Measuring Latin America’s export dependency on China

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 213-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Casanova ◽  
Le Xia ◽  
Romina Ferreira

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to deploy an export dependency index to identify the sectors and countries in Latin America which are most exposed to fluctuations in Chinese demand. Bilateral trade between China and Latin America has grown very quickly in the past decade. As a consequence, economic relationships with Latin America intensified tremendously, as growing demand for resources drove China into relatively unexplored frontiers. Design/methodology/approach The Index measures the relative exposure of Latin American exporters to shifts in demand from China and is scaled from 0 to 1 (the higher the score, the more exposed an exporter is to disruptions of trade with China). The authors undertook the analysis using six-digit trade figures from the United Nations COMTRADE database (Harmonized System 2007 nomenclature) to ensure granularity and consistency and contrasted their results across two points in time, 2008 and 2014. The analysis was very comprehensive, covering the products that accounted for 80 per cent or more of all exports to China in 2014, for all countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Findings According to our estimates, dependency on China increased overboard across Latin America for all countries and all sectors between 2008 and 2014. Absolute dependency levels were highest in Costa Rica, Colombia, Uruguay, Venezuela, Brazil, Panama, Peru, Chile, Guyana and Argentina. Of these, the largest exporters to China, namely, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Colombia and Venezuela, featured high dependencies concentrated around just four commodities: soy in the form of soybeans and soybean oil; crude oil; copper in the form of copper ore, copper cathodes and unrefined copper; and iron ore. These four commodities accounted for 80 per cent of the regions’ total exports to China. Originality/value This is one of few studies that look into Latin America’s commodity export dependency on China at such granular level.

Subject The outlook for unemployment in Latin America. Significance Unemployment in the region will rise this year for the first time since 2009, according to an October report by the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO). There are also signs of deterioration in job quality and that households are beginning to feel the pinch of slower GDP growth. Impacts In Brazil, the number of wage earners fell in absolute terms in the first half of 2015, a trend that is accelerating. In a typical feature of economic slowdowns, the number of women seeking jobs will continue to increase sharply. An already large productivity gap between micro and larger businesses is likely to widen.


Subject The expansion of low-cost airlines in Latin America. Significance In late October, the first tickets for flights with Wingo -- a new no-frills carrier running routes between Colombia, Central America and the Caribbean -- went on sale. The new Colombia-based company is competing directly against several traditional and budget airlines for a share of the growing market for domestic and international air travel within the region. Wingo's creation, together with that of Viva Air Peru in November, highlights the continued disruption to a sector long dominated by a small number of high-cost carriers. Impacts Greater availability of reasonably priced international flights will boost Latin American tourism to the Caribbean. Cheap air travel may also help expand and consolidate regional trade ties, reducing the cost of business trips. Increased flight frequency and passenger numbers will help regional airports which have often operated below capacity.


2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane Lucia Silva Santos ◽  
Andrea Valéria Steil ◽  
David Joaquin Delgado-Hernández

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to summarize the main methods and themes used on organizational learning (OL) and learning organization (LO) research in Latin American and the Caribbean. Design/methodology/approach A literature review was conducted by means of a broad and systematic strategy to locating, selecting and analyzing papers on OL/LO, written in different languages (English, Portuguese and Spanish). Systematic searches were carried out at the two databases (Web of Science’s Social Sciences Citation Index and Scopus), and 15 specific Latin American and Caribbean journals were identified as data sources for the review. A thematic analysis was carried out using NVivo and cluster analysis. Findings In all 79 papers published between 2000 and 2017 were included in the synthesis and results: 18 are theoretical papers and literature reviews and 61 are empirical papers (30 qualitative, 24 quantitative and 7 multiple methods). These empirical papers revealed the study of the OL/LO concepts in organizations located mainly in Brazil, Venezuela, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico and Costa Rica. Five topics represent the main themes addressed on OL/LO studies in Latin America and the Caribbean and are avenues for future research in the field: (i) knowledge and KM (i.e. knowledge management), (ii) culture and leadership, (iii) innovation and improvement, (iv) learning (for example, learning process, learning styles), and (v) entrepreneurship and sustainability. Originality/value This paper provides a summary of the research methods and themes used in the OL/LO field in Latin America and the Caribbean, suggesting insights for future research.


