Skills shortage may hit Australia's post-COVID growth

Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 258-276
Author(s):  
Hanan AbdelKhalik Abouelfarag ◽  
Mohamed Sayed Abed

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to trace the effects of both foreign direct investment (FDI) and external debt on economic growth and employment in Egypt over the 1985–2014 period. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis includes three stages: an aggregate time series analysis, a panel model that includes six economic sectors and a set of single-sector models. The “autoregressive distributed lag” approach is utilized either in the time series or in the panel models. Findings The empirical results of this research reveal that foreign investment exerts a weak positive effect on economic growth and employment in Egypt. External debt exerts an insignificant effect on economic growth and employment in the aggregate model. The sectoral analysis reveals that the effect varies greatly between sectors; the effect of FDI on output is positive in the financial, tourism and other service sectors, while it is insignificant in the agricultural, construction and manufacturing sectors. Practical implications It is important not to depend on external debt as an easy way to obtain capital. Greater efforts should be exerted to increase the absorptive capacity of the Egyptian economy so as to benefit from the positive spillover effect of foreign investment as much as possible. Originality/value With respect to Egypt, very limited studies have focussed on the role of external debt on growth and that of FDI and external debt on the employment level. There is no general agreement concerning the effect of FDI on economic growth. Therefore, this research explores the effect of FDI and external debt on the Egyptian economy utilizing both aggregate and sectoral data.


Author(s):  
Faris Alshubiri ◽  
Mohamed Elheddad

Purpose This study aims to examine the relationship between foreign finance, economic growth and CO2 to investigate if the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) exists as an empirical evidence in 32 selected Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Design/methodology/approach This study used quantitative analysis to test two main hypotheses: H1 is the U-shape relationship between foreign finance and environment, and H2 is the N-shaped association between economic growth and environment. In doing so, this study used panel data techniques. The panel set contained 32 countries over the period from 1990 to 2015, with 27 observations for each country. This study applied a panel OLS estimator via fixed-effects control to address heterogeneity and mitigate endogeneity. Generalized method of moments (GMM) with fixed effects-instrumental variables (FE-IV) and diagnostic tests were also used. Findings The results showed that foreign finance and environmental quality have an inverted U-shaped association. The three proxies’ foreign investment, foreign assets and remittance in the first stages contribute significantly to CO2 emissions, but after the threshold point is reached, these proxies become “environmentally friendly” by their contribution to reducing CO2 emissions. Also, a non-linear relationship denotes that foreign investment in OECD countries enhances the importance, as a proxy of foreign finance has greater environmental quality than foreign assets. Additionally, empirical results show that remittances received is linked to the highest polluted levels until a threshold point is reached, at which point it then helps reduce CO2 emissions. The GMM and FE-IV results provide robust evidence on inverse U-shaped relationship, while the N-shaped relationship explains that economic growth produces more CO2 emissions at the first phase of growth, but the quadratic term confirms this effect is negative after a specific level of GDP is reached. Then, this economic growth makes the environment deteriorate. These results are robust even after controlling for the omitted variable issue. The IV-FE results indicate an N-shaped relationship in the OECD countries. Practical implications Most studies have used different economic indicators as proxies to show the effects of these indicators on the environment, but they are flawed and outdated regarding the large social challenges facing contemporary, socio-financial economic systems. To overcome these disadvantages, the social, institutional and environmental aspects of economic development should also be considered. Hence, this study aims to explain this issue as a relationship with several proxies in regard to environmental, foreign finance and economic aspects. Originality/value This paper uses updated data sets for analyzing the relationship between foreign finance and economic growth as a new proxy for pollution. Also, this study simulates the financial and environmental future to show their effect on investments in different OECD countries. While this study enhances the literature by establishing an innovative control during analysis, this will increase to add value. This study is among the few studies that empirically investigate the non-linear relationship between finance and environmental degradation.


