Lower naira will not offset Nigerian recession risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
Multiple Exchange ◽  
Price War ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Subject Pressured naira. Significance The naira has depreciated by approximately 11% on the parallel market since the Saudi-Russia oil price war began, which dashed hopes of OPEC+ supply curbs to stem the price rout amid the escalating COVID-19 pandemic. This has hampered the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) ability to support the multiple exchange rate regime, prompting a sharp devaluation of the official exchange rate. Impacts The naira’s devaluation will accelerate rising inflationary pressures from the closure of Nigeria’s land borders last year. The CBN could impose damaging capital controls once more if the exchange rate falls further towards 500:1. With low funds in the oil savings fund, the authorities will likely limit their intervention against COVID-19 to soft loans from the CBN.

On the asymmetric response of the exchange rate to shocks in the crude oil market

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 839-852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huthaifa Alqaralleh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the nonlinear dynamics in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate for a sample from the Group of Twenty (G20) over the period 1994:1-2019:1. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly time series data covering the period1994:1-2019:1, the author first use the non-parametric triples test of Randles et al. (1980) to ascertain the existence of asymmetric properties in the sample of exchange rates. Then the author used the nonlinear ARDL cointegration approach developed by Shin et al. (2014) to examine the reaction of these exchange rates to the oil price shocks. Findings This study has identified significant evidence that the exchange rate is asymmetrically distributed, with the effect that high appreciation of the exchange rate is followed by slower depreciation. The NARDL results support such asymmetry even more strongly because in the test the exchange rate is shown to react differently in the long term to positive and negative shocks in oil prices. Another major finding was that the speed of adjustment differed over the sample, as the cumulative dynamic multipliers effect highlighted. Research limitations/implications This change in direction and the employment of non-linear technique can be to obtain better insight into the model specification, which the author believes, will not only enhance the findings in the literature but also enhance forecasting and decision-making. Practical implications A practical implication of this change is the possibility that policymakers and participants concerned with exchange rate stability should intervene in the market to alleviate the unfavourable impact of oil price shocks on the exchange rate. Originality/value Addressing this nonlinear dynamic in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate have at least the following two important reasons: asymmetry and regime change are types of nonlinearities that affect the market dynamics, especially, over marked sample period with such financial crises as the global financial crises of 2007, thereby violating the linear models. Adopting an asymmetric cointegration technique permits to incorporate cointegrated positive and negative components of the considered series.

HOW THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AFFECTS ADJUSTMENT TO LARGE OIL PRICE SWINGS IN OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
MAJED S. ALMOZAINI
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Regimes ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fixed Exchange Rate ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The aim of this study is to analyze how oil price shocks affect the economic growth of floating exchange rate regimes and fixed exchange rate regimes in oil-exporting countries with a ratio of oil exports to total exports exceeding 70%. Also, this study seeks to determine what monetary and fiscal policies both regimes apply in order to curb business cycles and reduce inflationary and recessionary gaps. The analytical study uses panel data for the period from 1991 to 2019, covering 24 oil-exporting countries, from the World Economic Outlook (WEO) database and World Bank. The econometric model is estimated by applying a panel VECM to examine the short- and long-term interdependencies in the macroeconomic variables. The results demonstrate that when there is a negative shock to the oil price, the exchange rate of the floating exchange rate regimes depreciates, money supply increases, and government spending decreases. In contrast, the exchange rate of the fixed exchange rate regimes fluctuates slightly; the money supply slightly decreases in the near, medium, and long term; and government spending decreases.

scholarly journals Remodelling Macroeconomic Trilemma and Central Bank Behaviour in Nigeria: A Markov-Switching Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taofeek Olusola AYINDE ◽  
BANKOLE Abiodun S.
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Monetary Authority ◽  
Policy Variable ◽  
Bank Behavior ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Abstract This study investigates macroeconomic trilemma and Central Bank behavior in Nigeria. The period of investigation spans the quarterly period of 1981–2017. Upon the data stability condition of Zivot-Andrew unit-root test with structural breaks, the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression was employed as the technique of analysis. With a validated trilemma hypothesis, the study found that the trilemma constraints hold for the Nigerian economy but at the expense of the autonomy of the monetary authority. Being the policy variable of the Central Bank of Nigeria, the exchange rate was found to follow two regimes of fixed and managed-float regimes. The results also showed that political risk was found insensitive to the regimes of exchange rate while the foreign sector was considered as a moderating factor for the behavior of the monetary authority; irrespective of the exchange rate regime.JEL Classifications: F41, E32, E52, C22, E58.

