UK's Cameron likely to go for EU referendum in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Dutch Government ◽  
German Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Official Position ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's preferred timetable for the UK referendum on EU membership. Significance The EU membership referendum will be a major event in both EU and UK political and commercial life. Prime Minister David Cameron's official position is that the poll could take place any time before end-2017. He is less concerned about the likely outcome of the referendum, which he is confident will produce an 'in' result, than about achieving a margin in favour of membership that decisively settles the question and minimises the damage to the Conservative Party arising from the process. Impacts The most likely referendum date is September 15, 2016. This timetable would make the key renegotiation period the first half of 2016, when the sympathetic Dutch government chairs the EU Council. The German government would also prefer the UK referendum to be dealt with relatively quickly.

EU-UK deal allows Cameron to campaign against Brexit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
David Cameron ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.

British General Elections Since 1964

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Denver ◽  
Mark Garnett
Keyword(s):  
New Media ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
British Politics ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Electoral Campaigns ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

This book provides a concise account of general elections during more than five tumultuous decades in British politics. Beginning in 1964, when partisan allegiances in the UK were relatively stable, it ends in 2019 when the volatility of voters was illustrated by the success of Conservative Party candidates in constituencies which had previously been ‘safe’ for Labour. The book describes the changing influences on voting behaviour—from the early 1960s, when allegiances were largely based on social class, to the 2020s when factors such as impressions of party leaders and new media outlets such as Facebook seem far more important. The electoral contests of these years produced dramatic results, ranging from Labour’s landslide victory in 1997 to the three closely fought battles of 2010, 2015, and 2017. These elections have taken place against a background of concern arising from the low turnout of voters, reaching its nadir in 2001 when less than 60 per cent of the electorate participated. Yet, in recent years, competition for the support of volatile voters has been complicated by issues like devolution to Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland—not to mention the question of EU membership, which cut across long-established party lines and has helped to raise political passions to unprecedented levels. Apart from its analysis of electoral campaigns and outcomes, the book describes the most relevant developments between elections (including the EU referendum of 2016) which help to explain the dilemmas facing the system of liberal democracy in contemporary Britain.

Some Cameron demands will meet EU resistance

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Special Treatment ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance Cameron is gauging his counterparts' positions before presenting his reform agenda at the June 25-26 EU summit. He seeks the other EU states' support for a package of reforms that will enable him to claim that he has secured a better deal for the United Kingdom in the EU, and thus campaign for an 'in' vote in the EU membership referendum he has promised by end-2017. Cameron is seeking to build backing for some reforms that would apply across the EU, rather than only seek special treatment for the United Kingdom. However, some of the reforms he has mooted are unacceptable to many other EU states. Impacts The greatest impact of the reforms that Cameron secures could be on the scale of the split in the Conservative Party over EU membership. Some of Cameron's reforms could bring important changes across the bloc, as well as set precedents for other member states. The UK renegotiation will generate bargaining between member states that will affect their negotiation of other issues.

UK prime minister will likely remain in power for now

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Culture Wars ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The Eu

Significance As many as a dozen lockdown parties are now alleged to have been held at Downing Street, significantly damaging Johnson’s support among the public and his Conservative Party. His position as party leader and prime minister is gravely threatened. Impacts Johnson’s domestic troubles, coupled with rising economic concerns, increase the chance of an agreement with the EU over Northern Ireland. Disillusionment with Johnson, opposition to net-zero and culture wars open the door for Nigel Farage’s Reform Party to revive its appeal. Rising inflation threatens to undermine consumer confidence and slow the economic recovery over the coming year.

Next Dutch government will likely be ‘greener’

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Dutch Government ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Targets ◽  
A Priority ◽  
The Eu

Significance Government formation should have been relatively straightforward but a series of political controversies have damaged VVD leader and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s credibility with the CU and some opposition parties. Impacts The collective rise of the far-right vote means the far right will continue to worry centrist parties and thus influence government policy. Investment in nuclear energy to meet climate targets is unlikely to be a priority for the new government. Dutch influence in the EU could grow with the departure of Merkel in September, and Macron’s focus on the 2022 election.

