Better internet access faces hurdles in Latin America

Subject Internet penetration in Latin America. Significance The number of households connected to the internet in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has more than doubled over the past five years while the cost of access has dropped sharply, according to a report released by the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on September 12. However, connection speeds remain low by international standards and there are wide geographic and socioeconomic differences in access. Impacts Government efforts will be required to narrow income-related gaps in internet access, particularly in poorer countries. A key challenge for LAC is to raise mobile internet speeds to levels that permit greater use of services and applications. The Brazilian economy's contraction is likely to slow the growth of e-commerce in this key market.

Subject The deteriorating fiscal position. Significance According to the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), government deficits in most South American countries and Mexico widened in 2015 for the third consecutive year, in a context of slower economic growth and lower commodity prices. Barring Brazil, the increase was generally small but government borrowing, rising for several years, is increasingly limiting administrations' room for fiscal manoeuvre. Impacts Government borrowing is rising -- as are borrowing costs. Declining revenues may force unpopular spending cuts, worsening growth prospects. Caribbean countries in particular face unsustainable debt-servicing burdens that leave little for social and investment spending.


Subject The outlook for unemployment in Latin America. Significance Unemployment in the region will rise this year for the first time since 2009, according to an October report by the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO). There are also signs of deterioration in job quality and that households are beginning to feel the pinch of slower GDP growth. Impacts In Brazil, the number of wage earners fell in absolute terms in the first half of 2015, a trend that is accelerating. In a typical feature of economic slowdowns, the number of women seeking jobs will continue to increase sharply. An already large productivity gap between micro and larger businesses is likely to widen.


Subject Social and economic inequality. Significance After its progress in reducing poverty, highlighted by a recent report of the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Chile faces the complex and socially divisive challenge of tackling its deep-rooted economic and social inequalities. Impacts The key problem in addressing poverty will be its concentration in specific groups of the population. Some of the government’s planned reforms, such as pension reform, would help to improve income distribution. The outcome of the government’s Country Undertaking initiative will depend on its ability to implement the resulting ideas.


Subject The expansion of low-cost airlines in Latin America. Significance In late October, the first tickets for flights with Wingo -- a new no-frills carrier running routes between Colombia, Central America and the Caribbean -- went on sale. The new Colombia-based company is competing directly against several traditional and budget airlines for a share of the growing market for domestic and international air travel within the region. Wingo's creation, together with that of Viva Air Peru in November, highlights the continued disruption to a sector long dominated by a small number of high-cost carriers. Impacts Greater availability of reasonably priced international flights will boost Latin American tourism to the Caribbean. Cheap air travel may also help expand and consolidate regional trade ties, reducing the cost of business trips. Increased flight frequency and passenger numbers will help regional airports which have often operated below capacity.


Significance However, according to the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the coronavirus pandemic may undo more than a decade’s progress on labour participation, with a disproportionate effect on poorer women. Impacts Even pre-pandemic, one in four women compared with one in ten men lacked an income of their own; this will worsen. The number of women below the poverty line increased by almost one-fifth in 2020, which will affect families and children in particular. Some LAC countries are approaching gender parity in political institutions such as parliaments.


Subject The outlook for inward FDI. Significance A drop in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2014 marked a change of trend, according to a report released on May 27 by the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). The decline, attributed principally to lower commodity prices, was the first since 2009 and is likely to persist this year. Impacts At 2.6% of GDP, inbound FDI in 2014 was its lowest since 2009 and will remain slightly below its long-term average this year. Lower commodity prices reduced average returns on FDI to around 5% in 2014, down from over 9% in 2006-08; no rapid upturn is likely. Most investment abroad by LAC companies is within the region and, in 2015, will continue to be constrained by its sluggish growth.


Subject Poverty and income inequality. Significance On January 26, the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) released its latest annual report on poverty and income distribution. In a mixed picture marked by important differences between countries, it found that progress in reducing total poverty has stalled, and extreme poverty has increased slightly. However, income inequality appears to be continuing to diminish, although more slowly than before the 2008-09 crisis. Impacts Since 2011, government social spending again appears to have become pro-cyclical, hampering progress on poverty. The gender gap remains the largest stumbling block to reducing poverty and inequality. In the poorest countries, there are not only more poor people but they also suffer more types of deprivation.


Subject Declining regional growth projections. Significance According to a report issued on December 17 by the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the region's GDP contracted by 0.4% this year, slowing for a fifth consecutive year, and will grow by a mere 0.2% in 2016. Impacts Brazil's forecast 2.0% contraction next year partly reflects, and will contribute to, the country's political crisis. ECLAC's 0.8% growth forecast for Argentina depends on the new government's success in reactivating investment. If private consumption and investment continue to contract, the region's labour markets will weaken again next year.


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 213-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Casanova ◽  
Le Xia ◽  
Romina Ferreira

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to deploy an export dependency index to identify the sectors and countries in Latin America which are most exposed to fluctuations in Chinese demand. Bilateral trade between China and Latin America has grown very quickly in the past decade. As a consequence, economic relationships with Latin America intensified tremendously, as growing demand for resources drove China into relatively unexplored frontiers. Design/methodology/approach The Index measures the relative exposure of Latin American exporters to shifts in demand from China and is scaled from 0 to 1 (the higher the score, the more exposed an exporter is to disruptions of trade with China). The authors undertook the analysis using six-digit trade figures from the United Nations COMTRADE database (Harmonized System 2007 nomenclature) to ensure granularity and consistency and contrasted their results across two points in time, 2008 and 2014. The analysis was very comprehensive, covering the products that accounted for 80 per cent or more of all exports to China in 2014, for all countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Findings According to our estimates, dependency on China increased overboard across Latin America for all countries and all sectors between 2008 and 2014. Absolute dependency levels were highest in Costa Rica, Colombia, Uruguay, Venezuela, Brazil, Panama, Peru, Chile, Guyana and Argentina. Of these, the largest exporters to China, namely, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Colombia and Venezuela, featured high dependencies concentrated around just four commodities: soy in the form of soybeans and soybean oil; crude oil; copper in the form of copper ore, copper cathodes and unrefined copper; and iron ore. These four commodities accounted for 80 per cent of the regions’ total exports to China. Originality/value This is one of few studies that look into Latin America’s commodity export dependency on China at such granular level.


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