Far right may gain political space in Brazil

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Military Regime ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Political Space ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Lgbt Rights ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Clout ◽  
The Military

Subject The rise of far-right support. Significance The far right is a relative newcomer to Brazilian mainstream politics but is becoming a rising force in polls, street protests and social media. Since 2014, as corruption allegations enveloped the country’s then-governing Workers’ Party (PT), small street marches have called for the reinstatement of the military regime that ruled between 1964 and 1985 and ultra-conservative lawmaker Jair Bolsonaro has risen from being an obscure figure to a contender for the 2018 presidential election. Impacts Bolsonaro’s evangelical support may reduce the same groups' backing of environmentalist Marina Silva. Large parties will make uneasy alliances with ultra-conservative factions, leading to rising activism by left-wing movements. Socially conservative parties may succeed in leveraging their political clout to push for policies against abortion and LGBT rights.

Spain’s Sanchez faces tough battle after Madrid loss

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Party Competition ◽  
Main Issue ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Decline ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance The result led Pablo Iglesias, the founder of Unidas Podemos (UP), which is part of Sanchez’s minority left-wing government, to resign from politics. It also reinforced the national decline of the centre-right Ciudadanos (Cs) party, on which Sanchez has sometimes relied for parliamentary support. Impacts A fresh independence push in Catalonia would boost the electoral prospects of the PP and the far-right Vox party across Spain. Whether to cooperate with Vox in government could become the main issue of division within the PP. The return to traditional two-party competition between the PP and PSOE would increase the prospect of more stable governments.

Alliances will shape Central African Republic election

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Central African Republic ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Weak State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Political Clout ◽  
Mass Displacement

Subject Political outlook for the Central African Republic. Significance The Constitutional Court yesterday ruled that the second-round presidential election -- scheduled for January 31 -- will go ahead. The court also annulled legislative polls held at the same time as the first round of the presidential election, citing numerous irregularities. The new leader will have greater political clout than the oft-criticised interim president, Catherine Samba-Panza, but faces difficulties healing sectarian rifts and rebuilding institutions following the two-year civil conflict. Impacts Re-running the legislative polls will prove costly, stretching already strained donor and government budgets. Exports of rough diamonds from CAR will continue to be banned by the Kimberley Process until governance standards improve. Mass displacement coupled with irregular weather patterns will disrupt the agricultural cycle, creating a large-scale food security crisis. IMF, United Nations and other agencies will help the incoming administration to draft a development programme, given weak state capacity.

Simultaneous elections will weaken Indonesia’s parties

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Economic Nationalism ◽  
Content Type

Significance The legislative poll will occur alongside the presidential one on April 17, 2019, and parties have been forced to commit already to a presidential candidate. Impacts President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo is likely to retain power next year. Both Jokowi and Prabowo Subianto will appeal to economic nationalism in campaigning for the presidency. Social media will feature heavily in both the legislative and the presidential election campaigns.

Myanmar exposes social media risks in South-east Asia

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Ethnic Violence ◽  
Societal Impact ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Dual Use ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Systematic Manipulation

Subject Facebook and anti-Rohingya violence. Significance On November 6, Facebook released the conclusions of a study it had commissioned on the use of its platform to foment ethnic violence in Myanmar. The report found that systematic manipulation of social media -- primarily by the military and extremist Buddhist groups -- stoked communal tensions and incited violence against Rohingya Muslims. Impacts Authoritarian regimes across the world will abuse tighter content filters for censorship. Non-democracies will embrace Chinese dual-use technology for their effectiveness and affordability. Profit will trump societal impact in Facebook’s business strategy, despite pressure for digital responsibility.

Preventing US election interference may be too late

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Black Market ◽  
Information Campaign ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Media Manipulation

Significance With the 2020 US presidential election looming, there is more attention to the threat of foreign interference. In the 2016 presidential election, Russia carried out a broad information campaign consisting of fake social media accounts and targeted adverts spreading divisive political content to polarise the electorate. Impacts Trust in the results of elections worldwide will continue to decrease. Voters will doubt the veracity of the information they receive even in the absence of interference. The black market for social media manipulation tools will grow.

