Macron-Le Pen rivalry is set to intensify in France

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
French Foreign Policy

Subject French party competition. Significance The 2017 presidential election dealt a major blow to the parties that had dominated French political competition over the past six decades. Party competition consolidated subsequently around a 'globalist against nativist' narrative pitting President Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche (LRM) against Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN). Ahead of the 2022 presidential election, this competition looks set to persist. Impacts Macron’s hardening positions on crime and immigration will weaken further his appeal among left-wing voters. Macron’s focus on the 2022 election may weaken his recent growing assertiveness vis-a-vis EU and French foreign policy. Next year’s municipal elections represent an opportunity for some of the marginalised parties to regain electoral momentum.

French foreign policy may become less interventionist

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Trade Negotiations ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
French Foreign Policy ◽  
Defence Cooperation

Significance Foreign policy has so far hardly been an issue in the campaigns for next year's presidential election. Nonetheless, a harsh debate around the structural decline of France's international clout has broken out among experts. Several right-wing contenders have taken these discussions into account, calling for a new image for France in the world. Impacts Given President Francois Hollande's weakness, the winner of the centre-right primaries has a good chance of becoming the next president. France is likely to push for greater foreign policy and defence cooperation with other EU countries as US policy becomes less predictable. France may become more assertive in international trade negotiations, further limiting the prospects of the TTIP EU-US trade deal.

Spain’s Sanchez faces tough battle after Madrid loss

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Party Competition ◽  
Main Issue ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Decline ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance The result led Pablo Iglesias, the founder of Unidas Podemos (UP), which is part of Sanchez’s minority left-wing government, to resign from politics. It also reinforced the national decline of the centre-right Ciudadanos (Cs) party, on which Sanchez has sometimes relied for parliamentary support. Impacts A fresh independence push in Catalonia would boost the electoral prospects of the PP and the far-right Vox party across Spain. Whether to cooperate with Vox in government could become the main issue of division within the PP. The return to traditional two-party competition between the PP and PSOE would increase the prospect of more stable governments.

Nazarbayev's re-election will boost Kazakh 'siloviki'

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Strategic Alliance ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Intention To Stay ◽  
The West ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Office ◽  
High Degree

Significance Three candidates competed for the country's supreme political office in the election on April 26. Unsurprisingly, Nazarbayev (74) won by a landslide, obtaining 97.7% of the total votes cast; the official turnout was 95.2%. This is the fifth presidential election in Kazakhstan since it gained independence in 1991. Nazarbayev's triumphant re-election suggests he intends to stay in power so long as his health permits. The prospect of an early succession is, therefore, again indefinitely delayed. Impacts Nazarbayev's re-election and apparent intention to stay in power are positive signs for foreign investors interested in political stability. His win may facilitate implementing anti-crisis measures thanks to domestic stability and a high degree of political centralisation. Kazakhstan's strategic alliance with Russia in the Eurasian Union is unlikely to experience major changes after Nazarbayev's re-election. Astana will continue to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy aimed at good relations with Russia, China, the West and Islamic countries.

Regional allies may help to counter Congress in Peru

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Competition ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legislative Agenda ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
The Government

Subject Legislative implementation efforts. Significance By requesting special powers from Congress, the new administration hopes to speed up implementation of its legislative agenda. However, Congress -- in which the opposition Fuerza Popular (FP) is by far the largest party -- appears reluctant to offer the new administration a legislative carte blanche. It has the numbers to block all legislation. Impacts The left-wing FA is likely to become a more vociferous opposition to the government's pro-investment agenda than FP. Support for the government will ebb as its initial honeymoon period recedes. Political competition will become more bitter as the 2021 presidential contest approaches.

