Fiscal deficits raise debt concerns in Latin America

Subject The deteriorating fiscal position. Significance According to the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), government deficits in most South American countries and Mexico widened in 2015 for the third consecutive year, in a context of slower economic growth and lower commodity prices. Barring Brazil, the increase was generally small but government borrowing, rising for several years, is increasingly limiting administrations' room for fiscal manoeuvre. Impacts Government borrowing is rising -- as are borrowing costs. Declining revenues may force unpopular spending cuts, worsening growth prospects. Caribbean countries in particular face unsustainable debt-servicing burdens that leave little for social and investment spending.

Significance In December 2014 ECLAC had anticipated expansion in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) of 2.2% for 2015. It is now forecasting growth of only 0.5%, down from 1.1% in 2014 and 2.9% in 2013, principally due to the impact of lower commodity prices on South American economies and, particularly, Brazil. Impacts Due largely to weaker exports, LAC's current account deficit is forecast to widen from 2.7% of GDP in 2014 to 3.0% this year. Growth is forecast to drop this year in seven of the ten main South American countries. In LAC, investment is an unusually important determinant not only of growth but also the size of its swings.


Subject The outlook for inward FDI. Significance A drop in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2014 marked a change of trend, according to a report released on May 27 by the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). The decline, attributed principally to lower commodity prices, was the first since 2009 and is likely to persist this year. Impacts At 2.6% of GDP, inbound FDI in 2014 was its lowest since 2009 and will remain slightly below its long-term average this year. Lower commodity prices reduced average returns on FDI to around 5% in 2014, down from over 9% in 2006-08; no rapid upturn is likely. Most investment abroad by LAC companies is within the region and, in 2015, will continue to be constrained by its sluggish growth.


Subject The outlook for unemployment in Latin America. Significance Unemployment in the region will rise this year for the first time since 2009, according to an October report by the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO). There are also signs of deterioration in job quality and that households are beginning to feel the pinch of slower GDP growth. Impacts In Brazil, the number of wage earners fell in absolute terms in the first half of 2015, a trend that is accelerating. In a typical feature of economic slowdowns, the number of women seeking jobs will continue to increase sharply. An already large productivity gap between micro and larger businesses is likely to widen.


Subject Social and economic inequality. Significance After its progress in reducing poverty, highlighted by a recent report of the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Chile faces the complex and socially divisive challenge of tackling its deep-rooted economic and social inequalities. Impacts The key problem in addressing poverty will be its concentration in specific groups of the population. Some of the government’s planned reforms, such as pension reform, would help to improve income distribution. The outcome of the government’s Country Undertaking initiative will depend on its ability to implement the resulting ideas.


Significance However, according to the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the coronavirus pandemic may undo more than a decade’s progress on labour participation, with a disproportionate effect on poorer women. Impacts Even pre-pandemic, one in four women compared with one in ten men lacked an income of their own; this will worsen. The number of women below the poverty line increased by almost one-fifth in 2020, which will affect families and children in particular. Some LAC countries are approaching gender parity in political institutions such as parliaments.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 50-63
Author(s):  
S. A. Chirkin

The article examines the flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean (LACB) for the period from 2010 to 2020. The sources of capital inflows, their structural components, as well as the distribution of attracted investments by sectors of the recipient countries ' economies are analyzed. Quantitative indicators of FDI inflows and outflows for individual countries and for the region as a whole are presented, highlighting general trends. The trend of a decrease in the volume of attracted FDI in the LACB is emphasized. It is concluded that the decrease in foreign direct investment in South American countries confirms the direct dependence of FDI inflows on macroeconomic conditions and fluctuations in world commodity prices. Changes are noted in the approaches of multinational corporations to invest capital abroad in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in favor of their local or cross-border use. The assessment of the actions of the authorities of the states of the region to attract foreign investment is given. The article examines the situation in the field of unresolved investment disputes involving the countries of the region and its impact on investment attractiveness. The role of Chinese FDI in the region, including its effectiveness in political terms, is considered separately.


Subject Internet penetration in Latin America. Significance The number of households connected to the internet in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has more than doubled over the past five years while the cost of access has dropped sharply, according to a report released by the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on September 12. However, connection speeds remain low by international standards and there are wide geographic and socioeconomic differences in access. Impacts Government efforts will be required to narrow income-related gaps in internet access, particularly in poorer countries. A key challenge for LAC is to raise mobile internet speeds to levels that permit greater use of services and applications. The Brazilian economy's contraction is likely to slow the growth of e-commerce in this key market.


Subject Poverty and income inequality. Significance On January 26, the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) released its latest annual report on poverty and income distribution. In a mixed picture marked by important differences between countries, it found that progress in reducing total poverty has stalled, and extreme poverty has increased slightly. However, income inequality appears to be continuing to diminish, although more slowly than before the 2008-09 crisis. Impacts Since 2011, government social spending again appears to have become pro-cyclical, hampering progress on poverty. The gender gap remains the largest stumbling block to reducing poverty and inequality. In the poorest countries, there are not only more poor people but they also suffer more types of deprivation.


Subject Declining regional growth projections. Significance According to a report issued on December 17 by the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the region's GDP contracted by 0.4% this year, slowing for a fifth consecutive year, and will grow by a mere 0.2% in 2016. Impacts Brazil's forecast 2.0% contraction next year partly reflects, and will contribute to, the country's political crisis. ECLAC's 0.8% growth forecast for Argentina depends on the new government's success in reactivating investment. If private consumption and investment continue to contract, the region's labour markets will weaken again next year.


2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 145-164
Author(s):  
Crespo Maria Victoria ◽  

This article offers a review and appraisal of the concept of crisis in the context of the remarkable trajectory and works of argentine economist Raul Prebisch. It argues that the crisis of the 1930s is the foundation of Prebisch’s theoretical proposal on dependency and development in Lat-in America. The crisis of 1929-1930 was the turning point that encour-aged him to revise and reinvent neoclassical economic theory, promote industrialization and import substitution, and, more importantly, to deeply restructure the role of the State in the region. The crisis leads to decision and action, and it implies and orientation towards the future, a new “horizon of expectations.” This horizon throughout the most part of the twentieth century in Latin America was development. The article also puts forward an interpretation of his program at the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC/CEPAL), also triggered by the crisis and oriented to the formulation of policies meant to overcome the crisis. Finally, the article shows how through his interactions with CEPAL sociologists, in particular José Medina Echavarría, Prebisch proposes a redefinition of his concept of crisis, shifting from an economic and junctural concept to a structural one: the crisis of peripheral capitalism


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