Price Bubbles in the Real Estate Markets - Analysis and Prediction

The article concerns the issue of price bubbles on the markets, with particular emphasis on the specificity of the real estate market. Up till now, more than a decade after the subprime crisis, there is no accurate enough method to predict price movements, their culmination and, eventually, the burst of price and speculative bubbles on the markets. Hence, the main goal of the article is to present the possibility of early detection of price bubbles and their consequences from the point of view of the surveyed managers. The following research hypothesis was verified: price bubbles on the real estate market cannot be excluded, therefore constant monitoring and predictive analytics of this market are needed. In addition to standard research methods (desk research or statistical analysis), the authors conducted their own survey on a group of randomly selected managers from Portugal and Poland in the context of their attitude to crises and price bubbles. The obtained results allowed us to conclude that managers in both analysed countries are different relating the effects of price bubbles to the activities of their own companies but are similar (about 40% of respondents) expecting quick detection and deactivation of emerging bubbles by the government or by central bank. Nearly 40% of Polish and Portuguese managers claimed that the consequences of crises must include an increased responsibility of managers for their decisions, especially those leading to failures.

Sustainability of cryptocurrency in blockchain technology for business development in African Countries

The aim of the paper is to analyze the sustainability of cryptocurrency in blockchain technology in African countries for securing financial business transactions. Following the subprime crisis that shook the world economy, a new perception of money has emerged. It is a fully digital currency whose transactions are made through a distributed network. This algorithm-encrypted currency, reputed to be tamper-proof, transparent and inclusive, relies on a distributed network called the Blockchain. By comparison with traditional registers in which operations are paginated and successively recorded, transactions in blockchain technology are aggregated within the chain of blocks. It is decentralized since it is replicated on several geographic sites around the world. It enables peer-to-peer transactions, automated in real-time, reliable, secure, without intermediaries and non-repudiable. To ensure maximum security during financial transactions, blockchain miners use cryptography. This distributed system is, therefore, a major technological innovation capable of securing the financial infrastructure and mitigating failures by reducing operational risks. According to our analysis based on the Merkle tree model and blockchain energy consumption, the sustainability of cryptocurrency is a major issue for developing countries. Especially in Africa, its practicality poses a number of constraints.

Seeing Covid-19 Through a Subprime Crisis lens: How Structural and Institutional Racism Have Shaped 21st-Century Crises in the U.K. and the U.S.

This special issue aims to use historical examples to gain insight into the socio-economic impact of, and possibilities of recovery from, the Covid-19 pandemic for Black communities. We approach this question by comparing the impact of the pandemic on Black Britons in the United Kingdom with that of the 2008 subprime crisis on Black Americans. We find that, in both cases, a pattern of racially asymmetric losses and race-neutral policy responses that have systematically ignored the disparate losses borne by Black and racial/ethnic minority communities. Both patterns are manifestations of these countries’ institutional racism. Relying on insights from stratification economics and using the concept of “racial formation” introduced by Harold Baron in 1985, we show how these nations’ historical relationships to slavery and imperialism have led to different structures of racial control. Our review of U.K. government policy includes a critique of the March 2021 report of the U.K. Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities.

A Transmission of Beta Herding during Subprime Crisis in Taiwan’s Market: DCC-MIDAS Approach

The aim of this study is to investigate the herding of beta transmission between return and volatility. We have used the dynamic conditional correlation model with the mixed-data sampling (DCC-MIDAS) model for the analysis. The evidence demonstrates that herding is a key transmitter in Taiwan’s stock market. The significant estimation of DCC-MIDAS explains that the herding phenomenon is highly dynamic and time-varying in herding behavior. By means of time-varying beta of herding based on our rolling forecasting method and robustness check of the Markov-switching regression approach using four types of portfolios, the evidence indicates that there are conditional correlations between betas and herding. In addition, it also reveals that herding forms in Taiwan’s markets during the subprime crisis period.

