US-China sea disputes will draw in allies

Significance Increased anxiety over Chinese land reclamation in the South China Sea, particularly its construction of an airstrip and harbour on Fiery Cross Reef, is drawing considerable attention to US policy in the region where US allies have been pressing for greater involvement. Impacts Regional and US rhetoric on Chinese reclamation may provoke an increased demonstration of US military engagement in the region. However, the size and scale of these activities will be highly dependent on the pace and character of Chinese activities. This issue is likely to be featured conspicuously by Carter at the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore. It will almost certainly raise difficulties during Chinese President Xi Jinping's September visit to Washington. Given Hillary Clinton's previous statements, pursuing a 'tough' China policy may become a prominent theme of her presidential bid.

Subject The environmental politics of artificial island-building in the South China Sea. Significance Recent satellite photography has illustrated China's land reclamation and island-building work in the disputed Spratly islands in the South China Sea. Artificial island-building is likely to facilitate increases in the permanent population of the area. This raises the question of island-building's environmental, social and industrial implications. Impacts Extracting any South China Sea oil and gas reserves could damage maritime ecology further. If artificial island populations grow, waste management could become a problem. Mutual need to protect fishing stocks could provide an avenue for multilateral discussion on maritime disputes.


2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-150
Author(s):  
Nalanda Roy

Purpose Southeast Asia’s position between the continents of Asia and Oceania gave the region a distinctive identity. Over the years, Southeast Asia has witnessed several important political changes and the emergence of new security threats. Historical mistrust, enduring territorial disputes and competition for maritime claims and resources have combined to weaken the regional security structure. The purpose of this paper is to explore whether China’s growing assertive position in the region bring some fresh air in the region following Beijing’s collaborative initiatives. Design/methodology/approach Seas are a central concern for Southeast Asian countries, so it is hardly surprising that the countries in the region are strongly nationalistic in asserting and protecting their claims. Maritime policy analyst, Mark Valencia, comments, “Indeed, when countries in Asia think maritime, they think first and foremost about boundary disputes, not the protection of the deteriorating marine environment or management of dwindling fisheries […] [it] is these perceptions that must change.” This paper will explore whether China’s growing assertive position in the name of diplomatic cooperation will mellow down and bring some fresh air into the South China Sea (SCS) region following Beijing’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiatives. Findings The world is still unsure when it comes to SCS! It often feels like “Pengci” or the art of staging drama to get the desired outcome? Beijing has to address the increasing global fears and uncertainty about her motives and talk more about its dracoplomacy. At one point, Beijing followed Xiaoping’s famous guideline: “hide our capacities and bide our time.” But now, things have changed. China is no longer actively avoiding international limelight. The motto has become “going international.” This change was not all talk either rather it was accompanied by significant, short-term action. Since becoming president, Xi has already visited more than 40 countries with his OBOR dream! It is important for Beijing to emphasize the purpose of her massive infrastructure push. That is, to achieve economic development, rather than to satisfy her growing political ambitions on the global stage. The creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and other major geo-economic projects are signs that Beijing is using her coercive diplomacy in a subtler way. Therefore, this paper checks whether Beijing’s Silk Road spirit will be successful enough to maintain its agility and grace in the future. Originality/value This is an original piece of work, and it adds value to the special issue titled “China’s Rise and Power Shifts in Asia: Geopolitical, Socio-Economic and Historical Perspectives.”


2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 1207-1212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Li ◽  
Qi-hang Xu ◽  
Xiao-tian Wang ◽  
Hou-wen Lin ◽  
Yan-hua Lu

A novel marine actinomycete, designated LHW63021T, was isolated from a marine sponge, genus Craniella, collected in the South China Sea. A polyphasic approach was applied to characterize the taxonomic position of this strain. The strain was found to have scarce aerial mycelia that differentiated into spore chains. The cell-wall hydrolysates contained meso-diaminopimelic acid as the diagnostic diamino acid. Glucose, galactose, mannose and madurose were found in the whole-cell hydrolysates. The dominant polar lipids were phosphatidylinositol and diphosphatidylglycerol. MK-9(H6) and MK-9(H8) were the predominant menaquinones. The major fatty acids were iso-C16 : 0, iso-C18 : 0, 10-methyl C17 : 0 and C18 : 1 ω9c. The DNA G+C content based on the draft genome sequence was 72.0 mol%. 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis indicated that strain LHW63021T was a member of the genus Actinomadura and had the highest similarity to Actinomadura echinospora DSM 43163T (97.3 %). Phylogenetic trees supported their close relationship. The average nucleotide identity and digital DNA–DNA hybridization values between the whole genome sequences of strain LHW63021T and A. echinospora DSM 43163T were 79.13 and 23.20 %, respectively. The evidence from the polyphasic study shows that strain LHW63021T represents a novel species of the genus Actinomadura , for which the name Actinomadura craniellae sp. nov. is proposed. The type strain is LHW63021T (=DSM 106125T=CCTCC AA 2018015T).


