Iran’s new president has few viable economic options

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Spending ◽  
Central Bank Governor

Significance He promised not to borrow any more from the central bank; to consider revising the official exchange rate; and to amend the budget bill to address the mounting deficit, projected to reach USD17bn in the current fiscal year ending March 2022, according to a September report by the Majlis Research Centre. Impacts Further price increases and rising poverty will increase social tensions. The new central bank governor could impose interest cuts justified in terms of sharia-compliance. Austerity measures including reduced capital spending will weigh on slow-recovering economic growth. Some bankrupt government-owned entities will close, resulting in redundancies.

Lower naira will not offset Nigerian recession risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
Multiple Exchange ◽  
Price War ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Subject Pressured naira. Significance The naira has depreciated by approximately 11% on the parallel market since the Saudi-Russia oil price war began, which dashed hopes of OPEC+ supply curbs to stem the price rout amid the escalating COVID-19 pandemic. This has hampered the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) ability to support the multiple exchange rate regime, prompting a sharp devaluation of the official exchange rate. Impacts The naira’s devaluation will accelerate rising inflationary pressures from the closure of Nigeria’s land borders last year. The CBN could impose damaging capital controls once more if the exchange rate falls further towards 500:1. With low funds in the oil savings fund, the authorities will likely limit their intervention against COVID-19 to soft loans from the CBN.

Lebanon’s possible new government would still struggle

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
Economic Collapse ◽  
Central Bank Governor ◽  
The Eu

Significance This comes as the worsening economic crisis today caused Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh to end fuel subsidies, abolishing a preferential exchange rate for imports. The EU is also threatening recalcitrant leaders with sanctions. Impacts It remains possible that Aoun and his allies in Shia movement Hezbollah may instead opt to retain the caretaker government of Hassan Diab. The reforms required for large structural loans will not happen with current elites in charge, as they would endanger patronage networks. Spontaneous riots and violence are increasingly likely as the economic collapse continues.

Australian central bank holds rate as growth slips

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.

scholarly journals Financial and economic stability as ‘two sides of a coin’

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 327-353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ali Nasir ◽  
Mushtaq Ahmad ◽  
Ferhan Ahmad ◽  
Junjie Wu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
Stability And Instability

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a different context for considering issues of financial stability and instability, with reference to economic growth and price stability in particular. Design/methodology/approach – This paper pursued an empirical exploration of six pillars of financial stability, based on a data set for the UK extending from 1985 (Q1) to 2008 (Q2), through the construction of a vector error correction model, including an impulse response function analysis. Findings – The findings show a strong association between the financial and economic stability even in a non-crisis regime. This includes, for example, a strong association exists between the stock market and the real economy; exchange rate appreciation may not provide for long-term real economic growth; inflation does not contribute to real economic growth, both the sensitivity of the economy to yields and a significant lag in transitional effects from financial markets to the real sector; a positive role of credit creation within a non-crisis regime; exchange rate appreciation affects purchasing power; and potential points of linkage between sovereign debt activity and general price levels. Research limitations/implications – The findings should be considered in the context of a concept of the economy as fundamentally dynamic and subject to complex cumulative processes. Practical implications – The findings indicate there is a role for state oversight and intervention within a non-crisis regime based on the complexity of possible interactions that may undermine financial and price stability, with consequences for their association with economic growth. Originality/value – The study provides a new perspective for considering issues of financial stability and instability.

