Future of European fracking hinges on English projects

Subject Shale gas in Europe. Significance Companies in England are preparing to recommence fracking at several sites with the enthusiastic support of the UK government. However, the Scottish Parliament on October 24 voted to ban fracking, underpinning the opposition to the exploration and development of shale gas in Europe. Impacts The Scottish government’s decision may damage its relationship with some of the country’s few remaining industrial players, notably INEOS. Even if English projects are successful, it will take years for the industry to make a significant contribution to UK energy needs. The EU could take greater responsibility for regulating shale gas development after Brexit.

Significance This comes after the Telegraph reported last week that Soros had donated 400,000 pounds to the group. There is an ongoing debate as to whether the United Kingdom will in fact leave the EU. Central to it is the question of whether the UK government can unilaterally revoke its decision to trigger Article 50 in March 2017. Impacts Voters would be less likely to support the revocation of Article 50 if the Council imposed conditions that made membership less attractive. Revoking Article 50 and remaining in the EU would reduce damage to the UK economy. If Article 50 is revocable, Eurosceptic governments could be tempted to use the prospect of triggering it as leverage in EU negotiations.


Significance For the first time, there is a sustained increase in support for Scottish independence. The main reasons include dislike of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet north of the border, the UK government’s pursuit of a ‘hard’ Brexit and questions about its response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts Soaring Scottish unemployment when the UK furlough schemes end would undermine London’s claim to be protecting Scottish jobs. Rising support for Scottish independence could prompt the UK government to seek a closer trade agreement with the EU. The UK government will be unable to conceal the economic impacts of Brexit under the economic fallout of COVID-19. A Scottish vote for independence would put huge pressure on the UK government to resign and call early elections.


Subject UK-EU trade talks. Significance The United Kingdom will leave the EU on January 31, 2020, but will abide by EU rules as part of the transition period, which runs to December 31, 2020. During this limited period of time, London and Brussels will seek to negotiate a permanent trading relationship. While the transition deadline can be extended, the UK government has committed not to seek an extension. Impacts The impact of no trade deal or a 'thin' one may force the UK government to increase taxes in order to meet spending pledges. UK financial services will rely on an equivalence deal with the EU; London hopes to agree this by mid-2020. The EU’s future trade policy will focus on having stronger sanction powers as well as legal ones for those that unfairly undercut EU firms.


Significance Freed from the EU’s control, London insists, the United Kingdom could become a hub for new technologies. To this end, besides setting out some other objectives, it has prepared a ten-year strategy to foster innovation in artificial intelligence (AI) systems. Impacts UK plans to adapt GDPR to favour business and innovation will be opposed by consumer and privacy activists, possibly in courts. Regulatory divergence with the EU in critical sectors such as the digital economy will hurt UK-EU ties. The UK government may struggle to benefit from partnerships developed in the EU-US Trade and Technology Council.


2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 352-361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Jones ◽  
David Hillier ◽  
Daphne Comfort

Purpose – Large-scale shale gas reserves have recently been identified under many parts of the UK and development pressure for detailed exploration and possibly the exploitation of these reserves by hydraulic fracturing, popularly described as fracking is growing rapidly and seems to have UK Government support. With this in mind the purpose of this paper is to offer a general review of the possible development of shale gas reserves by fracking within the UK and to explore a number of the planning and property issues associated with such development. Design/methodology/approach – The briefing note begins with an outline of the characteristics of shale oil and the fracking process and of the initial developments within the UK and discusses some of the planning and property issues associated with such developments. The note is based upon information drawn from the internet sources, principally national and local governments, business organisations and environmental and community pressure groups and on visits to a small number of sites of exploratory fracking. Findings – The note reveals that planning applications for exploratory and production fracking will be determined at local authority level rather as Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects determined by the Secretary of State. In determining planning applications local authorities have received planning guidance from the UK Government and will need to consider a wide range of environmental factors but some critics suggest that the guidance is not comprehensive and that it is weighted in favour of granting permission. A number of property issues are also identified possible effects of fracking on property prices, the availability of mortgages and the insurance of properties. Originality/value – This paper provides an accessible review of the development of shale gas resources by fracking within the UK and as such it will be of value to planners, developers, land and property professionals and students.


Subject Data protection and Brexit. Significance On August 7 the UK government announced plans to unveil by year-end a Data Protection Bill to transfer into UK law the EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), which takes effect on May 25, 2018. Impacts Large UK-based businesses have been preparing for the GDPR, but smaller ones have not and are unlikely to be compliant by the deadline. To reduce the risk to business, the UK government may seek to include GDPR compliance in any Brexit transition agreement. Although perfect ‘cyber resilience’ is impossible, demand for such services will increase.


Significance Johnson's cabinet overhaul is the largest in decades, replacing 17 cabinet ministers from the previous government mostly with individuals who support Johnson’s hard-line stance on Brexit. Impacts Brussels could offer London a ‘Northern Ireland only’ backstop, but this will be rejected by the UK government. The government will likely pass legislation to protect EU citizens’ rights in the United Kingdom if there is a no-deal Brexit. The EU will only grant another extension if a deal is almost agreed, or if there is a UK general election or second Brexit referendum.


Significance With the 2014 Scottish independence referendum and 2015 UK general election behind them, parties in Scotland are starting to focus on the May 2016 Scottish Parliament elections. Impacts The Conservatives' Scottish Parliament vote share is likely to rise at Labour's expense, through an appeal to hardcore unionists. In the UK EU membership referendum, the SNP will run its own campaign against leaving the EU ('Brexit'). A UK vote for Brexit, with Scotland voting for continued EU membership, would trigger a second independence referendum. The likely renewal of the Scotland-based UK Trident nuclear system, which the SNP opposes, could also be a pretext for a second referendum. Given the 2014 'no' vote, a second Scottish referendum could be more constitutionally controversial than the first.


Significance The role for the ECJ after Brexit will be a key sticking point as negotiations between London and Brussels progress. Impacts Fragmentation in regulatory standards would make it much harder for the United Kingdom to trade with the EU. The dissonant position adopted by the UK government increases the risk of delay, and ultimately of failing to secure a deal. Unless London settles on stable guidance for interpretation of EU law post-Brexit, uncertainty for firms, investors and citizens will rise.


Significance The main impacts of Brexit will be new tariff and non-tariff barriers, a new immigration regime that will favour medium- and high-skilled people from outside the EU, the ability to strike new trade deals, and greater regulatory flexibility. Impacts The United Kingdom’s domestic tourism industry could benefit as travelling to the EU will become more expensive. By “taking back control” of state aid, the UK government will come under greater and more sustained pressure to subsidise companies. Sectors adversely affected by the new immigration plans will have to invest strongly in new recruitment methods.


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