The Effect of Economic Crises on Japan’s Bilateral Trade Distribution: Examination of the Tohoku Earthquake Impact on African Markets

This paper examines the Japanese International Bilateral Trade Flow (JIBTF) in relation to economic crises, such as the Tohoku earthquake, and focuses on changes in the Distribution Networks of JIBTF (DNoJ) concerning African countries and Japanese Major Trade Partners (JMTP). The Harmonized System 6-digit level (“total” and product level) panel data from 2001 to 2019 are analyzed by employing the (structural) gravity method. First, the results of the study find that the Tohoku earthquake, compared to the 2008 crisis, has a stronger negative impact on the JIBTF and affects the DNoJ among Japanese trade partners. Second, the results prove that Japanese trade intention with African markets decreases relatively. In other words, exporting to African countries has a negative interaction effect after 2015. On the contrary, this interaction effect on JMTP comparatively increases; thus, Japan relocates its export to other markets such as JMTP. The Tohoku earthquake shaped the JIBTF to be more integrated with the Asia-Pacific and the EU regions, instead of African markets.JEL Classification Codes: F10, F14, C23, C24

The Effect of Economic Crises on Japan’s Bilateral Trade Distribution: Examination of the Tohoku Earthquake Impact on African Markets

This paper examines the Japanese International Bilateral Trade Flow (JIBTF) in relation to economic crises, such as the Tohoku earthquake, and focuses on changes in the Distribution Networks of JIBTF (DNoJ) concerning African countries and Japanese Major Trade Partners (JMTP). The Harmonized System 6-digit level (“total” and product level) panel data from 2001 to 2019 are analyzed by employing the (structural) gravity method. First, the results of the study find that the Tohoku earthquake, compared to the 2008 crisis, has a stronger negative impact on the JIBTF and affects the DNoJ among Japanese trade partners. Second, the results prove that Japanese trade intention with African markets decreases relatively. In other words, exporting to African countries has a negative interaction effect after 2015. On the contrary, this interaction effect on JMTP comparatively increases; thus, Japan relocates its export to other markets such as JMTP. The Tohoku earthquake shaped the JIBTF to be more integrated with the Asia-Pacific and the EU regions, instead of African markets.JEL Classification Codes: F10, F14, C23, C24

A Conceptual Forecasting Analysis of International Trade Aspects Based on Globalization Impact Issues

Global GDP is really important for trade, since the larger the global economy, the more goods and services available for trade. Global GDP grew by around two-thirds in real terms between 2000 and 2020 – or 2.6% per year on average.2020 saw some of the largest trade reductions and output volumes for both industrial production and goods trade since WWII. The year 2020 was marked by some of the largest reductions in trade and output volumes since WWII. The declines in both world industrial production and goods trade in the first half of 2020 were of similar depth to those at the trough of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In addition, trade and production impacts across specific goods, services and trade partners were highly varied. Initial pandemic-era expectations for a double-digit decline in world merchandise trade in 2020 did not materialise. Global trade turned out to recover from the shock at an extraordinarily fast pace from around mid-2020.

DYNAMIC AND STRUCTURAL DISPROPORTATIONS OF THE BALANCE IN FOREIGN TRADE IN TEXTILE GOODS OF THE EAEU AND BELARUS

The article is devoted to the study of the balance of foreign trade in textile goods (C13) in two directions: on the one hand, the EAEU in mutual trade and with third countries, on the other hand, Belarus in mutual trade with the EAEU member states and third countries. A comparative analysis of the dynamics and changes in the structure of key indicators of foreign trade in the context of the main commodity groups, goods and key foreign trade partners has been carried out. The author identified the reasons and factors that have a negative impact on the dynamics of the balance of foreign trade in textiles between the EAEU and Belarus in order to make management decisions.

China looks to ASEAN for closer ties, freer trade, and more harmonious relations: a Commentary

This paper is in three main parts. Firstly, we summarize key features of the history of trade relationships between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Association of South East Asian countries (ASEAN). This includes a brief examination of the different visions held by ASEAN and PRC and the implications for the various trade partners. In the second part we turn our focus to the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (GAZR) that is on the shores of the South China Sea and a key region being developed as the Beibu Gulf Economic Rim. The port city of Qinzhou is the nearest deep-water port to the ASEAN countries like Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines etc and lies at the eastern end of the Southern Transport Corridor (STC) that links Lanzhou on the Yellow River in NW China, to the coast. Finally, we present a cameo on Qinzhou’s Free Trade Port Areas and their role in the ASEAN–China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA).

