Wargames show Russian power in wilful Belarus

Significance The Zapad-2017 exercises, held in Belarus and north-western Russia, ended without incident on September 20. They underlined Moscow's capacity to wage conventional war in Europe and its ability to deploy large number of troops in Belarus at short notice. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin attended different parts of the exercises in their own countries, symbolising (even if inadvertently) the gulf between them. Impacts The scale and relevance of the Zapad exercises will encourage the United States to strengthen its presence on NATO's eastern fringes. The Eastern Partnership offers the EU and Belarus a framework for building closer ties. Ukraine will seek opportunities for greater defence cooperation with NATO, although accession is not an option.

Significance The debate around European defence integration has surfaced periodically over past decades, but progress has fallen short of expectations. Brexit and the elections of Presidents Emmanuel Macron in France and Donald Trump in the United States have given fresh impetus to attempts to strengthen EU cooperation. Impacts Countries such as Italy and Poland will press the EU to devote more resources to their specific security-related challenges. For now, Brexit appears unlikely to affect the strong UK-French industrial arrangements in the defence sector. Defence cooperation will proceed primarily through further research and development cooperation.


Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.


Author(s):  
Olena Skrypnyk

In this article to analyzes the policy of the European Union’s «Eastern Partnership». Determined US relation to the initiative of the EU. Characterized four summits the EU «Eastern Partnership» and followed the US response to these summits. The attention to Ukraine’s participation in the summit of the EU and the US position on this issue. Determined that the United States strongly supports the EU initiative «Eastern Partnership», especially in order to spread in the countries of the «Eastern Partnership» democracy, ensure human rights and freedoms, and to improve the socio-economic situation of these countries.


Significance In 2020 the European Commission appointed a Chief Trade Enforcement Officer for the first time, signalling that Brussels is intent on enhancing its capacity to enforce standards agreed in trade deals. However, the EU's experience with South Korea suggests that holding trade partners to account over breaching standards will be difficult. Impacts Relations with trade partners could deteriorate if the EU is seen to be aggressive in enforcing its standards. Concern over China’s willingness to improve labour and environmental standards could impede ratification the EU-China investment agreement. The EU may be reluctant to sanction some partners, such as the United States, that breach labour or environmental standards.


Significance The United States has already committed, in an unprecedented deal with China in November 2014, to reducing its emissions to 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025 (an improvement on its previous 17% goal). China in return pledged that its emissions would peak around 2030. This agreement is a game-changer for combating global climate change, since the two countries are the world's largest sources of carbon emissions, together accounting for 40% of the total, and were not covered under the now-expired Kyoto Protocol. Impacts Washington is poised to reclaim its place, lost after Kyoto, as a leader in global efforts against climate change. US-China climate cooperation initiatives could serve as templates for other developing countries. There are new opportunities for trilateral cooperation involving the EU. Fears that the bilateral agreement makes the UNFCCC obsolete are unwarranted, but it could preclude more ambitious efforts.


Subject Russian agriculture Significance On June 24 President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to prolong Russia's food embargo in retaliation for the continuation of Western sanctions. Putin said the counter-sanctions would benefit domestic producers. The extension will last until August 2016. Russia's food embargo was initially introduced in August 2014 against EU members, the United States, Canada, Australia and Norway. The August 2014 embargo applied to most imports of fruit, vegetables, meat, fish and dairy and milk products. Impacts Russia will remain a large global exporter of grain, but increased investment will be needed, particularly on machinery. Moscow may expand the embargo to new sectors to inflict greater pain on Western producers. Simultaneously, it will seek to increase agricultural ties with non-Western markets to ensure food security.


Significance The deal was one of a number of key agreements that Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed during his visit to Tehran on May 23. The visit aimed to advance relations following the lifting of sanctions on Iran in January, and a decade of missed opportunities and rising suspicion in relations between Tehran and Delhi. Impacts Expanding energy and trade ties will support Iran's efforts to diversify its economy and trade relationships. Building economic ties with India will help the normalisation of Tehran's international relations. India will limit security and defence cooperation with Iran in order to avoid alienating Israel, Gulf states and the United States.


Subject Denmark's defence policy. Significance Denmark's decision to acquire a new fleet of fifth-generation F-35 stealth joint-strike fighter jets to replace its ageing and non-stealthy fourth-generation F-16s ends a long period of uncertainty around the future of the Danish air force. The purchase of the F-35s will also solidify and deepen Denmark's political-military links to the United States and could open the door for increased cooperation with other northern European countries operating F-35s such as the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Norway. Impacts The decision will increase the chances of Finland also selecting the F-35 in its upcoming competition to replace its current fleet of F-18s. Participation in future out-of-area operations may be limited, owing to the need to increase the share of the procurement budget. The deal will help solidify Denmark's orientation towards NATO and Washington and away from defence cooperation under the EU.


Subject Chinese FDI into Europe. Significance China's hosting of the G20 summit on September 4-5 came as it is recalibrating its foreign economic strategy, becoming a major investor in the West and particularly the EU. With a few notable exceptions, EU governments have been keen to encourage those investments. Impacts While China will continue to relax restrictions on investments into its domestic economy, it is unlikely to reciprocate fully to the EU. Sectors China considers strategic, including defence equipment and infrastructure, will remain out of bounds to foreign companies. Concerns about the geostrategic risk of Chinese investments appear to resonate more strongly in Australia and the United States than the EU.


Subject Erdogan’s visit to Serbia. Significance The Turkish president’s visit to Serbia on October 9-11 was much publicised. Recep Tayyip Erdogan received a hero’s welcome at a rally in Novi Pazar, where he appeared alongside Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. Both governments are keen to boost economic ties. Impacts Size and location make Serbia a key economic and diplomatic partner for Turkey in former Yugoslavia. The Turkish state will continue to claim leadership over Balkan Muslims and seek to contain the influence of radical Islam. All Balkan governments will seek good ties with Turkey and to minimise any fallout from Erdogan’s spat with the EU and the United States.


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