EU-Japan trade deal gives free trade a timely boost

Subject The EU-Japan economic partnership agreement Significance The EU and Japan, which together account for 30% of global GDP, have reached a framework agreement on an economic partnership agreement (EPA), paving the way for the creation of the world's largest free trade area. The EPA involves high standards of trade liberalisation, comparable to the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Impacts Japan will expand its traditional exports (autos and electronics), but also new 'star' products such as sake and green tea. The EU will benefit most from opportunities to export more agricultural goods, processed food and beverages. European auto and electronics makers and Japanese producers of food and agricultural products will face greater competitive pressure. The EPA will boost household consumption in both economies. EU-Japan cooperation on standard-setting may create challenges for developing countries in particular.

Subject EU-Africa trade talks. Significance The EU is negotiating three regional protocols as part of its trade and aid negotiations with African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) states to conclude a successor to the existing ACP-EU Cotonou Partnership Agreement due to expire in 2020. However, the Africa Regional Protocol, with its likely commitment to an Africa-Europe free trade area, is set to undermine the EU's ongoing efforts to curb African migration. Impacts The new partnership will come under increasing pressure from right-wing European populists seeking to further politicise migration flows. Any liberalisation gains for African farmers will likely prove short-lived and insufficient to offset negative effects from import flooding. The EU may increasingly condition aid on stricter border surveillance measures and repatriation schemes from ACP states to stem migration.


Subject EU-Japan cooperation. Significance Three agreements between the EU and Japan took effect this year after nearly eight years of negotiations. They create the worlds’ largest free trade area and largest area of ‘safe data flows’, and establish a strategic partnership promising increased cooperation in 40 fields. Impacts Japanese automakers and European farmers will be the greatest beneficiaries of the bilateral free trade agreement. The Strategic Partnership Agreement could pave the way for joint Japan-EU security operations. The Data Movement Agreement will facilitate international trade in ‘big data’. The agreements are in part an attempt to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative.


2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.K.M. Nurul Hossain ◽  
Mohammad Abdul Munim Joarder

Purpose – The authors considered three regional trading agreements (RTAs): European Union (EU-25), ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), and South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) to test the hypothesis that poor members within a RTA catch rich members and thereby follow the path of income convergence. Of particular interest is to test whether partial openness (i.e. formation of RTAs) or openness or political conditions are conducive to economic growth among the member countries of RTAs. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The authors used pooled datasets from three different RTAs, namely the EU-25, the AFTA, and the SAFTA. Taking five years average for all variables, starting from 1961 to 1965 and extending to 2001-2005, the authors tested the hypothesis that the growth rate of per capita GDP is negatively related to the initial level of per capita GDP. Constructing a dynamic behavioral equation and forming the reduced form equation, the authors calculated the s-convergence, and both conditional and unconditional convergence. Findings – The authors found that both the EU-25 and the AFTA exhibit s-convergence, and both conditional and unconditional convergence, while the reverse evidence was observed in the case of the SAFTA. However, the speed of convergence of the AFTA was found to be much higher than that of the EU-25. Originality/value – Formation of RTA by countries should be considered as an essential condition to achieve sustained economic growth. In addition, political rights, trade openness, and more importantly benevolence of the member countries within the RTA must be shown to sustain economic growth and convergence; otherwise with the passage of time, divergence among the RTA members will be evident.


Subject The EU-Ukraine trade agreement. Significance The delayed EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) will start in January. The accord is set to strengthen ties between the EU and Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the ending of a free-trade zone with Ukraine, arguing that the new Kyiv-EU deal will harm Russia's economy. Also, in retaliation for Kyiv's participation in sanctions against Russia, the Kremlin has ordered an embargo against Ukraine food imports into Russia, which could cost Kyiv 300-600 million dollars per year. Impacts Ukraine will continue to reorient itself and sell food and products to other markets, such as Turkey and Israel. An influx of imports from the EU could prove a serious challenge to many local producers and thus should stimulate reforms. Termination of Ukraine trade with annexed Crimea from mid-January will weaken Kyiv-Moscow ties further.


2006 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-60
Author(s):  
Dennis D. Trinidad

The paper is a theoretical discourse on policy shift, defined as the turning point or threshold by which policymaking agents abandon old policy preferences in favor of new ones. It contends that policy shift is contingent upon two factors: (1) the nature of elite interests, and (2) exogenous pressures like world prices and economic crises. The dismantling of cohesive elite interests is essential before policy shift could take place. Exogenous pressures can help achieve this by altering the settings which define these interests. Specifically, the paper examines the liberalization of trade and investment in the Philippines as an episode of policy shift. In the 1980s, the sudden reversal of international prices of agricultural products forced many agrarian elites to abandon agriculture and shift to other more lucrative business ventures like services and manufacturing. In the process, they explored new areas of interest and formulated corresponding sets of policy preferences. Against this backdrop and under a new constitution, former President Fidel V. Ramos and his successors pursued liberalization. The trend toward further economic liberalization became irreversible due to the country’s commitment to international agreements such as the World Trade Organization, ASEAN Free Trade Area, ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement and the proposed Philippines-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement.


2011 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-64
Author(s):  
Guanyi Leu

This paper provides a diversification explanation in order understand the development of PTAs in Southeast Asia. I argue that an important reason why ASEAN states participate in PTAs has been to diversify existing trade ties and to reduce overdependence on a narrow range of export markets. Southeast Asian countries have formed PTAs with markets with which they had weak or unexplored economic relations, as demonstrated by three case analyses: the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) and the ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (AJCEP). To maximise the economic gains and the diversification effects of PTA participation, ASEAN countries have pursued a strategy of strengthening economic unity while keeping external economic linkages as diversified as possible. Although East Asia, and especially China, was an important alternative market to reduce ASEAN's dependence on trade with America, ASEAN countries have also pursued PTAs with a number of other trading partners. This paper explains how PTAs have helped ASEAN states to develop more policy autonomy in their trading environment.


Subject West African protectionism. Significance The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), an African Union (AU) initiative to create a single market for goods and services throughout the continent, will start trading on July 1. In anticipation, the EU has declared its intention to establish a bicontinental ‘Eurafrican’ free trade area, building upon the AfCFTA. However, the nascent framework faces distinct internal and external threats. Impacts The secretary-general post is a considerable boost for South Africa given the postholder’s role in implementing AfCFTA’s liberalisation. Ghana’s main parties will try to outbid each other for farming support, with resulting protectionist promises, before this year's polls. Intra-African tensions will be heightened by perceived AfCFTA breaches, such as Nigeria’s border closure.


Significance Even in a no-deal outcome, the United Kingdom's trade orientation towards Africa will look remarkably familiar as London seeks immediately to replicate the terms of the EU’s economic partnership agreements (EPAs) with Sub-Saharan African states. Impacts Opposition will grow to the EU’s EPAs -- and to the replicated UK EPAs -- by trade justice campaigners. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could potentially help African states collectively to renegotiate EPAs on a fairer footing. A key London post-Brexit focus will be persuading African EPA sceptics (such as Nigeria or Tanzania) to join such regional free trade deals.


Significance However, coordination and implementation challenges still weigh on its prospects. Impacts The AfCFTA is projected to increase continental GDP by 0.97%. Employment should increase by 1.17%, but regional distribution will be sufficiently uneven that some countries will face downturns. The AfCFTA could increase Africa’s bargaining power with the EU in post-Cotonou negotiations.


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