger (2000) derive a formula for volatility which is a function of option prices‘ Since the formula is derived without using any option pricing model. volatility estimated from the formula is called model-tree implied volatillty (MFIV). MFIV overcomes the two drawbacks of BSIV. Jiang and Tian (2005) show that. with the S&P index Options (SPX), MFIV is suoerlor to historical volatility (HV) or BSIV in forecasting the future volatllity. In KOSPI 200 index options, when the forecasting performances are compared, MFIV is better than any other estimated volatilities. The hypothesis that MFIV contains all informations for realized volatility and the other volatilities are redundant is oot rejected in any cases.


2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1018-1034
Author(s):  
Channappa Santhosh

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of determinants on early internationalization in the context of an emerging economy, i.e. India. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on an ex post facto exploratory research using primary data collected from a sample of 102 exporting small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Bangalore. Findings The overall results reveal that it is the proactive entrepreneurs and their previous experience that determine the early internationalization of SMEs. Further, competitive constraint was a major obstacle to enter the international market at an early age for late internationalized SMEs. Practical implications The policy initiatives should aim to develop the international orientation of the entrepreneurs in the firm as a precursor for the formulation and subsequent implementation of internationalization strategies. Originality/value Although studies have been conducted on determinants and early internationalization, these are confined to a few dimensions, and none of the studies have looked into the issues affecting the early internationalization holistically and with respect to SMEs in India.


2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Yurchisin ◽  
Sara B. Marcketti

PurposeThis study aims to examine the characteristics of ethnographic textile collectors and compare them with the literature regarding fair trade consumers to explore the existence of a possible consumption constellation between collecting and fair trade purchasing.Design/methodology/approachPurposive sampling was used for the study as it maximized the attainment of significant information related to ethnographic textile collecting. Qualitative data from ethnographic textile collectors (n=12) were collected.FindingsResults suggested that collectors were interested in purchasing high quality, authentic products that expressed their identity and individuality. These are similarities shared with fair trade consumers. Furthermore, collectors' motives to help artisans overcome poverty were evident; a similar value guides fair trade purchasing.Research limitations/implicationsThe predominantly female sample of academics may not be representative of the average ethnographic textile collector.Practical implicationsUnderstanding the multiplicity of products and activities representative of one consumer group's lifestyle is beneficial to both for‐profit and non‐profit organizations in terms of product promotion or donation solicitation. The understanding of these consumers' lifestyle can, in turn, help marketers design and implement effective advertising and fundraising campaigns that improve the livelihood and wellbeing of excluded and disadvantaged people in developing countries.Originality/valueThe paper furthers the knowledge base and understanding of these different consumer segments by providing evidence of a consumption constellation between ethnographic textile collectors and fair trade consumers.


2017 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
pp. 843-857 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather Hill ◽  
Jen J.L. Pecoskie

Purpose Fanfiction communities are actively engaged in creating cultural products. These large online communities have created and developed conventions that guide their solutions to gathering and presenting their work. The purpose of this paper is to investigate those conventions looking for evidence of information-related pursuits as serious leisure (SL) (Stebbins, 2007). Design/methodology/approach A diverse collection of fanfiction publishing platforms, blogs, and associated websites were subject to a qualitative inductive analysis (Lincoln and Guba, 1985). Platforms included both generalist sites like Archive of Our Own and more focused sites such as Teen Wolf Fic Finder. Findings Findings show significant information-related activities around collecting, wayfinding, and organizing. Collecting centers on platform policies focused on scope. Wayfinding relates to peer review as well as various reference-like work including reader’s advisory, reference questioning, and the creation of pathfinders. Organizing looks to the unique organizational schema created and used by the fanfiction communities. Research limitations/implications The authors explore implications of these activities in reference to the fanfiction community and the library and information science (LIS) discipline. The fanfiction community is shifting out of an ephemeral existence and into one of a more permanent digital heritage. Fanfiction is an SL pursuit that also has much to offer for consideration to the LIS discipline. Practical implications With respect to the wayfinding and organizing conventions of fanfiction communities, these activities provide librarianship with the opportunity to consider traditional activities in new ways. Originality/value Fanfiction is a little studied phenomenon in SL and in LIS. This research provides connections to both areas.


