Study of the current state of foreign trade of the Russian Federation under the influence of the covid-19 pandemic

Пандемия COVID-19 и ограничения, направленные на ее сдерживание, привели к снижению экономической активности, сокращению мировой торговли, оказали масштабное воздействие на мировую экономику, усилив существующие проблемы. Следствием замедления темпов экономического роста в глобальных масштабах, затронувшим большинство секторов экономики, стало падение спроса на энергоресурсы. Такая тенденция должна была неизбежно отразиться на показателях российской внешней торговли, в структуре которой значительную долю экспорта формирует именно топливно-энергетическое сырье. В данной работе представлен анализ современного состояния и особенностей реализации внешнеторговой деятельности РФ в условиях антиковидных ограничений. Исследована как товарная, так и географическая структура экспорта и импорта Российской Федерации до пандемии и в 2020 г. Дана оценка влиянию пандемии на торговлю услугами. Рассчитаны индексы внутриотраслевой торговли РФ. Полученные данные позволили оценить степень воздействия текущего экономического кризиса на изменение динамики показателей внешней торговли России. Анализ выявил явный дисбаланс в структуре, как экспорта, так и импорта, и серьезную зависимость от конъюнктуры энергетических рынков, сжатие которых привело к существенному сокращению экспортных поступлений. Основываясь на результатах проделанной работы, можно прийти к выводу, что ранее принятые меры, ориентированные на импортозамещение и развитие в РФ высокотехнологичных отраслей, пока явных положительных результатов не дают, по крайней мере, структура внешней торговли их не отражает. Если анализировать показатели внутриотраслевой торговли, то они свидетельствуют о слабой диверсификации экспорта, а также о неконкурентоспособности целых секторов российской экономики. В условиях новых вызовов и увеличения степени неопределенности следует взглянуть на роль РФ в международном разделении труда под новым углом. The COVID-19 pandemic and the restrictions aimed at containing it have led to a decrease in economic activity, a reduction in world trade, and had a massive impact on the global economy, exacerbating existing problems. The slowdown in economic growth on a global scale, which affected most sectors of the economy, resulted in a drop in demand for energy resources. This trend should inevitably affect the indicators of Russian foreign trade, in the structure of which a significant share of exports is formed by fuel and energy raw materials. This paper presents an analysis of the current state and features of the development of foreign trade activities of the Russian Federation in the context of antiquated restrictions. We investigated both the commodity and the geographical structure of exports and imports of the Russian Federation before the pandemic and in 2020. The impact of the pandemic on trade in services is assessed. The indices of intra-industry trade of the Russian Federation were calculated. The data obtained made it possible to assess the degree of impact of the current economic crisis on the change in the dynamics of indicators of Russia’s foreign trade. The analysis revealed a clear imbalance in the structure of both exports and imports, and a serious dependence on the conjuncture of energy markets, the contraction of which led to a significant reduction in export earnings. Based on the results of the work done, we can conclude that the previously adopted measures aimed at import substitution and the development of high-tech industries in the Russian Federation have not yet yielded clear positive results, at least the structure of foreign trade does not reflect them. If we analyze the indicators of intra-industry trade, they indicate a weak diversification of exports, as well as the lack of competitiveness of entire sectors of the Russian economy. In the face of new challenges and an increasing degree of uncertainty, one should look at the role of the Russian Federation in the international division of labor from a new angle.