'Juncker Plan' could mean EU investment bulge

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Commission ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
High Grade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Investment Plan ◽  
Eu Referendum ◽  
Commission President ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The possible economic impact of the EU investment plan (the 'Juncker Plan'). Significance The EU investment plan launched by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker just over a year ago has made a slow start. This will encourage doubts that have existed since the scheme's inception about its operation and likely impact. Impacts Even by 2020, the EU economy will still probably require every effort to boost growth and make up for lost investment. Given continuing strong demand for high-grade bonds and equity investments, it should be possible to achieve the fundraising target. The plan could become a vehicle for Chinese investment into the EU: China is talking of 5-10 billion euros in future investments. The geographical distribution of funded projects could be politically sensitive within the EU. The plan could come under scrutiny during the UK EU referendum campaign; UK projects may come too late to have an impact before the vote.

Disarray will cloud start of EU-UK Brexit talks

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
Implementing Strategies ◽  
The Eu

Significance The process has been plunged into further uncertainty by the outcome of the June 8 UK general election, which has sparked renewed debate about what kind of Brexit the United Kingdom wants and what kind of future economic relationship with the EU it should seek to negotiate. Impacts The UK government’s weakness is a cause for concern elsewhere in the EU, raising fears that it may not be able to compromise on key issues. Many businesses will begin implementing strategies for dealing with Brexit early next year, before knowing the outcome of the negotiations. Pressure for a lengthy transition period will continue to build. The political turmoil and slowing economic growth in the United Kingdom may increase support for EU membership elsewhere in the bloc.

Support for Scottish independence is growing stronger

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
Scottish Independence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Sustained Increase

Significance For the first time, there is a sustained increase in support for Scottish independence. The main reasons include dislike of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet north of the border, the UK government’s pursuit of a ‘hard’ Brexit and questions about its response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts Soaring Scottish unemployment when the UK furlough schemes end would undermine London’s claim to be protecting Scottish jobs. Rising support for Scottish independence could prompt the UK government to seek a closer trade agreement with the EU. The UK government will be unable to conceal the economic impacts of Brexit under the economic fallout of COVID-19. A Scottish vote for independence would put huge pressure on the UK government to resign and call early elections.

'Brexit' fallout could hit EU financial assets widely

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Run Up ◽  
High Yields ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject The potential fallout from 'Brexit' on both UK and EU-wide financial assets. Significance In the run-up to the June 23 referendum on the United Kingdom's EU membership, the 'Brexit' risk has been weighing on UK confidence and investment. The reaction in financial markets has been more benign, with the pound rising by 3.6% against the dollar since end-February and a 54-basis-point (bp) year-to-date fall in the ten-year gilts yield. The absence of a 'Brexit premium' suggests investors may be underpricing both the UK-specific and EU-wide risks associated with a UK exit from the EU at a time of heightened market volatility. Impacts UK government bonds, along with their US equivalents, will remain attractive to investors because of their relatively high yields. Meanwhile, euro-area and Japanese bonds, whose yields are negative or slightly positive at best, will remain unattractive. The prolonged uncertainty during the post-referendum renegotiations could shave 1.0-1.5 pp off UK GDP growth by end-2017. The wide UK current account deficit and the country's reliance on foreign capital underscore the risks associated with Brexit.

May is unlikely to form a majority for her Brexit plan

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
House Of Commons ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Eu

Significance The rocky passage of both has laid out Prime Minister Theresa May’s key Brexit dilemma: she will struggle to secure a majority in the House of Commons for her eventual deal with the EU. Impacts The parliamentary victories have secured May's short-term future. There is a majority against no deal in parliament; its likelihood depends on whether MPs can find a route to assert this majority. The likelihood of other outcomes, such as a general election or a further referendum on EU membership before March 29, 2019, has increased.

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