Pragmatic protectionism may persist in many economies

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Protection ◽  
Legislative Action ◽  
The Us ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
First Time

Subject Fears of a period of imminent 'deglobalisation' involving more protectionism and less integration. Significance The WTO forecast for world trade growth has fallen below GDP growth for the first time since the global financial crisis. Historical evidence suggests a clear link between trade liberalisation and higher GDP growth, raising fears that increased protectionism, sharpened by Brexit and the US presidential election campaign, will dampen global growth. Impacts The EU is likely to scale back the provisions of both CETA and TTIP, particularly on investment protection. Beyond the attention on Trump, the US landscape appears to have shifted more broadly towards deglobalisation. An increase in protectionist policies is likely to lead to more court challenges or legislative action to reverse them. Retaliation between countries may increase, particularly in countries that are likely to be most affected such as China and Mexico. Historically, protectionism has had a bigger impact than competitive devaluations; the trend poses a risk to world growth prospects.

New normal for trade will shape global economy

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Trade ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Growth Estimate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Communication Costs ◽  
Trade Growth ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
First Time

Subject The slowdown in global trade. Significance The WTO forecast for world trade has fallen below GDP growth for the first time since the global financial crisis. The forecast hinges on a substantial recovery in the second half of 2016 to meet its meagre trade growth estimate of 1.7% for 2016 as a whole. The first quarter of 2016 actually saw a decline (-1.1%) and the second quarter was barely positive (0.3%). Impacts Economies dependent on goods exports will remain constrained by the weakness in both volumes and prices. Liberalisation of non-tariff barriers may prove difficult politically, particularly health, environment and labour protections. Technology will continue to lower transportation and communication costs, supporting goods trade and facilitating stronger services trade.

Further evidence on idiosyncratic risk and REIT pricing: a cross-country analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-58
Author(s):  
Lin Mi ◽  
Karen Benson ◽  
Robert Faff
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Idiosyncratic Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Risk Variable ◽  
The Us ◽  
Country Analysis ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose The purpose of this study is to provide new cross-country evidence on the relation between real estate investment trust (REIT) returns and idiosyncratic risk for samples of listed and unlisted REITs in the US and Australia. Design/methodology/approach Five alternative models with exponential GARCH enhancements were employed, in a Fama-MacBeth (1973) setup. The authors assess the statistical significance of the idiosyncratic risk variable and interpret the outcomes. Findings The results show that listed REITs in the US and Australia demonstrate a positive idiosyncratic risk-return linkage over the long period of January 1980-November 2013 and April 1994-December 2012, respectively. A further examination by sub-period reveals that this positive relation is only evident in the new REIT era (January 1993-September 2001), absent in the vintage era (before December 1992) and maturity era (November 2001-August 2008). The unlisted REITs in both countries show no relation with idiosyncratic risk. Further, the global financial crisis has no effect on the relation between idiosyncratic risk and REIT returns. Originality/value A key motivation of this paper stems from the mixed findings documented in the literature. Also very little research has been done on the idiosyncratic risk-REIT returns linkage in the Australian context. This study offers unique insights from comparisons: Australia vs the US; and listed vs unlisted REITs.

EU infrastructure plan could reinforce ECB policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Fund Raising ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Commission President ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
European Investment

Subject Outlook for infrastructure spending. Significance European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker proposed a 315 billion euro (340 billion dollar) infrastructure initiative to revive the EU economy, expected to reinforce ongoing monetary policy efforts to boost growth. Fund raising is progressing through the European Investment Bank (EIB). The programme can benefit both short-term and long-term growth prospects, while its actual impact will depend on the projects implemented, as politically motivated choices can delay, distort and depress the benefits. This plan comes late, six years after the global financial crisis; one of its priorities is generating rapid results to boost the economic recovery. Impacts To have a net positive impact, any infrastructure proposal would have to avoid drawing funds away from existing investment plans. The plan could help reducing disparities between labour markets in different euro-area countries. Persistently high euro-area unemployment will need a domestic demand revival to boost sentiment, growth and job creation.

Establishing finance-growth linkage for India: a financial conditions index (FCI) approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1032-1059 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.K. Giri ◽  
Deven Bansod
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Multiple Markets ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose The global financial crisis of 2008 emphasized the need for monetary policy authorities to have a more comprehensive view of the conditions prevailing in the economy before deciding their policy stance. The purpose of this paper is to outline the construction of a financial conditions index (FCI) and investigate the possible co-integrating relationship between the economic growth and FCI. Design/methodology/approach The study employs the PCA methodology, with appropriate augmentations to handle the unbalanced panel data-sets and constructs a FCI for India. It tests the growth-predicting power of FCI by applying the auto regressive distributed lags approach to co-integration and verifies if the FCI is co-integrated with real GDP growth. It also discusses construction of a financial development index (FDI) which tracks the financial markets through M3, market capitalization and credit amount to residents. Findings The constructed FCI has a quarterly frequency and is available starting 1998q2. The long-run coefficient of FCI while predicting the real GDP growth is significant at 10 percent. The results confirm that a more-broader index FCI outperforms a narrower index FDI in growth prediction. Research limitations/implications By showing that FCI is a better growth predictor than FDI, the study establishes the importance of including the foreign exchange markets, bond markets and stock markets while summarizing the conditions in the economy. The authors hope that the FCI would be helpful to the monetary authorities in their policy decisions. Originality/value The paper adds to the few existing studies studies dealing with FCI for Indian economy and constructs a more comprehensive index which tracks multiple markets simultaneously. It also fills the gap in literature by evaluating the correlating relationship between FCI and economic growth.