1973 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 285-308
Author(s):  
Harold Molineu

During the past twenty years, the United States has been involved in three cases of armed intervention in Latin America: Guatemala in 1954, Cuba in 1961, and the Dominican Republic in 1965. In addition, there was the naval blockade and possibility of intervention in Cuba in 1962 during the missile crisis. Each of these episodes occurred in the Caribbean region (defined as including those areas either in or adjacent to the Caribbean Sea). There were no similar armed interventions elsewhere in Latin America during this period, and in fact, all of the incidents of United States armed intervention in the Twentieth Century have taken place in the Caribbean area. Therefore, in its actions in Latin America, the United States appears to distinguish between the Caribbean area and the rest of the continent. The Caribbean is treated as a special region where military intervention is apparently more justifiable than elsewhere in Latin America. Only in the area outside the Caribbean has Washington found it possible to abide by its inter-American treaty commitments to nonintervention.


Author(s):  
David B. H. Denoon

This chapter lays out the basic themes of the book and examines the commercial and strategic interests of U.S. and China in Latin America. China has become the largest trading partner for more than half of the Latin American countries, while the U.S. has sought to be the preeminent power in Latin America and the Caribbean since 1823 and the announcement of Monroe Doctrine. China does not pose a direct military threat to the U.S. or its Latin interests, but it does represent serious competition in the economic and diplomatic arenas. In the past decade, a clear East-West split has developed among the Latin American states. Venezuela, Brazil, and Argentina became more nationalistic and anti-U.S., while Chile, Columbia, and Peru have tended to be more market-oriented and comfortable working with U.S. power. The U.S. currently benefits from disarray on the Left in Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela. Newly developed institutions, e.g., UNASUR, the New Development Bank, and TPP, may also change the U.S.’s and China’s influence in the region.


Subject Internet penetration in Latin America. Significance The number of households connected to the internet in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has more than doubled over the past five years while the cost of access has dropped sharply, according to a report released by the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on September 12. However, connection speeds remain low by international standards and there are wide geographic and socioeconomic differences in access. Impacts Government efforts will be required to narrow income-related gaps in internet access, particularly in poorer countries. A key challenge for LAC is to raise mobile internet speeds to levels that permit greater use of services and applications. The Brazilian economy's contraction is likely to slow the growth of e-commerce in this key market.


Significance Claver-Carone, a Cuban-American, could alter perceptions of the Bank’s traditional technical role in the region; his appointment is likely intended as a response to growing Chinese influence in Latin America. Impacts Washington aims to check the possibility of rising Chinese influence on the Bank’s activities, although Beijing remains a minor shareholder. Brazil’s support for Washington’s agenda risks roiling China, its main export market and investment source. The IDB will position itself as a major potential lender to Venezuela in the event of regime change there. The smaller economies of Central America and the Caribbean will remain particularly dependent on IDB lending.


Revista CS ◽  
2014 ◽  
pp. 19-46
Author(s):  
Benjamin Creutzfeldt

This paper examines five recently published books that deal with the issue of Chinese relations with the Americas between 2011 and 2014. The author shows that the books provide evidence of a steady China’s interest to Latin America and the Caribbean as well as a scale-up of diplomatic relationships and bilateral trade of commodities. At the same time, the ability of Latin American countries to provide an effective response to the Chinese attempts to use the bilateral arrangements in order to strengthen its participation in regional organizations is rather weak. This scenario allows a progressive and effective impact of China in the region to continue. The author argues that the way to better understand China’s relations with Latin America is via a multidisciplinary approach, which is not limited by the boundaries of one discipline or a research area only. Besides, it is important to take into account that -additionally to commerce and trade- China´s interaction within Latin America and the Caribbean also involves cultural, social, political, and global dimensions.


Subject Declining regional growth projections. Significance According to a report issued on December 17 by the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the region's GDP contracted by 0.4% this year, slowing for a fifth consecutive year, and will grow by a mere 0.2% in 2016. Impacts Brazil's forecast 2.0% contraction next year partly reflects, and will contribute to, the country's political crisis. ECLAC's 0.8% growth forecast for Argentina depends on the new government's success in reactivating investment. If private consumption and investment continue to contract, the region's labour markets will weaken again next year.


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