Support for Scottish independence is growing stronger

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Sustained Increase

Significance For the first time, there is a sustained increase in support for Scottish independence. The main reasons include dislike of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet north of the border, the UK government’s pursuit of a ‘hard’ Brexit and questions about its response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts Soaring Scottish unemployment when the UK furlough schemes end would undermine London’s claim to be protecting Scottish jobs. Rising support for Scottish independence could prompt the UK government to seek a closer trade agreement with the EU. The UK government will be unable to conceal the economic impacts of Brexit under the economic fallout of COVID-19. A Scottish vote for independence would put huge pressure on the UK government to resign and call early elections.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

A backstop solution to Brexit has some potential

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Special Treatment ◽  
Northern Irish ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject Brexit negotiations. Significance A Northern Ireland-specific agreement is now the best hope for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to deliver Brexit by October 31 with a deal. While Johnson would likely accept alignment of Northern Ireland with EU rules if this meant replacing the UK-wide backstop, convincing his Northern Irish allies in the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) remains the key challenge. Impacts Delivering Brexit with a deal will increase the prospects for a UK-US free trade agreement. A risk of a Northern Ireland backstop is that it will invite pressure from Scottish nationalists, who would want similar special treatment. The EU is likely to accept an Article 50 extension request if an election or referendum is due to take place.

UK agriculture will pursue new markets post-Brexit

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Wine Industry ◽  
Agricultural Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Wine Experts ◽  
Food And Drink ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject The impact of Brexit on the UK agricultural and food and drink sectors. Significance Agriculture and the food and drink sector will be among those industries most affected by Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to pursue a ‘hard’ Brexit. It is uncertain to what extent domestic agricultural policies will replace the support and funding mechanisms of the EU. The food and drink sector will have to adjust to the possibility of future tariffs. Impacts Scottish independence would hit the drink sector, with Scotch whisky alone accounting for almost one-quarter of UK food and drink exports. The burgeoning UK wine industry could be damaged if the informal knowledge transfer from French wine experts slows down. The United Kingdom and the EU will need to cooperate on the issue of access arrangements for fishing.

UK's Cameron likely to go for EU referendum in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Dutch Government ◽  
German Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Official Position ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's preferred timetable for the UK referendum on EU membership. Significance The EU membership referendum will be a major event in both EU and UK political and commercial life. Prime Minister David Cameron's official position is that the poll could take place any time before end-2017. He is less concerned about the likely outcome of the referendum, which he is confident will produce an 'in' result, than about achieving a margin in favour of membership that decisively settles the question and minimises the damage to the Conservative Party arising from the process. Impacts The most likely referendum date is September 15, 2016. This timetable would make the key renegotiation period the first half of 2016, when the sympathetic Dutch government chairs the EU Council. The German government would also prefer the UK referendum to be dealt with relatively quickly.

Future of European fracking hinges on English projects

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Shale Gas ◽  
Significant Contribution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Scottish Parliament ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Exploration And Development

Subject Shale gas in Europe. Significance Companies in England are preparing to recommence fracking at several sites with the enthusiastic support of the UK government. However, the Scottish Parliament on October 24 voted to ban fracking, underpinning the opposition to the exploration and development of shale gas in Europe. Impacts The Scottish government’s decision may damage its relationship with some of the country’s few remaining industrial players, notably INEOS. Even if English projects are successful, it will take years for the industry to make a significant contribution to UK energy needs. The EU could take greater responsibility for regulating shale gas development after Brexit.

EU-UK Brexit is unlikely to be stopped

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Ongoing Debate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance This comes after the Telegraph reported last week that Soros had donated 400,000 pounds to the group. There is an ongoing debate as to whether the United Kingdom will in fact leave the EU. Central to it is the question of whether the UK government can unilaterally revoke its decision to trigger Article 50 in March 2017. Impacts Voters would be less likely to support the revocation of Article 50 if the Council imposed conditions that made membership less attractive. Revoking Article 50 and remaining in the EU would reduce damage to the UK economy. If Article 50 is revocable, Eurosceptic governments could be tempted to use the prospect of triggering it as leverage in EU negotiations.

Early UK vote is set to bolster May’s mandate

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
Scottish Independence

Significance This move came as a surprise, as the prime minister had previously repeatedly denied that she was even contemplating such a step. Impacts A larger Conservative majority could leave May less dependent on backbench hardcore Brexiteers, possibly giving her more flexibility. Delaying the following general election until 2022 buys May time for a transitional agreement and a cliff-edge exit becomes less likely. The prospect of a Conservative UK government ruling with an increased majority till 2022 will bolster support for Scottish independence. The election will delay the start of the Brexit negotiations by one month.

Prospects for a close EU-UK trade deal are not good

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Limited Period ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK-EU trade talks. Significance The United Kingdom will leave the EU on January 31, 2020, but will abide by EU rules as part of the transition period, which runs to December 31, 2020. During this limited period of time, London and Brussels will seek to negotiate a permanent trading relationship. While the transition deadline can be extended, the UK government has committed not to seek an extension. Impacts The impact of no trade deal or a 'thin' one may force the UK government to increase taxes in order to meet spending pledges. UK financial services will rely on an equivalence deal with the EU; London hopes to agree this by mid-2020. The EU’s future trade policy will focus on having stronger sanction powers as well as legal ones for those that unfairly undercut EU firms.

Unstable politics may make trade deals uncertain

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Ideological Divergence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
The Eu

Subject Politics and trade talks. Significance Understanding the factors that determine how long trade negotiations take will help businesses navigate the uncertainty, as the UK government prepares to negotiate trade agreements once it leaves the EU. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the EU took seven years to finalise. Less comprehensive renegotiations of international agreements can be shorter, including the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, which took less than two years. Impacts UK sectors highly exposed to the EU or United States, including automotive and financial services, face prolonged investment uncertainty. Timing of national elections, lobbying and the ideological divergence between trade partners will determine post-Brexit trade deal talks. Continued polarisation of major economies' electorates will delay or stop other global deals, including on foreign aid and climate change.

Uranium price recovery has limited upside

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time ◽  
Nuclear Group ◽  
Procurement Programme ◽  
The Eu

Subject Uranium prices and nuclear power. Significance The price of uranium breached 25 dollars per pound this month for the first time since last August. Boosted by Kazakhstan, the source of 41% of global uranium supplies, announcing last month that it will reduce production by 10% in 2017, the metal's price has been gradually recovering from last November's twelve-year low of 18 dollars per pound. However, the market remains oversupplied. Impacts Brexit may leave the UK nuclear sector without a regulator and short of fuel (21% of UK electricity generation is nuclear). Vietnam has abandoned its long-delayed plan to build its first nuclear power plant. South Africa has started a procurement programme to add 9.6 gigawatts of nuclear capacity. The EU has approved the 4.5-billion-euro (4.8-billion-dollar) restructuring plan of the French nuclear group Areva.

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