Determinants of the global financial crisis recovery: an empirical assessment

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minh Quang Dao
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Depth ◽  
Crisis Recovery ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the effect of the factors contributing to the recovery from this crisis in terms of national GDP growth among the G7, Asian7, and Latin American7 countries. Design/methodology/approach The author uses a multivariate regression analysis of the determinants of the global financial crisis recovery. Findings Based on data from 21 developed and developing emerging market economies the author found that good macroeconomic fundamentals together with more open financial policy, financial liberalization, financial depth, domestic performance, and favored global conditions do linearly influence national GDP growth. Over 85 percent of cross-country variations in GDP growth during the recovery phase of the global financial crisis can be explained by its linear dependency on pre-crisis national GDP growth, financial liberalization, financial depth, domestic performance, as well as interaction terms between various explanatory variables. Cross-country differences in national GDP growth also linearly depend on macroprudence and on favorable global conditions. Originality/value Results of such empirical examination may enable governments in developing countries devise resilience strategies that may serve as powerful tools for dealing with future global financial crises.

The next industrial revolution

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (6) ◽  
pp. 29-31
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
The Us ◽  
Modern Business ◽  
Pertinent Information ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Political Economic

Purpose Reviews the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoints practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies. Design/methodology/approach This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context. Findings The global health crisis that ensued from the first transmissions in China in late 2019 of the Coronavirus provided a shockwave that was perhaps unprecedented in modern business history. Like the Great Depression in the US in the 1920s and 1930s and the global financial crisis of 2008, the ensuing events highlighted a number of underlying issues across many sectors and economies. In the immediate aftermath of the crisis, there was no shortage of political, economic, social and environmental reparations to be made to ensure that such widespread devastation could not be repeated. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

Prospects for emerging economies in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
Us Presidential Election

Subject Prospects for emerging economies in 2017. Significance Emerging market (EM) GDP growth of 4.5% is expected in 2017, up from just shy of 4.0% in 2015-16. The outlook was clouded by weak global trade, along with high debts, sluggish productivity and policy limitations even before the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election. The unknown policies of the new administration add uncertainty. However, macroeconomic fundamentals have improved, and US import demand has become less important for EM exporters.

Learning model behavior

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 49-51
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Business ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
National Economies ◽  
Political Economic

Purpose The worldwide health epidemic that ensued from the first transmissions of Coronavirus in China in the latter part of 2019 provided an unprecedented shockwave through global business. Similar to the Great Depression in the US in the 1920s and 1930s and the global financial crisis of 2008, the following events placed a spotlight on a number of fundamental issues in many industrial sectors and national economies. In the aftermath of the crisis, there would be no shortage of political, economic, social and environmental changes to be made to ensure such widespread devastation could not be repeated. Design/methodology/approach This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds his/her own impartial comments and places the articles in context. Findings The worldwide health epidemic that ensued from the first transmissions of Coronavirus in China in the latter part of 2019 provided an unprecedented shockwave through global business. Similar to the Great Depression in the US in the 1920s and 1930s and the global financial crisis of 2008, the following events placed a spotlight on a number of fundamental issues in many industrial sectors and national economies. In the aftermath of the crisis, there would be no shortage of political, economic, social and environmental changes to be made to ensure such widespread devastation could not be repeated. Practical implications This paper provides strategic insights and practical thinking that have influenced some of the world’s leading organizations. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

Oil volatility index and Chinese stock markets during financial crisis: a time-varying perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Panayiotis Tzeremes
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Index ◽  
The Us ◽  
Three Stages ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose This study aims to examine the interconnection among the oil volatility index (OVX) and the Chinese stock markets (CSM) during the financial crisis over the period June 1, 2007 to June 26, 2012. Design/methodology/approach Applying the time-varying Granger causality test, this paper conducts an exhaustive analysis of the OVX and the CSMs during the financial crisis. In particular, the financial crisis is classified in three stages, namely, the US subprime crisis, the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis. Findings Briefly, the findings indicate almost a neutral relationship between the OVX and the CSMs during the entire financial crisis, the US subprime crisis and the global financial crisis. Finally, this paper has found a positive relationship between the OVX and the CSMs during the sovereign debt crisis. Practical implications This outcome clearly suggests that Chinese investors have to disregard uncertain information. In addition, policymakers can ameliorate the willingness of market investors in the CSM and further deepen the market-oriented reform of China’s domestic oil prices. Originality/value The innovative combination of these two strands, the OVX and the three stages of the financial crisis, is empirically examined in the study and this paper finds a non-linear linkage between the OVX and CSMs.

Investors will step up corporate governance monitoring

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Socially Responsible ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Responsible Investment ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Ceo Pay ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
First Time

Subject Corporate governance. Significance Policymakers in Europe are, for the first time, pressing institutional investors to police the capital market by exercising tools of stewardship. US policy has taken similar steps, and this top-down pressure is finding echoes at the grassroots level. Worldwide targets include the kind of systemic risk that sparked the global financial crisis and a host of socially unwelcome corporate traits including unethical behaviour, richly rewarding failing CEOs, lack of diversity on boards and passivity in the face of climate change threats. Impacts Some boards are already responding to the scale of investor transformation, but for many it may take a shareholder crisis to bring action. The responsible investment trend has momentum -- firm transparency and diversity will rise; climate risks and excessive CEO pay will fall. Boding well for the sector, surveys show socially responsible investment entices women and 'millennials' more than older savers.

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