ardl model
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2022 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 102543
Shabir Mohsin Hashmi ◽  
Bisharat Hussain Chang ◽  
Liangfang Huang ◽  
Emmanuel Uche

Leera Kpagih ◽  

No country is an island. The globalization phenomenon is making all countries to be interdependent. The external sector environment has become critical for the success of every country and internal balance. Thus, it has become important to examine how much the externa sector environment impact on the performance of the domestic economy. The present study, therefore, examined the influence of Nigerian external sector environment on the performance of the Nigerian manufacturing sector between 1981 and 2019. The study adopted exp-post research design approach and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model estimation techniques. The empirical model consists of the Nigerian manufacturing sector output index as the dependent variable and exchange rate, trade openness, and foreign direct investment as independent variables and external sector environment variables. Test of unit root results indicated that the variables have mix order of integration, while the co integration analysis results indicated that the variables in the model have stable long run relationship. Estimate of the ARDL model reveals that in the short run exchange rate variations have negative, but significant effect on manufacturing sector performance, while trade openness, and FDI have positive but insignificant influence on the manufacturing sector performance in the short run. In the long run, exchange rate level and FDI inflows have positive and significant effect on the manufacturing sector performance, while trade openness has negative and significant effect on the Nigerian manufacturing sector performance. The study therefore conclude that the Nigerian external sector Environment has significant influence on the performance of the Nigerian manufacturing sector.

Webology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 475-486
Niam A. Fawaz ◽  
Saad A. Hamaad

The exchange rate tool is one of the most important macroeconomic tools that affect many variables, including the general level of prices, investment, import and export. In the case of a deteriorating economy such as the Iraqi economy, which suffers from a high import rate of final goods and intermediate goods, which are considered inputs to production processes, means exit Foreign exchange to abroad that affects the position of the balance of payments and its imbalance. It is very abnormal for countries to reduce the value of their currency exchange for financing reasons related to financing their public budget deficit without taking into account macroeconomic variables. All of these matters reflect a clear confusion of the fiscal and the monetary policies. The results of the current study by using the ARDL model have proven the direct impact of currency devaluation on inflation.

Webology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 1186-1198
Dr. Alyaa Hussain Khalaf ◽  
Ali Talib Hussain ◽  
Dr. Ammar Naeem Zghair

The research aims to measure and analyze the relationship between government spending and economic diversification in Iraq for the period (2004-2019), using the ARDL model. The research concluded that there is a long-term positive equilibrium relationship between investment spending and economic diversification in Iraq. When investment spending increases by (1%), this will lead to an increase in economic diversification by (0.23%), assuming that operating spending is stable, and the opposite happens in the case of decline. In addition to the existence of a long-term inverse equilibrium relationship between operating spending and economic diversification in Iraq, as an increase in operating spending by (1%) will lead to a decrease in economic diversification by (0.73%), assuming the stability of investment spending, and the opposite will happen in the event of decline.

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2079-2093
Md. Mamun Miah ◽  
Tahmina Akter Ratna ◽  
Shapan Chandra Majumder

Purpose of the study: Main purpose of the paper is to find out the impact of corruption on the economic growth of Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. At the same time, our other objectives are to find the long and short-run effects of corruption on growth in these countries. Methodology: For conducting the study, we have taken the data from Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. For this study necessary secondary data have been collected from 1990 to 2016 based on countries like Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Data for economic growth (dependent) and trade (independent) are collected from World Development Bank and data for corruption are taken from International Country Risk published by the PRS Group. The study has used ECM ARDL Model and the Fixed Effect Model.  Findings: The result of the fixed effect model shows a 1percent increase in corruption decreases GDP by 0.07 units and shows a negative relationship with economic growth. Again if trade increases by 1 percent then growth will increase by 0.09 units on average and shows a positive relationship with economic growth. ECM ARDL Model shows the positive coefficient of corruption but not significant but trade has a long-run positive influence on economic growth. The error correction term indicating that the adjustment is corrected by 70% in these three countries. Contributions: This paper may be helpful for existing literature gap and also for further research. It will be helpful for policy makers to control corruption in three countries.

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 47
James Andilile ◽  
Saganga Mussa Kapaya

In Tanzania, reforms were mooted in the 1990s to solve two intertwined problems; the financing of investment and reducing the fiscal drain on the government to the sector. This study deploys the ARDL Model and paired-sample t-statistic tests, with profitability and liquidity data from 1989 to 2020 to examine the impact of the reforms on sectoral financial condition in Tanzania. The results suggest that both profitability and liquidity did not significantly improve after reforms. Apart from commercialization policy, other variables were not statistically significant with privatization and liberalization law exerting a negative pressure on liquidity. The findings, therefore, appear to contradict the theoretical view that the reforms improve the financial condition of both the sector and the governments. The outcome can be explained by unfinished reforms manifested by continued politicization of the sector hence underpricing and underinvestment. To ensure sectoral financial viability and sustainability we recommend that the reform policies such as commercialization, corporatization, and independent regulation should be prioritized. These findings will add value to policymakers in Tanzania and beyond which are reforming their power sectors by recognizing that efficient pricing and investment are key for a viable and sustainable financial condition of the sector.

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