ANALISIS PERDAGANGAN INTRA INDUSTRI REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (RCEP) PADA PRODUK PERTANIAN

Abstrak Perdagangan intra-industri memainkan peranan penting dalam literatur ekonomi internasional saat ini. Pada tahun 2019, total ekspor Indonesia ke negara-negara anggota RCEP sebesar 61,65% dari total ekspor Indonesia, dan 44% dari total ekspor ke RCEP disumbang oleh sektor pertanian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji tingkat interdependensi Indonesia dengan 14 mitra dagangnya dalam RCEP. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder time series arus perdagangan komoditi pertanian Indonesia dengan negara-negara RCEP di tahun 2010-2019 yang diperoleh dari Trademap. Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah intra-industry trade index. Hasil kajian pola perdagangan Indonesia dan RCEP yang diidentifikasi melalui keterkaitan perdagangan (IIT) menunjukkan komoditas yang memiliki nilai rata-rata IIT tertinggi adalah olahan tepung-tepungan (HS 19). Hal ini menunjukkan jika keterkaitan perdagangan Indonesia RCEP untuk produk tepung-tepungan (HS 19) bersifat dua arah (two-way trade). Sedangkan untuk negara, Malaysia adalah negara yang memiliki keterkaitan perdagangan terkuat dengan Indonesia. Nilai rata-rata IIT Indonesia-RCEP sebesar 19,74 menggambarkan keterkaitan banyak produk pertanian Indonesia dan RCEP yang masih rendah dan tergolong inter-industry trade. Rendahnya nilai IIT ini bisa saja disebabkan masih besarnya perdagangan satu arah di RCEP, dimana Indonesia masih dominan melakukan impor. Oleh karena itu, penting bagi pemerintah untuk lebih meningkatkan ekspor komoditas potensial dengan memberi insentif kepada industri pengolahan produk pertanian melalui keringanan pajak dalam jangka waktu tertentu. Kata kunci: Intra-industry Trade, RCEP, Sektor Pertanian Abstract Intra-industrial trade plays an important role in today's international economic literature. In 2019, Indonesia's total exports to RCEP member countries amounted to 61.65% of Indonesia's total exports, and 44% of total exports to RCEP were contributed by the agricultural sector. This study aims to examine the level of interdependence between Indonesia and its 14 trading partners in RCEP. The data used is secondary data from the time series of trade flows of agricultural commodities between Indonesia and RCEP countries in 2010-2019 which were obtained from Trademap. The data analysis method used is the intra-industry trade index. The results of the study show, if there is a tendency to increase the IIT index of Indonesia with trading partners, it's just that when viewed from each RCEP member, the IIT value still tends to fluctuate. Malaysia is an RCEP member country with the highest IIT score in its agricultural sector, on the other hand, the agricultural sector in Cambodia has the lowest IIT score. Cereal and flour processed commodities (HS 19) were the commodities with the highest IIT, while meat and edible meat scraps (HS 02) were the commodities with the lowest value. Based on the results of the IIT value, it can be seen that many agricultural products are still classified as inter-industry trade. Therefore, it is important for the government to further increase potential commodity exports by providing incentives to processing agricultural industries through tax breaks for a certain period. Keywords: Intra-industry Trade, RCEP, Agricultural Sector JEL Classification: F10, F13, F1

Analysis of Intra-Industry Trade in Agri-Food Products Between Bosnia and Herzegovina and the European Union

Although research of intra-industry trade (IIT) has been intensive in the last several decades, the empirical literature focusing on this phenomenon in the Western Balkans countries remains limited, especially in agricultural sector. Aiming to contribute to the existing literature, the paper analyses patterns and country-specific determinants of IIT in agri-food products between Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and the European Union (EU) during the period of their mutual trade liberalisation (2008-2018). The analysis employs Grubel-Lloyd indices and Greenaway-Hine-Milner methodology for measurement of IIT, and applies an econometric panel data model using a Poisson Pseudo-maximum likelihood approach in order to estimate effects of IIT determinants. The findings suggest that intra-industry agri-food trade of BiH with the EU is of low intensity and mainly of vertical nature, viewed totally and bilaterally. We found significant positive effects of trading countries’ sizes, common border and history on IIT, and negative effects of the geographic distance and differences in agricultural productivity.

DEVELOPMENT OF ESTONIAN TRADE PATTERNS

This paper describes specialisation dynamics in Estonian export using revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and intra-industry trade (IIT) measures. We analyse the development of the distribution of comparative advantage using descriptive statistics and Galtonian regression. Intra-industry trade dynamic is analyzed using a marginal approach. We generally observe a stable specialization structure of Estonian exports in 2006-2011, along with some changes in specialization in the years following that. Based on the analysis of the RSA index and the Galtonian regression, we can make the conclusion about the diversification of the specialisation structure. The most important component of trade expansion in Estonia within the considered time period is the intra-industry trade. In 2016-2020 there was a significant increase in the specialization shift component in trade dynamic, which indicates the structural changes in Estonian exports. The most essential structural changes during the last five years occurred in such commodity sectors as food and live animals, animal and vegetable oils, as well as machinery and transport equipment, which were caused by the increasing share of specialization shift.

R-TIK Digital Literacy towards Indonesian MSMEs (UMKM) Digital Energy of Asia

In accordance with the commitment of the World Summit on the Information Society, it is stated that Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises (SMMEs) are providers of employment for the community. In Indonesia, SMMEs are known as UMKM (Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises Indonesia). The existence of ICT is considered capable of increasing economic growth as well as providing new employment field during the Covid-19 Pandemic. One way to encourage the rise of UMKM) is through the Indonesian R-TIK (Indonesia ICT Volunteers). The purpose of this research is to determine the involvement of R-TIK in the UMKM Go Online program. Whereas the theories and concepts used are the Information Society, Digital Literacy and Empowerment of UMKM. The research method used is a case study, R-TIK with UMKM in Polewali Mandar, West Sulawesi. The results indicate that digital literacy activities carried out by R-TIK together with the Department of Industry, Trade, Cooperatives, and UMKM encouraged the growth of UMKM in Polewali Mandar. The presence of QRen in the UMKM online program has push the pace of the Indonesian economy in the context of realizing Indonesia as a Digital Energy of Asia.