Significance However, China's navy already has an operational sea-based nuclear deterrent based on Hainan Island. The deployment of nuclear-armed submarines, and their need to reach the mid-Pacific to threaten the continental United States, makes the South China Sea an arena not just of maritime disputes but of US-China military rivalry. Impacts The strategic importance of the Philippines, Taiwan and Singapore to the United States will increase. A new defence agreement with the Philippines will, as of last month, support US military activities in the area. Washington will encourage greater Japanese involvement in the South China Sea; as long as Shinzo Abe is prime minister, Japan will oblige.


Subject The outlook for deepening defence links between Japan and Malaysia. Significance Chinese Politburo member Yu Zhengsheng warned visiting Japanese lawmakers on June 29 that the South China Sea maritime disputes have "nothing to do with Japan". This comes amid new developments in South-east Asian governments' efforts to strengthen security cooperation with Japan. Among them is the agreement between Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on May 25 to elevate bilateral ties to the level of 'Strategic Partnership'. This reflects Malaysia's growing concern over China's actions in the South China Sea, which are increasingly expanding southwards, affecting Malaysian-claimed territorial waters. Malaysian officials on June 9 announced a complaint to China over a Chinese coast guard vessel near Luconia Shoals. Impacts The Philippines's armed forces are less powerful than Malaysia's, implying more scope to develop Japan-Philippines defence ties. Vietnam, and perhaps Indonesia, may be the next ASEAN countries to seek deeper defence ties with Japan. Malaysian criticism of China over the South China Sea could see a more assertive ASEAN over disputed maritime claims.


Subject ASEAN-China security cooperation. Significance China-ASEAN security cooperation has moderated the assertiveness Beijing displayed in the South China Sea during the first half of this year. In October, China and the ASEAN states held their first ever joint naval exercise. Impacts The verbal statements on regional maritime security cooperation will increasingly be followed by concrete actions. Negotiations over a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea will advance slowly and contentiously. China-Philippines joint energy explorations in the South China Sea will remain hamstrung by Philippine constitutional conditions.


Subject The South China Sea dispute. Significance China and the United States increased their military activities in the South China Sea in January and February, with US ‘freedom of navigation operations’ (FONOPs) pushing back on Chinese maritime jurisdictional claims in the area. The Philippines before June 2016 contested China’s expansive claims. Increased rivalry between Beijing and Washington in South-east Asia raises the risk of a dangerous naval confrontation. Impacts The Philippines will continue to solicit investment from China. China is unlikely to undertake actions in the South China Sea that would seriously irk the Philippines. South-east Asian countries will emphasise the importance of the region not becoming a theatre for China-US rivalry.


Significance South-east Asian leaders will discuss the South China Sea dispute, the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar and regional trade. ASEAN’s eight dialogue partners, including the United States and China, will be present at the talks. Impacts An eventual Code of Conduct for the South China Sea is likely to include an air code recently agreed by ASEAN defence ministers. Myanmar could face EU trade sanctions over the Rohingya crisis. ASEAN is likely to boost cooperation over counterterrorism, cybersecurity and climate change.


Subject The maritime dispute between China and Malaysia in the South China Sea. Significance The inaugural 'One Belt and One Road China-Malaysia Business Dialogue' took place on July 15. 'One Belt and One Road' is the cooperative infrastructure investment initiative that the Xi Jinping administration presents as its signature foreign policy initiative. Yet for many in the region it has been overshadowed by Beijing's maritime assertiveness. Even China's normally cordial relations with Malaysia are now under threat from tensions at sea, where China Coast Guard ships at a disputed reef have prompted a low-key but serious standoff. Impacts Relations between Beijing and Kuala Lumpur will face their first serious test since the early 1990s. China is likely to claim Luconia Breakers as its southernmost territory under international law. Opposition politicians in Malaysia will put pressure on the Najib administration to resist China's actions. ASEAN will be more proactive in the South China Sea disputes under Malaysia's chairmanship.


Subject Significance Comments by US President Donald Trump and members of his administration indicate that US policy in the South China Sea will be unpredictable and potentially destabilising. Impacts Trump's personal approach will likely contain a mix of aggressive posturing and unexpected concessions. If cabinet officials exert a moderating influence, the administration will develop a bifurcated approach to China. Beijing will try hard to keep relations on an even keel. Provocative US actions would quickly alter Asian states’ perceptions that Chinese assertiveness is the primary driver of regional tensions. The South China Sea is a non-negotiable 'core interest' for Beijing, even if the Trump administration tries to link it to trade issues.


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