Prospects for South-east Asia in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Subject Prospects for South-east Asia in 2020. Significance Most South-east Asian governments are politically secure, but they face challenges regarding trade and diplomacy. Worsening trade conditions, partly due to the US-China tariff dispute, are slowing growth in region.

South-east Asia-US trade preferences debates beckon

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance The preferential US trade programme faces renewal or lapse by December 31. South-east Asia’s economies are structured to take advantage of the GSP and many of the products exported to the United States under GSP (such as light manufactures and seafood) are important for South-east Asia’s supply chains. Impacts Vietnam may make another application for inclusion in the US GSP programme. The more authoritarian South-east Asian countries could find it easier to gain US GSP preferences under Trump. The Trump administration could use the GSP as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations or renegotiations.

US Jerusalem move could risk South-east Asia security

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
State Solution ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
East Asia Security ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance All but one of the ASEAN governments voted in favour of the resolution; the Philippines abstained. South-east Asian leaders are attempting to walk a difficult line, seeking to maintain good relations with the Trump administration while upholding their longstanding support for a two-state solution regarding Israel and the Palestinians. Impacts Opposition to the US announcement on Jerusalem could see further boycotts of US businesses in South-east Asia. As ASEAN chair, Singapore will discourage a group statement criticising Washington over Jerusalem. The Jerusalem decision will heighten domestic opposition to any trade deals ASEAN governments may seek with Washington.

Major powers eye places, not bases, in South-east Asia

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Security Issue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Major Powers ◽  
Strategic Competition ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Military Facilities

Subject Issue of whether there will be foreign 'bases' in South-east Asia. Significance As strategic competition grows in the Indo-Pacific region, major powers are increasingly interested in gaining access to military facilities in South-east Asia. Since late 2018, the US government has expressed concern that Cambodia has secretly agreed to allow China to use its naval and air facilities. Impacts Growing US-China tensions will become the defining security issue for South-east Asian countries in coming decades. South-east Asian states will try to avoid choosing between Washington and Beijing on security arrangements, trade pacts and technology. ASEAN will promote its ‘Outlook on the Indo-Pacific’, which stresses ASEAN centrality, economic connectivity and dialogue.

US eyes digital trade deal with South-east Asia

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Digital Governance ◽  
Strong Candidate

Significance Washington is highly receptive to these calls. Regardless of who wins the US presidential election next week, a digital trade agreement with South-east Asia will be a strong candidate for the next administration’s trade agenda. Impacts Washington will seek ASEAN endorsement of US principles on digital governance but avoid a trade pact with ASEAN itself. A digital trade pact would allow Washington to influence South-east Asian tax rules for US ‘big tech’. Global technological decoupling would increase if South-east Asian countries embrace US technology standards.

Parts of South-east Asia may adopt nuclear post-2030

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Energy Development ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electricity Grid ◽  
Renewable Energy Development

Significance It is the only country in South-east Asia with a large-scale nuclear plant, although this was never loaded with fuel. Other countries in the region have tentative plans to develop nuclear power programmes. Impacts The current absence of nuclear power programmes will help avert the diversion of capital from renewable energy development in the region. South-east Asian countries with small, non-power reactors, built for research, will try to maintain these facilities. Across the region, the need for electricity grid investment will increase as more decentralised generation sources are deployed.

ASEAN-India naval ties are symbolic, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Role

Subject The outlook for Indian naval engagement with South-east Asian countries and ASEAN. Significance At the ASEAN summit in mid-November, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi underlined India's 'Look East' policy, pledging to cultivate diplomatic, economic and security relationships with South-east Asia. One manifestation of Delhi's willingness to undertake a more strategic regional role is the Indian navy's growing portfolio of partnerships with South-east Asian navies. Amid concerns over China's maritime assertiveness, India's navy has been welcomed in the region as a security partner. Impacts India will avoid South-east Asian undertakings that may provoke China. Delhi will need to define 'Look East' policies concretely to convince South-east Asia fully of Indian strategic utility. Modi will expand bilateral naval exercises, humanitarian aid and counter-piracy/smuggling efforts in South-east Asia.

South-east Asian demand for crowdfunding could grow

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
East Asian ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Product Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Regulatory Reforms

Subject Crowdfunding in South-east Asia. Significance Regulatory reforms have made possible a range of alternative financing initiatives that raised almost 84 million dollars for small businesses in the past three years from South-east Asian platforms alone. Crowdfunding is the fastest-growing segment, though amounts are still small. Impacts Further industry-specific regulatory reforms will be required to support South-east Asian crowdfunding. Facing competition, more banks will be forced to offer online crowdfunding-related products. However, low product returns could be a disincentive to large investor interest in crowdfunding.

Tax plan could raise South-east Asia corporate costs

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Multinational Companies ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tax Amnesty ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Tax Bases

Subject South-east Asian tax bases. Significance Indonesia's tax amnesty programme enters its third phase in 2017. The amnesty will generate short-term revenue, but it is not a solution to a wider problem of limited tax bases found across the ASEAN core economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Impacts Bilateral tax treaties may change following OECD reforms, even if South-east Asian states are not party to the initiatives. Compliance costs for country-by-country reporting for multinational companies under the OECD initiatives could be substantial. More efficient tax collection and wider tax bases could benefit ASEAN states' development such as infrastructure.

Online extremism poses new threats to South-east Asia

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Suicide Bombings ◽  
The Military

Subject Online radicalisation. Significance On May 25, the Indonesian parliament unanimously passed stringent anti-terrorism laws allowing the military to be directly involved in counterterrorism operations. The vote followed a string of suicide bombings attributed to local jihadist networks that have pledged allegiance to Islamic State (IS). Jakarta joins other South-east Asian governments -- notably those of Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore -- in attempting to counter a new push in the region by IS, as it loses territory in Iraq and Syria. Impacts Rising anti-Shia sentiment in the region, a by-product of increased Saudi influence, will likely give IS new issues to exploit. The Rohingya crisis gives IS a regional boost, especially in terms of operations in Myanmar and more likely in Yangon than Rakhine State. Non-ideological, low-wage overseas workers, particularly from the Philippines and Indonesia, are most susceptible to IS.

Tourism will rise rapidly as an engine of Asian growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type

Significance Inbound and outbound Asian tourism has exploded over the last 20 years, especially in East and South East Asia. However, the sector faces challenges. Impacts Supporting tourism, Asia hosts three Olympics in a row -- South Korea 2018 (winter games), Tokyo 2020 (summer) and Beijing 2022 (winter). Tourism is a key source of exports and dollars; if Cambodia is hit by sanctions after its disputed election, tourism could cushion GDP. In ten years the UN sees India's population overtaking China's, making Indian travellers key to East and South-east Asian tourism.

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