Party divisions will overshadow Angola elections

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Military Veterans ◽  
General Election ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Election Meddling

Significance The court ruled that Costa Junior had not relinquished his Portuguese nationality at the time of his election, as the constitution mandates. This has sparked a political crisis in the run-up to next year’s general election. Impacts Accusations of election meddling could compromise President Joao Lourenco’s international reformist credentials. Protests could become more violent and political instability could become an obstacle to economic recovery. Lourenco’s authority within the MPLA may be challenged from the inside, as military veterans see him as too weak to control UNITA.

Norway's government drives post-oil diversification

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
General Election ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Up

Subject Norway's economy. Significance Even as the global price for oil recovers slowly, Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg's government hopes to encourage Norway to transition to a post-petroleum economy. The main contours of the 2017 budget suggest that the Norwegian economy has turned two significant corners: the prognosis for economic recovery is promising, and the Norwegian economy will slowly transition to a broader base. Impacts Spending rules for the GPFG could be tightened next spring. The expansive budget may help Solberg's Conservative Party win back votes in the run-up to the 2017 general election. The Christian Democrats could emerge as kingmakers from the 2017 election and possibly facilitate a centre-left coalition.

Spain's election could revive a political crisis

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Significant Influence ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Nationalist Parties

Subject Spain's upcoming general election. Significance Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has called a snap election for April 28, following the rejection of his budget by right-wing opposition and Catalan nationalist parties. The election comes as twelve of Catalonia’s pro-independence leaders face high-profile public trials for their involvement in the unconstitutional referendum on Catalan independence in 2017. Impacts Political instability is unlikely to have a significant influence on the economy in the near term. A right-wing government would take a more hostile approach to immigration. It is doubtful that the trials will convert many pro-Spanish Catalans to support independence.

Skills shortage may hit Australia's post-COVID growth

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
General Election ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
General Increase ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Skills Shortage ◽  
Key Industries ◽  
Skills Shortages

Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.

Immigration will threaten the unity of Denmark's left

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
General Election ◽  
Social Democrat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Campaign Strategy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Realignment

Subject Denmark's immigration impact. Significance Denmark's opposition Social Democrat party has adopted a hardened stance on immigration, reflected by its support for several populist policies implemented by the government. The party will use its toughening position on immigration as a campaign strategy ahead of Denmark's general election in 2019. Impacts Increased competition over the leadership of the incumbent Venstre party could undermine its chances of retaining power. A Social Democrat government backed by the DPP would mark an unprecedented political realignment. A government involving the DPP would be marked by popular protests and political instability.

Bosnia’s general election sets stage for anarchy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Eu

Subject Bosnia’s election aftermath. Significance Political parties must now start talks to form coalitions at various levels after elections that strengthened hard-line nationalists. A dispute over the Croat seat in the state presidency has deepened the rift between Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims) and Croats, further complicating government formation. Impacts Lacking its upper parliamentary chamber, the Federation be unable to pass the 2019 budget, signalling the start of institutional collapse. Little may be expected from the EU in the deepening political crisis. Continuing chaos will boost emigration, especially among the young and educated.

Political crisis to hinder Nicaragua economic recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vulnerable Communities ◽  
Sustained Recovery

Significance However, the prospects of a sustained recovery are clouded by fiscal weakness, a precarious balance-of-payments position, a deteriorating business environment and the threat of international sanctions on the financial sector. The country's most vulnerable communities are yet to recover from the damage wrought by Hurricanes Eta and Iota. Impacts An accommodative monetary policy will be maintained in an effort to support economic recovery. Ortega’s control over the judiciary will heighten legal uncertainty and erode the ability of investors to enforce contracts. The prolonged depreciation of the Cordoba will increase servicing costs of public and private dollar-denominated debts. Refugee outflows will intensify after November’s elections, with knock-on effects for the rest of the region.

Vested interests may block urgent tax reform in Jordan

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
The Government

Significance It also looked at government-proposed amendments to another law aiming to reduce the scope for tax evasion in the Aqaba Special Economic Zone. Recent developments including the pandemic, an April political crisis between King Abdullah and his half-brother Prince Hamzah and now the Gaza conflict have highlighted popular dissatisfaction driven by economic grievances. Impacts Tourism should start to recover in late 2021, but revenue is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024 at the earliest. Forecast economic growth of 2-3% over the next four years leaves little scope for improvement in living standards. Without a strong economic recovery, the government will struggle to bring down an unemployment rate that has reached 24%.

Guinea's Conde may exploit opposition poll divisions

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Main Concern ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Unrest ◽  
International Standing

Significance Despite the crackdown, FNDC-led protests are likely to intensify to try to disrupt the October 18 poll. However, Conde’s main concern is not the recurring protests, but rather ensuring a first-round victory. Impacts Conde’s regional and international standing will be further damaged after the polls. Conde’s re-election would polarise the country and risk intensified protests and political instability. Increased political unrest raises the risk of disruption to the mining and agriculture sectors, hampering economic recovery.

Delayed Congolese election will prompt a crisis

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dissent ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Government

Significance Crackdowns against the political opposition have increased as the government tries to stifle political dissent. The constitution mandates presidential and national assembly elections by late November, but the incumbent, President Joseph Kabila, appears unwilling to leave office despite reaching his term limit. Impacts Tshisekedi's return will raise the stakes in the country's political crisis. Instability or political violence risks shattering DRC's fragile economic recovery. The UN could expand the mandate of its mission in the DRC depending on the outcome of the political process.

South Africa's ANC factionalisation will hasten

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
Power Utility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Conference ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Khoza has openly called on ANC MPs to vote against President Jacob Zuma in a parliamentary motion of no confidence scheduled for August 8. Despite many ANC members privately agreeing with Khoza, most ruling party lawmakers have kept silent ahead of the crucial vote. Instead, the race to succeed Zuma as leader at December's national conference is prompting fierce internal contestation among the party and its alliance structures, threatening to undermine its 2019 general election performance. Impacts Intra-ANC violence could grow in the run up to, and after, December’s national conference. Ongoing corruption allegations involving officials at state-owned power utility Eskom could implicate members of the government. Relations between the minister of mines and the Chamber of Mines are likely to deteriorate further following new government restrictions.

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