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel-Angel Sicilia ◽  
Anna Visvizi

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to employ the case of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data repositories to examine the potential of blockchain technology in the context of addressing basic contemporary societal concerns, such as transparency, accountability and trust in the policymaking process. Current approaches to sharing data employ standardized metadata, in which the provider of the service is assumed to be a trusted party. However, derived data, analytic processes or links from policies, are in many cases not shared in the same form, thus breaking the provenance trace and making the repetition of analysis conducted in the past difficult. Similarly, it becomes tricky to test whether certain conditions justifying policies implemented still apply. A higher level of reuse would require a decentralized approach to sharing both data and analytic scripts and software. This could be supported by a combination of blockchain and decentralized file system technology.Design/methodology/approachThe findings presented in this paper have been derived from an analysis of a case study, i.e., analytics using data made available by the OECD. The set of data the OECD provides is vast and is used broadly. The argument is structured as follows. First, current issues and topics shaping the debate on blockchain are outlined. Then, a redefinition of the main artifacts on which some simple or convoluted analytic results are based is revised for some concrete purposes. The requirements on provenance, trust and repeatability are discussed with regards to the architecture proposed, and a proof of concept using smart contracts is used for reasoning on relevant scenarios.FindingsA combination of decentralized file systems and an open blockchain such as Ethereum supporting smart contracts can ascertain that the set of artifacts used for the analytics is shared. This enables the sequence underlying the successive stages of research and/or policymaking to be preserved. This suggests that, in turn, andex post, it becomes possible to test whether evidence supporting certain findings and/or policy decisions still hold. Moreover, unlike traditional databases, blockchain technology makes it possible that immutable records can be stored. This means that the artifacts can be used for further exploitation or repetition of results. In practical terms, the use of blockchain technology creates the opportunity to enhance the evidence-based approach to policy design and policy recommendations that the OECD fosters. That is, it might enable the stakeholders not only to use the data available in the OECD repositories but also to assess corrections to a given policy strategy or modify its scope.Research limitations/implicationsBlockchains and related technologies are still maturing, and several questions related to their use and potential remain underexplored. Several issues require particular consideration in future research, including anonymity, scalability and stability of the data repository. This research took as example OECD data repositories, precisely to make the point that more research and more dialogue between the research and policymaking community is needed to embrace the challenges and opportunities blockchain technology generates. Several questions that this research prompts have not been addressed. For instance, the question of how the sharing economy concept for the specifics of the case could be employed in the context of blockchain has not been dealt with.Practical implicationsThe practical implications of the research presented here can be summarized in two ways. On the one hand, by suggesting how a combination of decentralized file systems and an open blockchain, such as Ethereum supporting smart contracts, can ascertain that artifacts are shared, this paper paves the way toward a discussion on how to make this approach and solution reality. The approach and architecture proposed in this paper would provide a way to increase the scope of the reuse of statistical data and results and thus would improve the effectiveness of decision making as well as the transparency of the evidence supporting policy.Social implicationsDecentralizing analytic artifacts will add to existing open data practices an additional layer of benefits for different actors, including but not limited to policymakers, journalists, analysts and/or researchers without the need to establish centrally managed institutions. Moreover, due to the degree of decentralization and absence of a single-entry point, the vulnerability of data repositories to cyberthreats might be reduced. Simultaneously, by ensuring that artifacts derived from data based in those distributed depositories are made immutable therein, full reproducibility of conclusions concerning the data is possible. In the field of data-driven policymaking processes, it might allow policymakers to devise more accurate ways of addressing pressing issues and challenges.Originality/valueThis paper offers the first blueprint of a form of sharing that complements open data practices with the decentralized approach of blockchain and decentralized file systems. The case of OECD data repositories is used to highlight that while data storing is important, the real added value of blockchain technology rests in the possible change on how we use the data and data sets in the repositories. It would eventually enable a more transparent and actionable approach to linking policy up with the supporting evidence. From a different angle, throughout the paper the case is made that rather than simply data, artifacts from conducted analyses should be made persistent in a blockchain. What is at stake is the full reproducibility of conclusions based on a given set of data, coupled with the possibility ofex posttesting the validity of the assumptions and evidence underlying those conclusions.


2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
John D. Finnerty

Purpose – More than 80 percent of S&P 500 firms that issue ESOs use the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model and substitute the estimated average term for the contractual expiration to calculate ESO expense. This simplification systematically overprices ESOs, which worsens as the stock's volatility increases. The purpose of this paper is to present a modification of the BSM model to explicitly incorporate the rates of forfeiture pre- and post-vesting and the rate of early exercise. Design/methodology/approach – The paper demonstrates the model's usefulness by employing historical exercise and forfeiture data for 127 separate ESO grants and 1.31 billion ESOs to calculate the exercise and forfeiture parameters and value ESOs for nine firms. Findings – The modified BSM model is just as accurate but easier to use than the more computationally intensive utility maximization and trinomial lattice models, and it avoids the ASC 718 BSM model's overpricing bias. Originality/value – If firms prefer the BSM model over more mathematically elegant alternatives, they should at least use a BSM model that is free of overpricing bias.


