China's economic outlook post-COVID-19 and beyond

China fue la primera economía en sufrir la pandemia de la COVID-19, pero también fue el primer país ensalir de la misma, aunque la fuerte recuperación ha tenido poco recorrido dado que China está entrandoen una rápida desaceleración cíclica que contribuye a incrementar una desaceleración de tipo estructural.Más allá de las perturbaciones económicas a corto plazo, las consecuencias de la pandemia podríanafectar al crecimiento a medio plazo debido a una aceleración del crecimiento de la deuda y de riesgosfinancieros. Yendo más allá, la desaceleración estructural de China está encaminada a acentuarse debidoal envejecimiento de la población y a la rápida desaceleración de la productividad del trabajo. Además, elrápido deterioro de la situación exterior, sobre todo con los Estados Unidos, también va a ser un elementoque dificulte el crecimiento de China. Por último, el nuevo mantra chino de «prosperidad compartida»también tiene una importante influencia en las perspectivas de crecimiento futuro en China.

A revival of money velocity would pressure the US Fed

Significance The debate about how transitory this inflation is will persist. One way to consider the phenomenon is to examine the velocity of money -- the ratio of nominal GDP to monetary aggregate M1 or M2 -- which measures how many times money is changing hands, reflecting the willingness of consumers and businesses to engage in economic transactions. Money velocity remains modest but, if it rises, inflation pressures will also rise. Impacts The extent to which pandemic-related behavioural changes persist will shape the longer-term economic outlook and change many sectors. The Fed's communication policy will be key to calming markets; research shows that it has successfully anchored inflation expectations. Two years after COVID-19 was first known to be circulating, its spread remains the largest influence on the economic outlook.

Economic and Emotional Perceptions During and After COVID19

Faced with the SARS-CoV-2pandemic, we decided to investigate if recovery from this large exogenous global shock depended on both emotional and economic recovery. We piloted a survey from May 2020 – August 2020 to examine how exposure to this global pandemic shaped economic outlook, and we documented the innate emotional styles of respondents. We then sought to answer two questions. Do the emotional style dimensions have anything to do with economic recovery? And are wages and emotional dimensions associated with economic outlook? With these questions in mind, we estimated two structural equation models. We jointly estimated all six emotional dimensions for the first question and assessed their impact on economic outlook. We estimated a structural model with a Mincer-wage equation and emotional outlook, resilience, and attention equations for the second question. We found that emotional outlook was positively and significantly correlated with economic outlook. We also found that wages, emotional- outlook, resilience, and attention were correlated with returning to behavior-normal, meaning once the public health crisis abates, fear will cease to restrict mobility in all sectors. We found pessimism over returning to business-normal, patronizing businesses that are significantly affected by the pandemic could have a dampening effect on economic recovery. However, this could be offset by the positive correlations between emotional outlook on economic outlook and returning to behavior-normal, both of which could boost economic recovery. From a public policy standpoint fostering a positive emotional outlook and encouraging emotional resilience could be the mojo needed for faster economic recovery.

(Not So) Stranded: The Case of Coal in Poland

This paper provides an evaluation of the stranding risks of coal in Poland. Combining an industrial organization and financial analysis approach, we assess the current economic situation of companies operating within the coal industry and draft forecasts for the future. Based on the global economic outlook for coal, we claim that phasing-out coal will take at least two decades, due to the slow transformation of the energy sector and increasing energy demand. The financial evaluation of coal-dependent companies revealed sound financial conditions due to favorable trends in coal prices in international markets. Therefore, instead of prioritizing a rapid phasing-out of coal, we pledge to make more technological investments that would make burning coal less harmful for the planet and thus efficiently mitigate the negative effects of climate change.

Comparison of Gross Domestic Product Forecasts before and after the Covid-19

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) publish annual reports on the world economic outlook. This study compared the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of different countries by these 2 institutions, before and after the Covid-19 pandemic. The countries were selected from the 6 regions of Africa, the Americas, the Eastern Mediterranean, Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Western Ocean. In order to be able to compare these countries, WB reports were selected as a model and then the corresponding economic data were extracted from the IMF.

Between the world of economics and the world of physical sciences there would be a link that is anything but hypothetical

The compatibility between humanity and nature should be related to a trend that would lead us hopefully in a short time to the full neutrality between man and the planet we all live on. Along this trend, essentially due to the cooperation and help of science and knowledge, the humankind is able to collect news and information on the level of pollution we produce, not to be exceeded. Individually, the information on the pollution degree received from nature comes to us through the monetary system. Therefore, the community is warned that we are approaching a limit not to be exceeded in creating pollution inside the environment and the warning comes through the nominal price system, that is through inflation and deflation. These two are nothing more than messages, like ectoplasms, that is a sort of symbols taking shape due to the economic instability and, once inside the economic environment, they lose contact with the economic entourage. Nor could it be otherwise, because their task is for information purposes only, and they must create within the community the loss of confidence in the economic outlook. Due to this loss of trust, the economy slows down and takes a pause in favor of the environment quality, which improves thanks to the reduced economic activity. It’s a sort of alert system with the same message function both for inflation and deflation. However, their fate is anyway different not for a natural reason but for the different response given by monetary policy upon arrival of inflation or deflation. In the case of inflation, the monetary policy response is the symmetry between nominal price increases and interest rates. This increase in rates is producing a cycle retreat that is consistent with the request for a pause of the natural system. While in the case of deflation, the symmetry between the decline in nominal prices and interest rates is in contrast with the economic system demanding for a pause. This potential opposition can cause some anomalies in the wealth and income distribution.