Guinea's Conde may exploit opposition poll divisions

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Main Concern ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Unrest ◽  
International Standing

Significance Despite the crackdown, FNDC-led protests are likely to intensify to try to disrupt the October 18 poll. However, Conde’s main concern is not the recurring protests, but rather ensuring a first-round victory. Impacts Conde’s regional and international standing will be further damaged after the polls. Conde’s re-election would polarise the country and risk intensified protests and political instability. Increased political unrest raises the risk of disruption to the mining and agriculture sectors, hampering economic recovery.

Ugandan authorities may miss mark in Bobi Wine affair

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
International Human Rights ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Unrest ◽  
International Standing ◽  
International Human

Significance As part of his bail conditions, Wine is barred from participating in further protests. Authorities likely hope this will constrain Wine’s activism, but they have failed on this front before. Moreover, they appear to be treating the symptom rather than the cause of rising anti-government sentiment. Impacts Wine’s treatment will further hurt the government’s international standing; it is already widely seen as coercive and patrimonial. Wine’s legal team is led by prominent international human rights lawyer Robert Amsterdam, who will ensure global publicity for his case. Rising domestic political unrest, combined with ongoing tensions with Rwanda, will also hamper Uganda’s fragile economic recovery.

Party divisions will overshadow Angola elections

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Military Veterans ◽  
General Election ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Election Meddling

Significance The court ruled that Costa Junior had not relinquished his Portuguese nationality at the time of his election, as the constitution mandates. This has sparked a political crisis in the run-up to next year’s general election. Impacts Accusations of election meddling could compromise President Joao Lourenco’s international reformist credentials. Protests could become more violent and political instability could become an obstacle to economic recovery. Lourenco’s authority within the MPLA may be challenged from the inside, as military veterans see him as too weak to control UNITA.

Germany’s coalition faces division on several fronts

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Public Image ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strong Emphasis ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
Policy Decision Making ◽  
The Eu

Significance The three parties successfully negotiated a coalition agreement with a strong emphasis on modernising Germany’s economy. Throughout the negotiations, the parties presented a public image of stability and harmony, yet several divisive issues will test the new government's stability and effectiveness. Impacts The composition of the new government will make it harder for Berlin to win approval for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will seek to prioritise more unity at the EU level when it comes to foreign policy decision-making. The spread of the Omicron variant will slow economic recovery and potentially delay the transition to a greener economy.

Prospects for Turkey to end-2021

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Unemployment ◽  
First Time

Subject Prospects for Turkey to end-2021. Significance Deepening popular discontent, a growing opposition bloc and internal rivalries have put the ruling coalition on the back foot for the first time, but also made it more unpredictable. The economic recovery has continued, notwithstanding policy tightening, but the lira has been weak and inflation high. Unemployment is a significant concern.

Water woes will drag on economic recovery in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type

Headline BRAZIL: Water woes will drag on economic recovery

Alberta's economic woes have political consequences

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Oil Sands ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Structural Unemployment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Remaining Oil ◽  
Keystone Xl

Significance With steep reductions in public spending affecting education and social programmes, the budget signals an era of austerity in what had been Canada’s wealthiest province. One consequence is likely to be greater tension between the provincial government and the federal government in Ottawa. Impacts Major international funds will continue to divest from the oil sands sector, further depressing output as subsidies are cut. Remaining oil sands production will be increasingly automated, meaning that structural unemployment will persist. Ottawa’s refusal to contest US cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline has raised tensions with the UCP government in Edmonton. The national broad-based economic recovery expected this year will largely bypass Alberta.

Florida voters react to Biden's Caribbean policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Family Connections ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Government

Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.

Multiple crises mean future instability in Madagascar

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Humanitarian Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
Inner Circle

Significance Rajoelina faces a wide array of challenges as he looks towards the final two years of his current presidential term. These include severe tensions within his inner circle, a substantial economic crisis, problems linked to his management of the COVID-19 pandemic, and a major humanitarian crisis. Impacts Increasing domestic and international pressure will lead to an opening of borders, possibly by October. The planned vaccine campaign will not prevent a new wave of COVID-19 infections. Economic recovery will be slow.

Skills shortage may hit Australia's post-COVID growth

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
General Election ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
General Increase ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Skills Shortage ◽  
Key Industries ◽  
Skills Shortages

Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.

Pandemic poses risks to economic recovery in Mexico

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type

Headline MEXICO: Pandemic poses risks to economic recovery

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