Turkey looks to ride out financial assets volatility

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Government Bond Markets ◽  
Global Government

Significance The Central Bank is expected to keep its main interest rates on hold, despite the lira continuing to fall sharply against the dollar and headline and core inflation rates that are more than 2 percentage points above the TCMB's 5% target. The toxic combination of an escalation in the crackdown following the botched military coup in July and, crucially, a sharp deterioration in investor sentiment towards emerging markets (EMs) since Donald Trump's election as US president have put Turkish assets under renewed strain. Impacts EMs are currently on the sharp end of a fierce sell-off in global government bond markets. Investors are repositioning their portfolios in anticipation of more aggressive hikes in interest rates during a Trump presidency. The sell-off comes amid improving EM fundamentals, unlike the 'taper tantrum' after the Fed unexpectedly shrank asset purchases in 2013. Turkey's creditworthiness will continue to suffer after the botched military coup. Limiting the scope for a full-blown financial crisis is its banking sector, among the emerging world's best capitalised and most resilient.

ECB's QE will buoy EM bond markets

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Current

Subject Opposite forces are shaping investor sentiment towards EM assets. Significance Investor sentiment towards emerging market (EM) assets is being shaped by the conflicting forces of a strong dollar and the launch of a sovereign quantitative easing (QE) programme by the ECB. While the latter is likely to encourage investment into higher-yielding assets, such as EM debt, the former will keep the currencies of developing economies under strain, particularly those most sensitive to a rise in US interest rates due to heavier reliance on capital inflows to finance large current account deficits, such as Turkey and South Africa. Impacts EM bonds will benefit from ECB-related inflows, while the strength of the dollar will keep local currencies under strain. Higher-yielding EMs will benefit the most from the ECB's bond-buying scheme since they provide the greatest scope for 'carry trades'. The collapse in oil prices is forcing EM central banks to turn increasingly dovish, putting further strain on local currencies.

Another rating upgrade is likely for Hungary soon

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Grade

Significance Hungary thereby regains investment-grade status, albeit at the lowest level, from being downgraded to 'junk' because of doubts about the government's policies and the high public debt burden. Hungary's improving creditworthiness, underpinned by its current account surplus and deleveraging in the banking sector, contrasts with the increasing strain on Poland's credit rating. Political risk has become a major driver of investor sentiment towards emerging markets. Impacts Emerging market assets have become more vulnerable as investors reprice US monetary policy. Futures markets are now assigning a 51% probability to another rise in US interest rates at or before the Federal Reserve's July meeting. Central Europe's government bond markets are being supported by the persistently dovish monetary policy stance of its central banks. This contrasts with Latin America, where inflationary pressures are forcing many central banks to raise rates. Brazil, Turkey, Poland and the Philippines are among several countries where political uncertainty is a key determinant of asset prices.

Deflation trend in Central Europe will keep rates low

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Bond Markets ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Very High

Significance The pick-up in growth contrasts markedly with the sharp falls in inflation across Central Europe (CE). With CE government bond markets under renewed pressure, monetary policy is likely to remain extremely loose as inflation struggles to rise above zero. Impacts CE is enjoying 'Goldilocks' economic conditions, with deflation requiring extremely loose monetary policy amid brisk growth. The ECB's aggressive bond-buying programme will keep yields anchored at extremely low levels, benefiting CE's local debt markets. While investor sentiment is favourable, very high foreign participation in Polish and Hungarian domestic bond markets is causing concern.

Weak lira will reflect Turkish election fears

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
The Us ◽  
Government Bond Markets ◽  
High Share ◽  
China’S Economy

Significance Increased uncertainty in financial markets, following the US Federal Reserve's decision in September to delay tightening monetary policy because of concerns about China's economy, is testing the resilience of Emerging Europe's local government bond markets. Poland and Hungary are vulnerable given the very high share of foreign holdings, but sentiment is bleakest towards Turkish assets, with the lira falling by 10% against the dollar since mid-August. Impacts Some EM bond markets have escaped dramatic falls in equities and currencies, partly due to local institutional investors' strong support. CE economies are better placed to cope with a China- and commodities-induced deterioration in sentiment. This is because of Central Europe's negligible linkages with China and its status as a net oil importer. The 22% decline in oil prices since early July is putting further downward pressure on already subdued CE inflation rates. This will keep monetary policy loose and help underpin growth.