Libya's economic track could undo political progress

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Commander ◽  
Central Bank Governor ◽  
Business Ties

Significance Unifying the budget would in effect guarantee funding to eastern Libya for the year -- a prospect unpalatable to western Libyans who suffered from eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar’s assault on Tripoli in 2019-20. However, the dialogue is also essential to unify the country and begin rebuilding. Impacts Turkey is banking on the incoming government to enhance business ties. If a new central bank governor is more friendly to Egypt, or Cyrenaica, then Turkey could lose privileges and find new trade barriers. President Mohamed Mnefi will aim to grow his own constituency in Cyrenaica, opposing Haftar and Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh.

scholarly journals Investigating Finance-Growth Nexus: Further Evidence from Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeola Yahya Oyebowale ◽  
Noah Kofi Karley
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Financial Sector Development

This study investigates the influence of financial sector development on economic growth in Nigeria during the period 1982 to 2015. As such, the study obtained annual secondary data from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletins and World Bank financial database. The empirical model for this study examines growth in savings, growth in exchange rate, growth in government expenditure, growth in stock market capitalization, growth in credit to private sector, growth in gross capital formation, growth in trade openness and growth in broad money on economic growth in Nigeria. The multiple regression output reveals that growth in government expenditure and growth in gross capital formation are statistically significant on economic growth in Nigeria at 1% and 10% respectively under the period under investigation while other regressors in the model prove to be statistically insignificant. VAR test shows that there is considerable short-run causality running from lags of regressors to economic growth in Nigeria except for lag 1 of growth in exchange rate and lag 2 of growth in credit to private sector. The granger causality test reveals the existence of bi-directional causality between financial sector development and economic growth in Nigeria during the period under investigation. Hence, this study supports the ‘feedback hypothesis’ view on finance-growth. Based on these empirical results, this study recommends effective channeling of funds to the private sector and autonomy of the Central Bank of Nigeria in the use of monetary policy tools.

Argentine elections will drive monetary expansion

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Close Monitoring ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Nominal Anchor ◽  
Monetary Policy Framework

Subject The Central Bank's 2015 monetary programme. Significance The Central Bank's (BCRA) 2015 monetary programme indicates that the main features of the current monetary policy framework -- characterised by an expansionary bias, foreign exchange controls and close monitoring of the informal exchange market -- will continue this year. Impacts The government will prioritise exchange rate stability, at the expense of economic activity. The BCRA will continue using the official exchange rate as a nominal anchor. Foreign exchange controls may be extended to discourage devaluation expectations and to protect international reserves.

US states could weather a mild recession

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Period ◽  
Sports Betting ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us States ◽  
Economic Downturns ◽  
Medicaid Spending

Significance If there is a recession, it will affect both the country at large and its constituent 50 states. US states are not permitted to run budget deficits, and this makes them vulnerable to economic downturns. Some commentators see a recession within two years and if so, the next fiscal year (October-September) could possibly be the last year of the current economic growth period. Impacts Legalisation of marijuana will be viewed by some states as a path to new revenues and spending. Some states will seek more revenue from sports betting and casinos, but both markets could constrain each other. Medicaid spending is growing, and it will consume a larger share of states’ budgets.

Party fractures will hinder Mozambique peace talks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
External Audit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
Legislative Changes ◽  
Central Bank Governor

Significance Talks stalled on August 22 when both sides rejected the mediators' peace proposal. Since then, government forces have overrun a RENAMO base in the central Morrumbala district. Impacts Drought in the three southern provinces could render 1.8 million people dependent on humanitarian aid. An influx of refugees into Zimbabwe will pressure local resources, exacerbating the already dire conditions there. The appointment of a former IMF official as central bank governor may help to smooth relations with multilateral creditors. Maputo will resist calls for an external audit of its 'secret' loans since this may reveal damaging details of the military's finances. Devolution of greater powers to provinces would involve complex legislative changes, which many FRELIMO lawmakers would oppose.

Mexico’s 2020 budget looks highly optimistic

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Limited Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Budget ◽  
National Economic

Significance The package comprises the national budget and revenue legislation, as well as key domestic and international macroeconomic assumptions and projections. Impacts Even if GDP growth remains poor, fiscal loosening is unlikely. The central bank may lower interest rates further to help boost the economy, but the effect of a monetary push would be relatively minor. Major projects such as the Maya Train may have some regional impact but will have a limited effect on national economic growth. Legislators may increase the expected oil price for 2020 to boost spending in some areas without increasing the fiscal deficit target.

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