2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (05) ◽  
pp. 1650030 ◽  
Author(s):  
RICHARD JORDAN ◽  
CHARLES TIER

The problem of fast pricing, hedging, and calibrating of derivatives is considered when the underlying does not follow the standard Black–Scholes–Merton model but rather a mean-reverting and deterministic volatility model. Mean-reverting models are often used for volatility, commodities, and interest-rate derivatives, while the deterministic volatility accounts for the nonconstant implied volatility. Trading desks often use numerical methods for real-time pricing, hedging, and calibration when implementing such models. A more efficient alternative is to use an analytic formula, even if only approximate. A systematic approach is presented, based on the WKB or ray method, to derive asymptotic approximations to the density function that can be used to derive simple formulas for pricing derivatives. Such approximations are usually only valid away from any boundaries, yet for some derivatives the values of the underlying near the boundaries are needed such as when interest rates are very low or for pricing put options. Hence, the ray approximation may not yield acceptable results. A new asymptotic approximation near boundaries is derived, which is shown to be of value for pricing certain derivatives. The results are illustrated by deriving new analytic approximations for European derivatives and their high accuracy is demonstrated numerically.


2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (01) ◽  
pp. 1450002 ◽  
Author(s):  
MASAAKI FUKASAWA

We revisit robust replication theory of volatility derivatives and introduce a broader class which may be considered as the second generation of volatility derivatives. One of them is a swap contract on the quadratic covariation between an asset price and the model-free implied variance (MFIV) of the asset. It can be replicated in a model-free manner and its fair strike may be interpreted as a model-free measure for the covariance of the asset price and the realized variance. The fair strike is given in a remarkably simple form, which enable to compute it from the Black–Scholes implied volatility surface. We call it the model-free implied leverage (MFIL) and give several characterizations. In particular, we show its simple relation to the Black–Scholes implied volatility skew by an asymptotic method. Further to get an intuition, we demonstrate some explicit calculations under the Heston model. We report some empirical evidence from the time series of the MFIV and MFIL of the Nikkei stock average.


2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (8) ◽  
pp. 857-870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shivam Singh ◽  
Vipul .

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the pricing performance of Black-Scholes (B-S) model, with the volatility of the underlying estimated with the two-scale realised volatility measure (TSRV) proposed by Zhang et al. (2005). Design/methodology/approach – The ex post TSRV is used as the volatility estimator to ensure efficient volatility estimation, without forecasting error. The B-S option prices, thus obtained, are compared with the market prices using four performance measures, for the options on NIFTY index, and three of its constituent stocks. The tick-by-tick data are used in this study for price comparisons. Findings – The B-S model shows significantly negative pricing bias for all the options, which is dependent on the moneyness of the option and the volatility of the underlying. Research limitations/implications – The negative pricing bias of B-S model, despite the use of the more efficient TSRV estimate, and post facto volatility values, confirms its inadequacy. It also points towards the possible existence of volatility risk premium in the Indian options market. Originality/value – The use of tick-by-tick data obviates the nonsynchronous error. TSRV, used for estimating the volatility, is a significantly improved estimate (in terms of efficiency and bias), as compared to the estimates based on closing data. The use of ex post realised volatility ensures that the forecasting error does not vitiate the test results. The sample is selected to be large and varied to ensure the robustness of the results.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-49
Author(s):  
Aparna Prasad Bhat

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to ascertain the effectiveness of major deterministic and stochastic volatility-based option pricing models in pricing and hedging exchange-traded dollar–rupee options over a five-year period since the launch of these options in India.Design/methodology/approachThe paper examines the pricing and hedging performance of five different models, namely, the Black–Scholes–Merton model (BSM), skewness- and kurtosis-adjusted BSM, NGARCH model of Duan, Heston’s stochastic volatility model and anad hocBlack–Scholes (AHBS) model. Risk-neutral structural parameters are extracted by calibrating each model to the prices of traded dollar–rupee call options. These parameters are used to generate out-of-sample model option prices and to construct a delta-neutral hedge for a short option position. Out-of-sample pricing errors and hedging errors are compared to identify the best-performing model. Robustness is tested by comparing the performance of all models separately over turbulent and tranquil periods.FindingsThe study finds that relatively simpler models fare better than more mathematically complex models in pricing and hedging dollar–rupee options during the sample period. This superior performance is observed to persist even when comparisons are made separately over volatile periods and tranquil periods. However the more sophisticated models reveal a lower moneyness-maturity bias as compared to the BSM model.Practical implicationsThe study concludes that incorporation of skewness and kurtosis in the BSM model as well as the practitioners’ approach of using a moneyness-maturity-based volatility within the BSM model (AHBS model) results in better pricing and hedging effectiveness for dollar–rupee options. This conclusion has strong practical implications for market practitioners, hedgers and regulators in the light of increased volatility in the dollar–rupee pair.Originality/valueExisting literature on this topic has largely centered around either US equity index options or options on major liquid currencies. While many studies have solely focused on the pricing performance of option pricing models, this paper examines both the pricing and hedging performance of competing models in the context of Indian currency options. Robustness of findings is tested by comparing model performance across periods of stress and tranquility. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this paper is one of the first comprehensive studies to focus on an emerging market currency pair such as the dollar–rupee.


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