Ireland's new government may be short-lived

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Fianna Fail ◽  
The Eu

Subject Ireland's new government. Significance On May 6, the leader of the Fine Gael party, Enda Kenny, was re-elected Ireland's prime minister. He leads a minority coalition government consisting of Fine Gael and independents, on the basis of a 'confidence and supply' agreement with Fianna Fail, the largest opposition party. Impacts The government's minority in the Seanad, the upper house of the Irish parliament, could lead to delays in policy-making. Strong economic growth and falling unemployment may increase the government's financial scope of action. A 'Brexit' could cause significant economic difficulties for Ireland and render it more isolated in the EU.

Five-party Latvian government may not last full term

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Full Term ◽  
Think Tanks ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Eu

Subject Latvia’s new government. Significance Elections in October followed the recent European trend of producing a particularly fractured parliament. With seven of the 16 competing parties winning seats, negotiations on forming a governing coalition were complicated. Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins’s administration took office on January 23, more than 100 days after the election. Impacts With economic growth moderating to 3.1% from 4.7% in 2018, Latvia’s GDP per capita ranking (23rd in the EU in 2017) will continue to lag. A dearth of think tanks and policy units means a lack of ideas about how to generate faster growth and stem demographic decline. Failure to find solutions to Latvia’s problems will lead to yet more popular disenchantment.

Kosovo election is break with past but doubts remain

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
The Eu

Significance It gained 25.8% of the popular vote, on a turnout of 44.0%. Another opposition party, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), came second with 24.9%. The former governing parties were roundly defeated. Vetevendosje’s victory constitutes a potential watershed moment for Kosovo, 20 years after the country broke from Serbia, although much depends on how effectively the party can govern. Impacts Vetevendosje aims to galvanise economic growth but at the risk of curbing market freedoms, especially in strategic sectors of the economy. Mutual suspicion between Vetevendosje and the EU will complicate efforts at advancing Kosovo’s integration. The election of a pan-Albanian party could galvanise Albanian nationalism in North Macedonia, riven by intra-Slavic party rivalries.

Moldovan government has window for reform

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
The Eu

Subject A possible period of respite for Moldova. Significance In a break from its predecessors, Moldova's new coalition government came to power with a strong anti-corruption agenda and is starting to reform the system. The coalition's senior partner, the Socialist Party, is solidly pro-Moscow, but Prime Minister Maia Sandu belongs to the pro-Western Acum DA PAS, and she and like-minded ministers are shaping reformist policies. These policies are underpinned by a commercial shift: the share of trade with the EU is growing while that with Russia is falling. Impacts Moscow will have to tolerate Chisinau's refusal to commit to closer Eurasian integration. Romania's growing economic ties with Moldova will strengthen its voice in EU politics. Moldovan growth, fuelled by exports to the EU, will help keep Transnistria's economy afloat.

UK prime minister will likely remain in power for now

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Culture Wars ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The Eu

Significance As many as a dozen lockdown parties are now alleged to have been held at Downing Street, significantly damaging Johnson’s support among the public and his Conservative Party. His position as party leader and prime minister is gravely threatened. Impacts Johnson’s domestic troubles, coupled with rising economic concerns, increase the chance of an agreement with the EU over Northern Ireland. Disillusionment with Johnson, opposition to net-zero and culture wars open the door for Nigel Farage’s Reform Party to revive its appeal. Rising inflation threatens to undermine consumer confidence and slow the economic recovery over the coming year.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

Next Dutch government will likely be ‘greener’

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Dutch Government ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Targets ◽  
A Priority ◽  
The Eu

Significance Government formation should have been relatively straightforward but a series of political controversies have damaged VVD leader and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s credibility with the CU and some opposition parties. Impacts The collective rise of the far-right vote means the far right will continue to worry centrist parties and thus influence government policy. Investment in nuclear energy to meet climate targets is unlikely to be a priority for the new government. Dutch influence in the EU could grow with the departure of Merkel in September, and Macron’s focus on the 2022 election.

Cambodia in 2018

Asian Survey ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 170-176
Author(s):  
Aurel Croissant
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Eu

In 2018, ever-incumbent Prime Minister Hun Sen scored a landslide victory in the Cambodian general elections. Three factors in particular explain this outcome. First, the elimination of the main opposition party, whose strategy of a peaceful election boycott failed. Second, favorable economic conditions and government handouts of spoils to constituencies that traditionally supported the opposition. Third, the weak leverage of the United States and the EU, and the Hun Sen regime’s strong links with China.

Invalid Hungarian referendum will gain Orban little

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Amendments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The Hungarian government's anti-immigration stance. Significance Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his government have been campaigning against the wave of migrants seeking refuge in Europe, and the EU's handling of the resulting crisis. The government hoped a referendum on October 2 would reject EU settlement of non-Hungarians in Hungary without parliament's consent. With a turnout of less than 50%, the referendum is null and void. Orban's Fidesz party nevertheless claimed victory, as 98.6% of those who cast a valid vote opposed relocation. Impacts The opposition to Fidesz will be able to frame the referendum as its first victory since 2010 and try to build unity on that basis. Fidesz will be unable to extend its popular support on the basis of these results. The EU is unlikely to react forcefully to constitutional amendments in Hungary, given Brexit and elections in France and Germany.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

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