Coalition conflicts carry credibility costs in Chile

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
The Future ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government

Subject Outlook for the coalition and the government's reform programme. Significance Seventeen months into its four-year term, the centre-left government of President Michelle Bachelet is deeply divided on the future of its reform plans, with the conflicts aggravated by sluggish growth and the administration's mounting unpopularity. There are signs that, looking ahead to October 2016 municipal elections and November 2017 general elections, the centre Christian Democrat Party (PDC) is starting to mark a distance from the government in a bid to appeal to voters alienated by the coalition's left wing. Impacts Infighting within the coalition will persist to the detriment of the government's credibility. For the 2016 municipal elections, the two wings of the coalition will probably field separate candidates. Uncertainty about the government's reform plans will hamper any acceleration of economic growth.

Mongolia's new president may push nationalistic policy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
The Public

Subject The recent presidential election in Mongolia. Significance With the victory of Khaltmaa Battulga in the presidential election on July 7, the Democratic Party (DP) has held onto the presidency. The legislature and cabinet remain in the hands of the rival Mongolian People’s Party (MPP). The election of an MPP president would have signalled continuity and stability; a Battulga win introduces uncertainty. Impacts Battulga may push to scale back austerity and provide the public with more immediate benefits from the resources sector. Despite the anti-Chinese sentiment evident during Battulga's election campaign, he is more likely to be pragmatic than confrontational. Battulga may use the presidency's foreign policy powers to reach out to Russia.

Separatist division boosts support for Sanchez

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Big Business ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Independence Movement ◽  
Electoral Performance

Significance However, Catalan separatist forces have been losing momentum over the past year, owing to fragmentation; the new initiative reflects wider divisions within separatist circles and is unlikely to reunify them. Impacts A more complex party system in Catalonia would make it harder for Sanchez to secure the Catalan votes he needs in the Spanish parliament. The prospect of greater political instability in Catalonia will concern big business. Deeper divisions in the independence movement may help re-elect Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau in next May's municipal elections. Diminished Catalan independence prospects may damage the electoral performance of the unionist Citizens party.

Montenegro election affords mandate for pro-EU policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Policy ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Yugoslav Republic ◽  
Republika Srpska ◽  
The Eu

Subject The Montenegrin strongman’s comfortable win in the presidential election on April 15. Significance Veteran Balkan survivor Milo Djukanovic secured nearly 54% of the votes in the first round, thus avoiding the need for a run-off. He has been the dominant figure in the former Yugoslav republic since the mid-1990s. Still only 56, he looks set to continue to steer Montenegro towards or even into the EU; the target accession date is 2025. Impacts After its Montenegrin setback, Moscow will try to maximise its influence in Serbia and in Bosnia-Hercegovina’s Serb entity Republika Srpska. The EU will take the election result as a rare positive sign these days that the Union is still a pole of attraction. Djukanovic’s win strengthens the position of his party for the municipal elections next month.

Chile leader may see more Prosur headaches than kudos

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Grouping

Subject Foreign policy and Prosur. Significance Government-opposition differences on foreign policy are unusual in Chile, but have been triggered by President Sebastian Pinera’s championship of Prosur, a new regional grouping launched in Santiago on March 22. It has been criticised by the left-wing opposition as bringing together only centre-right and right-wing governments. Impacts Trade issues, although remaining important, may become less of a driver of Chile’s foreign policy. There is no clear reason to expect that Prosur will be more successful than previous initiatives like UNASUR. Discrepancies in Chile over foreign policy and, particularly, relations with the Bolsonaro government will persist.

Suga will hold Japan steady in short term only

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Public Health Crisis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election

Significance He leaves office having failed to achieve his ambition to reform Japan’s constitution, and is widely seen as having mismanaged the most serious public health crisis in decades. Impacts New foreign policy initiatives are unlikely until after the US presidential election. Abe could make a decision before leaving office on whether Japan should acquire pre-emptive strike capabilities. No moves on constitution revision are likely for the next twelve months at least. Japan would be at a disadvantage if a foreign policy crisis were to occur in the next twelve months, and the next few weeks in particular. Whether the Olympics next summer go well will have some influence on whether Suga stays on as leader.

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