Recurrent miner stand-offs will endure in Bolivia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Use Of Force ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Excessive Use Of Force

Significance The government's dispute with mining cooperatives has produced violent confrontations. While the government is standing its ground, claiming that the protesters' demands violate constitutional norms, Concobol has extended its original list of demands, from ten to 24, and has devolved responsibility for the organisation of demonstrations to individual federations in an effort to foster new protest methods. Impacts The police will become increasingly impatient with the unrest, raising the risk of excessive use of force. Road blocks will alienate public opinion quickly when they begin to cause shortages of key goods. While Concobol's extended list of demands appears to complicate matters, it may provide more leeway in negotiations.

Turkey's Kurds will be angry if HDP is not re-elected

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Guerrilla Warfare ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Religious Elements

Significance The process looks in danger. Serious local conflicts in south-eastern Turkey are straining tensions between Kurds and the government, even though guerrilla warfare has not resumed. Kurdish self-confidence is rising because of its fighters' success in expelling Islamic State group (ISG) from Kobani. However, dialogue between the government and imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan continues, and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu seems more sensitive to Kurdish aspirations than his predecessors. Impacts Ocalan's leadership of the PKK is unshakable, but his ability to persuade his followers to avoid clashes on the streets is weakening. The conflict between the Kurds and Islamists inside Turkey will grow. Public opinion, including conservative religious elements, will block significant concessions to the Kurds, limiting the government's scope. The Kurds are emerging as a key regional opponent of Islamist politics.

Narrow win limits new Jamaican government's options

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
National Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Message ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opinion Polls

Subject Outlook for the new government. Significance Despite opinion polls before the February 25 election indicating a victory for the incumbent People's National Party (PNP), the opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) won a narrow one-seat victory and JLP leader Andrew Holness was sworn in as prime minister for a second time on March 3. The PNP ran a lacklustre campaign that failed to galvanise its core supporters. In contrast, the JLP offered a positive message of tax cuts and job creation. Impacts Absent rapid economic improvements, public opinion may turn against the new government. Juggling IMF targets and popular demands may prove beyond the JLP's capabilities. The government has only a narrow window of opportunity before the PNP recovers from its surprise defeat.

French labour reform may be watered down further

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current State ◽  
Significant Step ◽  
Promotional Campaign ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right

Significance The draft law was presented by Labour Minister Myriam El Khomry in late February and aims at introducing more flexibility in France's rigid labour market. The government has led a promotional campaign in favour of the reform, against a backdrop of opposition from trade unions, students and public opinion. Valls has watered down the most controversial proposals but even in its current state the proposed reform would be a significant step forward. Impacts The government will need to assemble a diverse majority spanning the centre-left to the centre-right in order to pass the draft law by July. Reformist trade unions support the revised version of the law but more militant unions maintain their opposition. The right wing and the main employer association oppose the revised draft which they consider not favourable enough to companies.

Sendic departure may boost Uruguayan government

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Uruguay's political and economic outlook. Significance Vice-President Raul Sendic, elected in November 2014, resigned on September 9 as he faced legal and political questions relating to corruption allegations. His departure is a stain on the leftist government’s ethical credentials but opens up the possibility of improved coordination between the executive and legislature to expedite plans that are delayed or blocked in Congress. It comes as second-quarter data demonstrate economic growth, although public opinion remains gloomy. Impacts Growth will be insufficient to boost employment or consumer confidence this year. Sendic’s resignation was a setback but may have longer-term positive implications for the government. The FA may nevertheless struggle to retain the presidency in 2019, after 15 years in office.

US foreign policy differences to sharpen in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
The United States ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
The Government

Significance Trump entered office deeply sceptical of the importance of wars in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, but his critics say his troop-withdrawal announcements are timed to distract US public opinion from the Mueller probe into his administration and 2016 election campaign. Other critics -- some of them otherwise Trump’s allies, including Republican senators -- fear the troop withdrawals will raise the terrorism threat facing the United States. Impacts A government shutdown tonight would see a further push for continuing resolutions to fund the government, pending further talks. Mattis had been a quasi-envoy to US defence partners in Asia; they will be concerned by his departure. Resurgence of terrorism in Syria or Afghanistan could undermine Trump politically, if the threat facing the United States rises. Republican Senate control should help Mattis’s replacement get confirmed more easily.

Hong Kong government cannot ignore protester demands

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Use Of Force ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Chief Executive ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Independent Judiciary ◽  
Universal Suffrage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Selection Of

Subject The demands set out by anti-government protesters in Hong Kong. Significance Mass protests have forced the government to withdraw an unpopular bill allowing extradition to mainland China. However, the protesters’ agenda has broadened to include four more demands: repudiation of the government’s designation of the protests as ‘riots’; amnesty for all protesters; an independent probe into the police’s use of force; and universal suffrage for the selection of Hong Kong’s chief executive. Impacts Investigations, trials and lawsuits will drag on for years, poisoning the political atmosphere and hindering cooperation between camps. Hong Kong’s independent judiciary may be a moderating influence. Replacing Lam would not be a fresh start; the process would spotlight Hong Kong’s lack of democracy.

