Elite Cues and Economic Policy Attitudes: The Mediating Role of Economic Hardship

Do voters update their attitudes toward economic issues in line with their material self-interest? The consensus among students of public opinion is that material self-interest plays a very limited role and that competing non-material factors, such as partisanship or ideological predispositions, do most of the heavy lifting. This paper moves beyond comparing the role of material and non-material factors. Instead, we examine how these factors combine to shape policy preferences. Specifically, we propose a friendly amendment to Zaller’s influential model according to which attitudinal change results from the interaction between changes in elite messaging on the one hand and individual political predispositions on the other. In Zaller’s model, partisanship and ideological predispositions help explain why some resist and others embrace new elite messaging. We hypothesize that material self-interest also conditions the effect of elite messaging. Using British individual-level panel data collected over more than a decade, we show that material hardship predicts who, among left-wing voters, resist new right-wing partisan cues. Our results highlights the incremental impact of material self-interest on economic attitudes.

The ideology of media. Measuring the political leaning of Spanish news media through Twitter users’ interactions

The news media have a strong influence on people’s perception of reality. But despite claims to objectivity, media organizations are, in general, politically biased (Patterson & Donsbach, 1996; Gaebler, 2017). The link between news media outlets and political organizations has been a critical question in political science and communication studies. To assess the closeness between the news media and particular political organizations, scholars have used different methods such as content analysis, undertaking surveys or adopting a political economy view. With the advent of social networks, new sources of data are now available to measure the relationship between media organizations and parties. Assuming that users coherently retweet political and news information (Wong, Tan, Sen & Chiang, 2016), and drawing on the retweet overlap network (RON) method (Guerrero-Solé, 2017), this research uses people’s perceived ideology of Spanish political parties (CIS, 2020) to propose a measure of the ideology of news media in Spain. Results show that scores align with the result of previous research on the ideology of the news media (Ceia, 2020). We also find that media outlets are, in general, politically polarized with two groups or clusters of news media being close to the left-wing parties UP and PSOE, and the other to the right-wing and far-right parties Cs, PP, and Vox. This research also underlines the media’s ideological stability over time.

Analysis of the Twitter discourse in the 2019 electoral debates in Spain: a comparative algorithmic study

This article analyzes and compares the following of Twitter users during the two electoral debates of the general elections in Spain in April and November 2019. Through the collection of the official hashtags #ElDebateDecisivo (970,706 tweets) and #DebateElectoral (821,521) respectively from 9 am on the day of the debate until 2 am the following day, we analyzed the polarity and basic emotions of the messages posted on the social network using algorithms with R software. A network theory study was also carried out to determine each account’s affiliation to each group. The results show a polarization in the network, with well-defined groups with hardly any relationship with other groups of different ideologies. It is also observed that the entry of a new player, Vox, into the second debate completely alters the rest of the center-right parties, which end up seeing it from a much more negative perspective. This entry does not involve major changes among the left-wing parties, but it does mean an increase in fear.

Echoes of Empire: racism and historical amnesia in the British media coverage of migration

This paper looks at how the British media addressed the issue of migration in Europe between 2015 and 2018, four years when the topic was high on news and political agendas, due to the so-called ‘refugee crisis’ and the UK’s debate on Britain’s relationship with the European Union and free movement of people. Based on a sample of 400 articles from two national newspapers, The Guardian and The Times, the paper compares the content and discourse between the left-wing and right-wing press. The paper argues that media representations turn refugees into ‘migrants’ and portray them as either a threat to the national economy and security or as passive victims of distant circumstances. The study historicizes these media narratives and reveals that the discourse they employ advances the racialised mix of knowledge and historical amnesia and reproduces the age-old hierarchies of the colonial system which divided humans into superior and inferior species. Migrant voice is largely missing from the coverage. History, that could explain the causes of ‘migration’, the distant conflicts and Britain’s role in them, is also nowhere to be found. The paper considers the exclusion of history and migrant voices from stories told to the British audience and reflects on their domestic and international implications.

What Curbs Social Investment? The Effect of Foreign Electoral Outcomes on Childcare Expenditure Levels

This study aims to deepen our understanding of social investment expansion proposing a political learning mechanism to link existing institutional and political explanations. When resources are limited, increased spending in social investment often comes at the expense of politically costly retrenchment of established social insurance policies. Previous studies suggest that this trade-off results in existing entitlements crowding out new policies, and that party ideology plays less of a role in determining social policy expansion. I argue that this is because parties face an electoral dilemma, as individual preferences for social investment and social insurance have been shown to differ between groups that partly overlap in their voting behaviour. Applying a policy diffusion framework to the analysis of childcare expenditure, this study proposes that policymakers learn from the political consequences of past decisions made by their foreign counterparts and update their policy choice accordingly. The econometric analysis of OECD data on childcare expenditure shows that governments tend to make spending decisions that follow those of ideologically similar cabinets abroad and that left-wing governments with a divided electorate tend to reduce childcare expenditure if a previous expansionary decision of a foreign incumbent is followed by an electoral defeat. The findings have implications for the study of the politics of social policy development.