Exchange-rate volatility and Malaysian-Thai bilateral industry trade flows

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Aftab ◽  
Karim Bux Shah Syed ◽  
Naveed Akhter Katper
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Purpose After the fall of fix exchange rate regime in early 1970s, the nexus between the exchange rate volatility and trade flows has been of a great interest to the policy makers and researchers. Resultantly an extensive literature is available on the topic. However, the research findings are inconclusiveness so far. The purpose of this paper is to examine the exchange-rate volatility and bilateral industry trade link between the two important countries of Southeast Asia, i.e. Malaysia and Thailand. Design/methodology/approach This study employs Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1) to measure exchange rate volatility and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to study the relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade flows. ARDL approach is suitable to accommodate the mix cases (i.e. stationary and first difference stationary). The paper considers 62 Malaysian exporting and 60 Malaysian importing industries with Thailand over the monthly period 2000-2013. Findings Findings suggest the influence of exchange-rate volatility on the trade flows in a limited number of industries. Large industries like instruments and apparatus experience negative influence from exchange-rate volatility. Originality/value Past literature continued to be inconclusiveness on the nexus between exchange-rate volatility and trade flows due to its over-reliance on the aggregated data. Besides, the past studies are more based on quarterly or yearly frequency data. These issues contribute to the aggregation bias. This research focusses on a country bilateral trade pair, using industry level disaggregated monthly data. Such research is rare in Malaysian-Thai bilateral trade context. This study uses a suitable estimation approach and also draws valuable implications.

Nigerian central bank faces short-term debt hazards

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Double Digit

Significance Emefiele has vowed that the CBN will significantly increase financial inclusion, recapitalise banks and help the economy achieve double-digit growth over his second term. However, the significant amount of CBN bills in circulation, a key but costly component of the Bank’s recent exchange rate strategy, poses serious medium-term risks. Impacts The CBN's continued focus on exchange rate stability leaves limited space for reducing interest rates over the short term. Effective foreign currency yields of over 10% are appealing for portfolio investors, but a sudden naira slide would prompt major losses. Significant divestment by foreign portfolio investors may make the CBN resort to temporary capital controls to limit damage to the naira.

scholarly journals Notes on the Brazilian Crisis of 1997-99

2003 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 376-404
Author(s):  
FRANCISCO L. LOPES
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Critical Issue ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
The Real ◽  
Diagonal Band ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Exchange Rate

ABSTRACT This paper deals with the Brazilian crisis of 1997-98 that lead to the exchange rate floating of January 1999. It starts by showing how exchange rate policy evolved since the Real Plan of 1994 and how the exchange rate regime became a critical issue when the crisis started in 1997. It discusses monetary policy during the crisis, the IMF program, the endogenous diagonal band and the decision to float as an alternative to capital controls and default. This five-year drama ended surprisingly well with a benign float, but it is useful to know its details, with the usual mix of economic de- bate, personality clashes and historical fatality.

Iran’s new president has few viable economic options

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
Central Bank Governor

Significance He promised not to borrow any more from the central bank; to consider revising the official exchange rate; and to amend the budget bill to address the mounting deficit, projected to reach USD17bn in the current fiscal year ending March 2022, according to a September report by the Majlis Research Centre. Impacts Further price increases and rising poverty will increase social tensions. The new central bank governor could impose interest cuts justified in terms of sharia-compliance. Austerity measures including reduced capital spending will weigh on slow-recovering economic growth. Some bankrupt government-owned entities will close, resulting in redundancies.

scholarly journals Determination of China’s foreign exchange intervention: evidence from the Yuan/Dollar market

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
He Li ◽  
Zhixiang Yu ◽  
Chuanjie Zhang ◽  
Zhuang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Rmb Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Exchange Intervention ◽  
Basic Model

Purpose The paper aims to investigate the determinants of China’s daily intervention in the foreign exchange market since the 2005 reform aimed at moving the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate regime towards greater flexibility. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses bivariate probit models to test whether China’s intervention decision is driven by three sets of factors, comprising Model I (basic model), Model II and Model III. Findings Evidence from the models suggests that medium-term Chinese interventions tend to be leaning-against-the-wind, whereas long-term interventions are leaning-with-the-wind. Furthermore, by analyzing exchange rate volatility, this paper finds that intervention is used by the Chinese central bank to ensure that there are no big swings in the RMB exchange rate. Originality/value The paper will be of value to other researchers attempting to understand the policy of the central bank and, in particular, the factors that can lead to interventions during periods of financial crisis.

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