US poll security will likely still be issue in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Pressure ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Election Systems ◽  
Media Firms

Significance The bill will move to the Senate, where Republicans fear it over-reaches into states’ powers to manage elections. The standoff takes place within the context of the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, in which Russians interfered via informational techniques and social media. The bill is designed to prevent another such occurrence, but the ability for actors to manipulate election results is more far-reaching than the methods addressed in this bill. Impacts The bill would authorise federal money annually to improve and maintain states’ election systems. Social media firms will face more government and public pressure to prevent foreign election interference via their platforms. Social media firms will find it difficult to police their platforms without increasing editorial control.

The Brazilian Military Regime, 1964–1985

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Napolitano
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The State ◽  
Military Regime ◽  
Political Life ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Capitalist Development ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
The Military ◽  
Political Groups

Since its establishment in 1889, the history of the Brazilian republic was marked by the centrality of the armed forces, particularly the army, in political life. But between 1964 and 1985, the military was in direct command of the state, imposing indirectly elected generals as president. After overthrowing the reformist center-left government of João Goulart on March 31, 1964, the military installed a tutelary authoritarian regime to control civil society and the political system, serving as a political model for similar regimes in Latin America during the Cold War. The military passed arbitrary laws and severely repressed left-wing political groups and social movements while also seeking to accelerate capitalist development and the “national integration” of Brazil’s vast territory. They intended to modernize Brazilian industry and carry out bold infrastructure projects. On the other hand, they faced strong opposition from civil society, led by political groups, artists, intellectuals, and press outlets of diverse ideological backgrounds (Marxists, liberals, socialists, and progressive Catholics). These groups were divided between total refusal to negotiate with the military and critical adherence to the policies of the generals’ governments, composing a complex relationship between society and the state. Understanding the role of the military regime in Brazilian history requires a combination of historical research and historiographic criticism in light of the disputes over memory that continue to divide social and political actors.

Singapore political spats imply future pressures

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Succession Planning ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Narrative

Subject Singapore politics update. Significance Singapore’s minister for home affairs and for law, Kasiviswanathan Shanmugam, took to social media on October 8 to rebut criticisms made by opposition figure and 2011 presidential candidate Tan Cheng Bock. The spat relates to the government’s decision to limit the latest presidential election to ethnic Malay candidates only. The decision has been viewed by government critics as a means of barring Tan from running next time. Impacts The recent political turbulence in Singapore will not affect the country’s economy. Criticisms of the presidential election will not affect daily policymaking: the presidency is largely symbolic. Lee will visit US President Donald Trump on October 23, which will move Singapore’s political narrative on from domestic spats. Questions about succession planning in the governing party are likely to loom increasingly large in coming years.

Maldives presidential election raises violence risk

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance President Abdulla Yameen, who earlier this year arrested two Supreme Court judges while imposing a state of emergency, will be aiming to retain power. Yameen faces a challenge from Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who has most of the opposition's support. Impacts Travel warnings ahead of the election will cause tourist cancellations, hitting the economy. Any unrest within the military will affect security at the airport. Instability could encourage Islamist militants to travel to the Maldives.

Macron-Le Pen rivalry is set to intensify in France

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
French Foreign Policy

Subject French party competition. Significance The 2017 presidential election dealt a major blow to the parties that had dominated French political competition over the past six decades. Party competition consolidated subsequently around a 'globalist against nativist' narrative pitting President Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche (LRM) against Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN). Ahead of the 2022 presidential election, this competition looks set to persist. Impacts Macron’s hardening positions on crime and immigration will weaken further his appeal among left-wing voters. Macron’s focus on the 2022 election may weaken his recent growing assertiveness vis-a-vis EU and French foreign policy. Next year’s municipal elections represent an opportunity for some of the marginalised parties to regain electoral momentum.

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