Bayesian Constitutionalization: Twitter Sentiment Analysis of the Chilean Constitutional Process through Bayesian Network Classifiers

Constitutional processes are a cornerstone of modern democracies. Whether revolutionary or institutionally organized, they establish the core values of social order and determine the institutional architecture that governs social life. Constitutional processes are themselves evolutionary practices of mutual learning in which actors, regardless of their initial political positions, continuously interact with each other, demonstrating differences and making alliances regarding different topics. In this article, we develop Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN) classifiers to model the behavior of constituent agents. According to the nature of the constituent dynamics, weights are learned by the model from the data using an evolution strategy to obtain a good classification performance. For our analysis, we used the constituent agents’ communications on Twitter during the installation period of the Constitutional Convention (July–October 2021). In order to differentiate political positions (left, center, right), we applied the developed algorithm to obtain the scores of 882 ballots cast in the first stage of the convention (4 July to 29 September 2021). Then, we used k-means to identify three clusters containing right-wing, center, and left-wing positions. Experimental results obtained using the three constructed datasets showed that using alternative weight values in the TAN construction procedure, inferred by an evolution strategy, yielded improvements in the classification accuracy measured in the test sets compared to the results of the TAN constructed with conditional mutual information, as well as other Bayesian network classifier construction approaches. Additionally, our results may help us to better understand political behavior in constitutional processes and to improve the accuracy of TAN classifiers applied to social, real-world data.

Reclaiming the People: Counter-Populist Algorithmic Activism on Israeli Facebook

This article examines a new form of resistance to right-wing populist discourse on social media which I define as counter-populist algorithmic activism. Practitioners of this type of activism exploit platforms’ automated ranking mechanisms and interface design to bolster the online visibility of counter-populist voices. By so doing, activists seek to stymie the digitally mediated spread of right-wing populist rhetoric and advance an alternative, non-exclusionary vision of “the people.” To explore this nascent form of resistance, this study draws on a year-long online ethnography of a Facebook group of Israeli activists called Strengthening the Left Online. Through an observation of the group’s activities during 2017, as well as interviews with its main administrator and other left-wing Facebook users, I elucidate the distinctive nature of the motivations, strategies, and goals that guide counter-populist algorithmic activists.

Peripheralization, Political Discontent, and Social and Solidarity Economy—Case Studies From Rural Hungary and Germany

The reintegration of Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies into globalized capitalism resulted in increasing regional polarization and the emergence of internal peripheries. The crisis of the globalized capitalist economy in 2008 resulted in the further peripheralization of rural areas, and the related crisis of representative democracies triggered rural resentment against the existing order. Inhabitants of peripheralized areas have a feeling of abandonment and political discontent. The rise of right-wing populism may be understood as a revolt of people living in precarious conditions in peripheralized areas both in Hungary and Germany. Left-wing populism, which builds on equality and social justice and is based on radical democracy, has not been able so far to reach the precaritized inhabitants of peripheralized rural areas. Solidarity economy, which is a contemporary social movement, refers to a comprehensive program aimed at transforming the entire economy, and may have the potential to address the political discontent of people living in peripheralized rural areas. In spite of the rising support for right-wing populism, social and solidarity economy (SSE) initiatives are being carried out in rural peripheries. These initiatives are based on the principles of participatory and economic democracy. Spaces provided by SSE initiatives can become forums for deliberation and co-management to develop economic democracy and become seeds of a solidarity economy movement in CEE. Therefore, based on a critical realist ethnographic approach, this paper aims to answer the question of how SSE initiatives may address the everyday material challenges and political discontent of people living in peripheralized villages by studying two SSE initiatives being carried out in two contrasting cases of peripheralization. Studying SSE initiatives in relation to 1) the locality they are embedded in, 2) “subaltern” groups within the locality, and 3) participatory, economic and 4) representative democracy helps to better understand in what ways SSE initiatives can mobilize political discontent to strengthen the solidarity economy movement in CEE.

The Use of Primaries by Political Parties: The Case of PASOK

This paper examines the primary elections of the PanHellenic Socialist Party (PASOK) which were held on 5th and 12th of December 2021. Six candidates run for the position of the president in the first round and two runners-up in the second. As mentioned in the literature, there is a dearth of primary elections studies relative to general elections. The latter attract the attention of mass media for the obvious reason: they determine who or which party will govern the country or any other political entity. Nevertheless, there is a growing literature on primary studies. There are three aspects researched in this literature: (a) primary elections systems, (b) why a political party decides to hold primary elections and (c) the selection criteria of candidates and voters. This paper uses the existing literature to analyze some facets of the history of PASOK’s primary elections, emphasizing the most recent one of 2021. The most important conclusion emerging from this analysis is that ideology did play a role, particularly the candidates’ stance on their possible collaboration with the right-wing or the left-wing parties, which has been a controversial issue in the last decade. Another important conclusion is that PASOK voters opted for a younger candidate primarily because they wanted to get out of the current stalemate of PASOK’s low performance in general elections. As predicted from the literature, the competition between the six candidates resulted in a large turnout on the ballot date even though other factors played a positive role such as very good weather and a wide media coverage. Keywords: primaries, elections, voting, political parties, PASOK, Greece

Z problematyki emigracji z Grecji do Polski Ludowej

The 1944–1949 Greek civil war between the supporters of the monarchy with the right-wing government and the left-wing forces with the Democratic Army of Greece resulted in the death of approximately 100,000 people and forced partisans and their families to migrate to countries of “people’s democracy.” It is estimated that the Polish People’s Republic accepted approximately 14,000 people (children and adults). The article describes the genesis of the conflict that led to the outbreak of the civil war as well as the increasing polarization of the Greek population. It presents the (political and social) complexity of the processes of emigrating from Greece to the people’s democracies and selected aspects of the organization of the Greek community’s life in the Polish People’s Republic.