Emerging Europe will weather storm from China

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Bond Funds ◽  
Primary Determinant

Significance The currency and debt markets of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) are proving resilient to fallout from the turmoil in China's financial markets, now the primary determinant of investor sentiment towards developing economies. Negligible trade linkages with China and liquidity support from the ECB are helping underpin favourable sentiment towards the region. Impacts EM equity and bond funds will continue to suffer outflows, following record bond redemptions in 2015, which continued into early January. The dramatic slide in oil prices is putting further downward pressure on CE inflation rates; there is outright deflation in Poland. Hungary is mulling further cuts in interest rates. Despite Turkey's favourable status as a major oil importer, its currency has plunged by 31% against the dollar over the past year. For CE, the lower the oil price, the greater the likelihood of further ECB stimulus, buoying local bonds and currencies further.

Testing fisher effect for the USA: application of nonlinear ARDL model

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-304
Author(s):  
Serdar Ongan ◽  
Ismet Gocer
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Linear Representation ◽  
Fisher Equation ◽  
Fisher Effect ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl Model ◽  
The Usa

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the presence of the Fisher effect for the USA from a new methodological perspective differing it from all previous studies using the common linear representation of the Fisher equation. Design/methodology/approach The nonlinear ARDL model, recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied for the 10-year US Government bond rates over the period of 1985M1-2017M10. Findings The empirical findings indicate that the US Federal Reserve (FED) is a more predominant arbiter in the determination of interest rates during periods of declining inflation rates than periods of rising inflation rates. This finding may allow the FED to apply more proactive and prudent monetary policy. Additionally, this study newly describes and introduces a different version of the partial Fisher effect and extends the Fisher equation to some degree in terms of the partial Fisher effect. Originality/value To the best the authors’ knowledge, this method is applied for the first time in testing the Fisher effect for the USA.

Ultra-loose monetary policy will soon run its course

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Target Range ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds

Significance Expectations that the Fed will refrain from hiking its benchmark rates from its target range of 0.25-0.5% and that the Japanese central bank will provide further stimulus are suppressing volatility in financial markets and fuelling demand for risk assets. However, evidence that "overburdened" monetary policy is losing its efficacy triggered a sell-off in bonds and equities on September 9, increasing the scope for sharper price falls as investors worry that central banks have run out of ammunition. Impacts Services expanded in August at their slowest pace since 2010, making it less likely that the Fed will raise interest rates this month. EM bond and equity mutual funds have enjoyed a surge in inflows since the Brexit vote as yield-hungry investors pour money into risk assets Oil, a key determinant of investor sentiment, will stay below 50 dollars/barrel unless major producers agree measures to stabilise prices.

US Fed will struggle to raise rates much in 2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Face ◽  
Lift Off ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject US monetary policy outlook for 2016 and its global impact. Significance There is a large discrepancy between the US Federal Reserve (Fed)'s estimates for interest rates at end-2016 and the expectations of bond investors. The latter are anticipating less tightening than the 100-basis-point (bp) rise in the Federal Funds rate the Fed has pencilled in for this year. Despite a successful rates 'lift-off' on December 16, the Fed faces many challenges in raising rates in the face of mounting stress in credit markets, disinflationary pressures from the plunge in commodity prices and a contraction manufacturing. Impacts While the Fed will tighten policy, other central banks, including the ECB, will provide further stimulus, accentuating policy divergence. Investors will price in a more hawkish Fed if US inflation accelerates faster than expected, potentially leading to a sell-off. Concerns about China's economy and the commodity prices slump will also shape investor sentiment.

Polish banking scandal may lead to more consolidation

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Financial Supervision ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Loan Growth

Significance Allegations of bribery and corruption against the former chairman of Poland’s Financial Supervision Authority (KNF), the financial sector regulator, have stoked both political and regulatory tensions. Impacts The banking sector is resilient to domestic and external shocks, but a slowdown in GDP could dampen household loan growth next year. Further sector consolidation is likely and would further underline the dominance of large, state-backed financial institutions. Interest rates are unlikely to be raised before end-2019 at the earliest, providing some support to household consumption in the near term.

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