Subject West Africa ports development. Significance Economic growth and rising trade volumes with Asian countries are straining West Africa's commercial port capacities. Various port infrastructure projects are underway as states compete to become shipping gateways for the region. Ever larger container ships are also forcing states to offer deeper water berth ports. Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria are leading the race. Impacts Low oil prices should not affect port expansion as the costs are borne by competing private sector operators. The question of whether the operator-driven port model delivers equivalent benefits to individual economies will grow as profits rise. European private sector port operators continue to dominate, but competition from Asian companies such as DP World is growing.


Subject The economic outlook for Fiji. Significance Fiji has returned to political stability and a degree of international legitimacy in recent years, albeit in a context of poor to moderate economic growth. GDP growth of 4.0 % is forecast for 2015, but the outlook for Fiji's main industries (tourism, gold and services) remains stagnant as aggregate regional demand for resources slumps and Fiji's comparative advantage as a regional services hub erodes. Impacts The government will actively promote FDI to boost Fiji's lacklustre economic growth prospects. The government will promote agriculture and fisheries to provide opportunities for disadvantaged rural and ethnic populations. Foreign investment in tourism will probably increase slowly as demand from Asian countries grows. Fiji's dominance in the South Pacific economy will likely diminish as advances in ICT allow it to be bypassed. Ways must be found to prevent loss of trained and educated personnel if Fiji is to maintain its central role.


Significance Portugal is set for the best five-year period of growth since the turn of the millennium, unemployment is falling and public finances are showing positive signs. The upswing is reflected in the remarkable stability of the political system. Impacts The economic recovery is likely to drive down yields on government bonds. Centeno’s appointment as Eurogroup president will raise Portugal’s standing in the EU. Security concerns in many Mediterranean countries are likely to boost Portugal’s tourism industry.


Subject Management of South Sudan's economy Significance A framework peace agreement reached in Khartoum on June 27 comprised only five substantive articles; it was therefore striking that one focused on re-starting oil production. The potential -- and the desire -- for economic recovery are real, but turning potential into actual development and growth will require more than just getting the oil flowing again. Impacts Attempts to strengthen oilfield security in Unity State could trigger new fighting. Unity’s oilfields could potentially add 70,000 barrels per day by the end of 2019. Foreign investment inflows will remain minimal in the short-to-medium term.


Subject Financing sources for Russian companies. Significance Low investment rates in the last three years have led to substantial fixed asset deterioration. Russian companies are trying to make better use of existing assets instead of renewing productive capacity, and the main source of investment is their own funds. Impacts As EU and US sanctions persist, Russia will strive to boost domestic capital markets. Prolonged low investment will restrict economic growth prospects for the medium-to-long term. Insufficient investment will limit productivity and undermine product competitiveness. Signs of economic recovery may boost mergers and acquisitions.


Subject Prospects for West Africa in 2018. Significance Ruling coalitions will emphasise economic recovery (Nigeria) and foreign investment gains (Ivory Coast), while fragile transitions beckon for post-conflict states (Sierra Leone). Militant terrorist threats are plaguing countries across the region (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria), heaping added pressure on ruling alliances to improve counter-terrorism preparedness.


Significance The package of 39 projects, worth MXN297bn (USD14.5bn), aims to boost post-pandemic economic growth through privately funded investments or strategic alliances between private entities and state governments in infrastructure, energy and communications. Several government flagship infrastructure projects also receive increased resources in the proposed 2021 budget. Impacts The ARE will not solve Mexico’s long-term energy needs as it excludes major areas such as hydrocarbons exploration and production. The 190,000 jobs that the ARE may create will do little to offset the 2 million formal jobs lost due to the pandemic in March-August. Most of the employment that will be created by the ARE and government priority projects will be temporary, low-paid jobs. Concerns regarding contractual security under the current administration will continue to dampen investor confidence.


Significance However, he will lack the commodity boom-related revenue that fuelled such programmes. Bolivia has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic; GDP is forecast to contract by between 5-8% in 2020 amid increasing fiscal and external deficits and declining foreign reserves. Impacts Economic stress in key industries will carry over to the financial sector, potentially triggering a need for liquidity support. Insecurity could weigh on foreign investment, especially if anti-MAS protests endure or unrest develops over issues such as unemployment. A weaker hydrocarbon sector will hit growth, particularly if the country fails to diversify its economy.


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