Investigation of the Relations Between Foreign Trade and Characteristics of Environmental Quality: Existing Approaches and Approbation of Gravity Modeli

The purpose of this study is for the author to summarize approaches and methods for assessing availability, identifying forms and types of relations between characteristics of environmental quality and international trade, and also to test the gravity theory of trade as such a method (on the example of the Republic of Belarus).The author has investigated modern economic works devoted to the study of the influence of trade liberalization on environmental pollution, the pollution haven hypothesis, the environmental Kuznets curve, the Porter hypothesis, etc., as well as the studies aimed at confirming or refuting these hypotheses, has systematized modern approaches to assessing the relations between trade and environmental indicators.Based on the panel data for the period from 1995 to 2019, the author has constructed the gravity models of trade (separately for export and import) of the Republic of Belarus with the EAEU partner countries and neighboring countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Ukraine), taking into account the environmental impact (the carbon dioxide emissions as the proxy variable of pollution). The simulation results have confirmed the theoretical provisions of the gravity theory. In addition, a significant effect of an increase in carbon dioxide emissions of countries – trade partners of the Republic of Belarus on its imports has been revealed.

Food Security and COVID-19: Impacts and Resilience in Singapore

Across the world, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted food supply chains and threatened food security. Singapore is highly dependent on food imports and has an open economy that exposes it to volatile global markets, so it is acutely vulnerable to the effects of the pandemic on other countries, the effectiveness of measures taken by foreign governments to combat the spread of the virus and overall disruptions of international trade links. Proactive and reactive steps have been taken to protect Singapore's food supply chains against the adverse impacts of COVID-19. In this paper, we discuss food security in the city state, the impacts of COVID-19 in the population, the local production, and imports from two main trade partners: Malaysia and China. We conclude by acknowledging the complexity of achieving food security under the very difficult circumstances.

Development of customs infrastructure on the Ukrainian –Polish border in the conditions of business internationalization

The relations between Ukraine and Poland represent a long history of partnership and have a great economic importance for both countries. At the present stage, Poland is one of the largest international trade partners of our country. In the history of Ukraine's foreign trade during 2019-2020, Poland occupied second place in the structure of domestic exports. Thus, in 2020 the share of exports of Ukrainian goods to Poland was 6.65%. First of all, it means a change in the vector of foreign trade development for the national economy and the reorientation of Ukraine's export market to the European Union. In 2020, Poland also occupied one of the leading positions in the structure of Ukrainian imports of goods (4th place with a share of 7.62%). This situation leads to a significant increase in the load at checkpoints and causes the need to ensure prompt and efficient customs clearance of goods moving across the Ukrainian-Polish border. On the basis of the performed researches, significant differences in the levels of development of the customs services of Poland and Ukraine in terms of the quality of customs services have been established, as Ukraine lags far behind Poland in all the studied indicators in this area. Such situation requires the improvement of the work of Ukrainian customs authorities in the context of business internationalization, including the development of customs infrastructure in the area of the Ukrainian-Polish border. The key problems of customs service of enterprises at domestic checkpoints include long and costly customs procedures, lack of proper technical, road, information infrastructure at checkpoints, outdated technical instruments of customs control, etc. It is proved that in the conditions of business internationalization one of the key tasks should be the construction of new checkpoints and the development of the customs infrastructure of the existing checkpoints. The key strategically important checkpoints in the area of the Ukrainian-Polish border, which need to be modernized in order to increase their capacity, include road checkpoints "Korchova-Krakivets", "Dorokhusk-Yagodyn", "Medyka-Shehyni", as well as a railway checkpoint "Medyka-Mostyska". In addition, the importance of spreading the practice of construction of joint checkpoints, which allows to significantly speed up the process of customs services for businesses, was emphasized.

Chapter 6: Russia’s Regional Free Trade Agreements and Agri-Food Trade After 2014

This chapter analyses changes in Russia’s agri-food trade relations after 2014 with a specific focus on regional trade agreements. The introduction of countersanctions against Western countries in 2014 spurred the need to replace some of Russia’s most important foreign food trade partners. Free trade agreements can be effective instruments to boost trade and strengthen ties between countries. Russia is a latecomer in the race for free trade agreements, but a series of agreements have been negotiated since 2015. The portfolio of free trade agreements is still in an early stage, but there is a clear turn to Asia in Russia’s trade. China’s role in total trade as well as in agri-food trade with Russia is considerably strengthened despite the lack of trade preferences so far.