Investor sentiment and liquidity in emerging stock markets

PurposeBehavioral finance and market microstructure studies suggest that the investor sentiment and liquidity are related. This paper aims to examine the aggregate sentiment–liquidity relationship in emerging markets (EMs) for both the sample period and crisis period. Then, it verifies this relationship, using the asymmetric sentiment.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses a sample consisting of stocks listed on the SSE Shanghai composite index (348 stocks), the JKSE (118 stocks), the IPC (14 stocks), the RTS (12 stocks), the WSE (106 stocks) and FTSE/JSE Africa (76 stocks). This is for the period ranging from February, 2002 until March, 2021 (230 monthly observations). We use the panel data and apply generalized method-of-moments (GMM) of dynamic panel estimators.FindingsThe empirical analysis shows the following results: first, it demonstrates a significant relationship between the aggregate investor sentiment and the stock market liquidity for the sample period and crisis one. Second, referring to the asymmetric sentiment, we have empirically given proof that the market is significantly more liquid in times of the optimistic sentiment than it is in times of the pessimistic sentiment. Third, using panel causality tests, we document a unidirectional causality between the investor sentiment and liquidity in a direct manner through the noise traders and the irrational market makers and also a bidirectional causality in an indirect channel.Practical implicationsThe results reported in this paper have implications for regulators and investors in EMs. Firstly, the study informs the regulators that the increases and decreases in the stock market liquidity are related to the investor sentiment, not financial shocks. We empirically evince that the traded value is higher in the crisis. Secondly, we inform insider traders and rational market makers that the persistence of increases in the trading activity in both quiet and turbulent times is associated with investor participants such as noise traders and irrational market makers.Originality/valueThe originality of this work lies in employing the asymmetric sentiment (optimistic/pessimistic) in order to denote the sentiment–liquidity relationship in EMs for the sample period and the 2007–2008 subprime crisis.

Policy turmoil in China: a barrier for FDI flows?

PurposeThis research examines the dynamic interrelationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and the inflows of foreign direct investment (IFDI) in China.Design/methodology/approachThis research used the Granger causality and sub-sample time-varying rolling window causality method.FindingsThe empirical results reveal that EPU tends to have a negative impact on the IFDI in most periods that have been taken into consideration. However, there has been a positive relationship observed between the periods of the US subprime crisis. That is to say that the uncertainty of the Chinese economic policy does not always impede the IFDI. These results are supported by the general equilibrium model, which states that there are certain influences that come into play when moving from EPU to IFDI. On the other hand, the IFDI exert a positive influence on EPU during times of economic crisis and trade war, which indicates that the uncertainty in the economy may increase due to the sudden soar of foreign investment.Originality/valueDuring tense global trade situations and complicated economic scenarios, the results suggest the Chinese government should dedicate itself to expanding its initiatives to open up and improve the domestic business environment in order to increase the foreign investors' confidence and prevent the decline in the IFDI. In addition to this, it also suggests that multinational companies pay attention to the policy environment of the host country, especially when they decide to invest there.

Study on the Possibility of Subprime Crisis or Other Forms of Financial Crisis in China

It has been 13 years since the subprime crisis happen in the USA. The America has regained its vitality it had lost from the crisis, but in China a new hyperpower, the real estate section seems to stage the same history, rising price and house buying frenzy, as America did. It is worth thinking about that whether the next subprime crisis or a similar financial crisis happen in China.

Subprime Crisis – A Corporate Acquisition Opportunity?

Corporate acquisition can be considered as one of the best processes of corporate restructuring. This study is focused to evaluate the post-acquisition operating performance of listed Indian companies (acquirers) which have made acquisitions during subprime crisis period i.e. from FY 2007-08 to FY 2009-10. Paired sample t-test has been used on four operating performance indicators i.e. Return on Equity(ROE), Return on Assets (ROA), Operating Profit margin (OPM) and Operating Cash flow to Net Sales ratio (OCF/Net Sales) to check whether operating performance of acquirers has significantly improved post-acquisition. This study has revealed that there is no significant improvement in firms’ operating performance based on financial parameters i.e. Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Assets (ROA) and Operating Profit Margin (OPM), post corporate acquisitions made during subprime crisis period. The study finds that there was negative impact based on these parameters. Though Operating Cash Flow to Net Sales ratio has improved significantly for the companies which have made acquisition in FY 2007-08 and FY 2008-09 but similar findings could not be achieved for FY 2009-10. This study will find its significance in present scenario wherein corporate acquisitions are seen as the fastest way to achieve growth. Corporate world may derive its growth strategy from this study.

The 1987 Stock Exchange Crash in Historical Perspective

This chapter aims to explore the different facets of the collective memory of the 1987 Crash in the US, which represented an unprecedented collapse of prices on the global stock markets. The 22.3% fall of the Dow Jones on Black Monday (19 October 1987) represents the biggest single-day stock market collapse in history—even greater than that of 24 October 1929. The crash spread to other major financial markets over the world, but was quickly resolved thanks to the central banks’ intervention on the capital markets. In the context of Reaganomics, the crash can be seen as the first financial crisis of the second globalization wave in the strictest sense of the term ‘financial’, without taking into consideration the banking crises of the 1970s and the debt crisis in the early 1980s. However, unlike other financial crises, memories of this market break remained either vague or inexistent in public opinion, or fragmented and partial for economists and historians—until the subprime crisis. Since then, the 1987 warning and the potential dangers of uncontrolled markets were brought to light. The final lesson to be learned from this example of an evolving memory is about using the past.