Research on public emotional polarization and public opinion evolution of OTC and learning during the COVID-19 epidemic: taking the topic of OTC on Zhihu as an example

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Feng ◽  
Xu Wang ◽  
Yue Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Topic Model ◽  
Development Trend ◽  
Intrinsic Structure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Learning And Teaching ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government ◽  
Emotional Value

PurposeThe outbreak and continuation of COVID-19 have spawned the transformation of traditional teaching models to a certain extent. The Chinese Ministry of Education’s guidance on “keep learning and teaching during class suspension” has made OTC and learning (OTC) become routinized, and the public’s emotional attitudes toward OTC have also evolved over time. The purpose of this study is to segment the emotional text data and introduce it into the topic model to reveal the evolution process and stage characteristics of public emotional polarity and public opinion of OTC topics during public health emergencies in the context of social media participation. The research has important guiding significance for the development of OTC and can influence and improve the efficiency and effect of OTC to a certain extent. The analysis of online public opinion can provide suggestions for the government and media to guide the trend of public opinion and optimize the OTC model.Design/methodology/approachThis paper takes the topic of “OTC” on Zhihu during the COVID-19 epidemic as an example, combined with the characteristics of public opinion changes, chooses Boson emotional dictionary and time series analysis method to build an OTC network public opinion theme evolution analysis framework that integrates emotional analysis and topic mining. Finally, an empirical analysis of the dynamic evolution of the communication network for each stage of the life cycle of a specific topic is realized.FindingsThis paper draws the following conclusions: (1) Through the emotional value table and the change trend chart of the number of comments, the analysis found that the number of positive comments is greater than the number of negative comments, which can be inferred that the public gradually accepts “OTC” and presents a positive emotional state. (2) By observing the changing trend of the average daily emotional value of the public, it is found that the overall emotional value shows a stable development trend after a large fluctuation. From the actual emotional value and the fitted emotional value curve, it can be seen that the overall curve fit is good, so ARIMA (12, 1, 6) can accurately predict the dynamic trend of the daily average emotional value in this paper. Therefore, based on the above-mentioned public opinion, emotional analysis research, relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, which is conducive to guiding the development direction of public opinion in a positive way.Originality/valueTaking the topic of “OTC” in Zhihu as an example, this paper combines Boson emotional dictionary and time series to conduct a series of research analyses. Boson emotional dictionary can analyze the public’s emotional tendency, and time series can well analyze the intrinsic structure and complex features of the data to predict the future values. The combination of the two research methods allows for an adequate and unique study of public emotional polarization and the evolution of public opinion.

Modest Uruguay optimism will not relieve disillusion

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Great Difficulty ◽  
Early Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower House ◽  
The Government

Significance GDP expanded by 1.5% in 2016 and early data for 2017 are promising. However, the government has suffered an unprecedented fall in public opinion. The Frente Amplio (FA), in power since 2005, has also lost its Lower House majority. The coalition must seek approval of the 2018-20 budget amid internal tensions that reduce its room for manoeuvre. Impacts The government will have great difficulty in reversing growing public disillusion. Growth will not affect unemployment and policy concerns. Nevertheless, the opposition will struggle to capitalise on discontent.

Corruption findings will strain Nigerien government

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The United States ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Military Procurement ◽  
The Government

Subject Corruption in military procurement. Significance With the presidential election set to take place in December, the government is under fire over its lenient approach to corruption in military procurement -- at a time when Nigerien soldiers have been losing their lives in the struggle to combat jihadist armed groups. With 160 Nigerien soldiers killed in recent jihadist attacks, the theft of money that could have been used better to equip the armed forces is a hot issue, particularly as the alleged culprits have connections to the ruling PNDS Taraya party. This offers opponents a chance to mobilise public opinion against the government. Impacts The exposure of corruption damages the ruling party’s claim of a track record of effective public sector management. The government allows culprits to escape jail time if they repay stolen funds, which will alienate urban public opinion. France and the United States will not publicly criticise the government, a key ally.

Doubts about fairness will dog Bolivian election

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Latin American ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Playing Field ◽  
Economic Difficulty ◽  
The Government

Subject Election fairness. Significance A leading Latin American jurist warned last week that Bolivia’s forthcoming general election risks being unfree and unfair. While the electoral authorities seek to create an even playing field, the government of interim President Jeanine Anez has systematically sought to marginalise former President Evo Morales’s Movimiento al Socialismo (Movement towards Socialism, MAS), jailing many of its key leaders and forcing others into exile. Active campaigning is about to begin in what promises to be a conflictive campaign. Impacts Carlos Mesa seems to have lost ground since the October elections and may struggle to regain it in a fragmented field. Anez will use her presidential office to rally support. Whoever wins will polarise public opinion and will face a period of considerable economic difficulty.

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