Clashes among federal powers will intensify in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower House ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Popular Pressure ◽  
New Evidence

Significance Bolsonaro has been increasing his attacks on senators leading a Senate-led inquiry into his administration’s handling of COVID-19 and on members of the Supreme Court and the TSE, due to mounting opposition to Bolsonaro’s plan to reinstate paper ballots in next year’s election. Impacts New evidence by the Senate inquiry may increase popular pressure for the Lower House to launch an impeachment process. Bolsonaro will continue to increase his support for and reliance on parties of the centre-right and right in Congress to block impeachment. Bolsonaro will sustain allegations of fraud in 2018 and potential fraud in 2022 as a diversionary tactic in the short term.

Maia lines up to succeed Temer in Brazil

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Perspective ◽  
Lower House ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Labour Legislation

Significance The Senate vote was the last hurdle the bill had to clear in Congress before President Michel Temer could sign it into law. The approval of this reform, which represents the most drastic overhaul of labour legislation since 1943, is also a political victory for Temer. However, he remains an increasingly weak president whose future hangs in the balance as the Lower House decides whether to allow the Supreme Court (STF) to prosecute him for corruption, as requested by Prosecutor-General Rodrigo Janot. If it does, he will be removed from office, initially for up to six months. Impacts Despite its unpopularity, Congress is becoming increasingly key to sealing the fate of governments. A conservative Maia government would strengthen the left’s narrative that the Workers’ Party (PT) was the victim of a “coup”. From a policy perspective, Maia would represent continuity with Temer.

Cambodia’s main opposition could split

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Lower House ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Trade Sanctions

Subject Cambodia's banned opposition. Significance The National Assembly last month passed an amendment to a law on political parties, enabling the prime minister to request the king to lift court-imposed bans on politicians. Prime Minister Hun Sen’s Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) won all 125 seats in parliament’s lower house in last July’s election. The Supreme Court in November 2017 dissolved the main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) and gave 118 senior party officials five-year bans from politics. Impacts Indicted CNRP leader Kem Sokha could receive a royal pardon as part of efforts to appease foreign critics. EU trade sanctions will hit Cambodia’s export-oriented garments industry, threatening Hun Sen’s support base. Increasing Western hostility will push Cambodia further into China’s orbit.

Supreme Court setback is a blow to Paraguay's Cartes

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court

Subject The politics surrounding impeachment of Supreme Court judges. Significance A cross-party grouping in the Senate has refused to support the impeachment of three Supreme Court judges. This represents a major political setback for President Horacio Cartes and the first opposition victory in Congress since he took office in August 2013. The decision will put pressure on Cartes to accept their demand for a wholesale reform of the Supreme Court. Impacts Cartes faces internal Colorado Party opposition to his re-election ambitions. Congressional opposition to the Supreme Court's impeachment plans will weaken Cartes within the party. The process will do nothing to strengthen the credibility of supposed anti-corruption measures.

Modi's regulatory crackdown on NGOs could backfire

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Similar Action ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Perceived Ability ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
The Government

Significance In April, similar action was taken against nearly 9,000 other non-profits. These moves are part of intensifying clashes between the government and civil society. Many NGOs are vocal opponents of Modi's key policies, and the government is frustrated at their perceived ability to harness popular opposition and use the judiciary to stall key projects. Impacts Government efforts on coal (and to a lesser extent nuclear energy) will still encounter NGO resistance. The Supreme Court may become embroiled in the NGO-government clash, portending costly and lengthy battles for investors. Western governments are likely to be more sensitive to Modi's regulatory crackdown, risking hurdles in improving diplomatic ties.

Venezuela institutional conflicts foreshadow dead end

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Dead End ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Foreign Ministry ◽  
Group Blocking

Significance Disputes over constitutionality are tense, and similarly between the executive and legislature, with Maduro preparing to cut funding to the opposition-dominated National Assembly. At the same time, regional pressure is mounting with members of the Mercosur group blocking Venezuela from assuming the body's rotating presidency. Impacts Pressure on the CNE will intensify as the opposition and government respectively seek to advance and block next steps in the recall process. For symbolic reasons, the opposition will keep the Assembly open even if funds are cut and the Supreme Court annuls its initiatives. The dispute with Mercosur will put an already pressured Venezuelan Foreign Ministry on a back foot.

Amnesty law ruling may not reopen cases in El Salvador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Court Ruling ◽  
Supreme Court Ruling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Tit For Tat

Subject Amnesty law implications. Significance On July 13, the Supreme Court declared unconstitutional a civil-war amnesty law, which has been in force since 1993. This has led to fears of investigations against current politicians, and warnings that political stability could be undermined. Impacts The fall-out from the Supreme Court ruling will place a renewed focus on the independence of El Salvador's judiciary. The fact that both main parties are involved may discourage politicians from engaging in tit-for-tat allegations. There will be considerable military pressure on ARENA to oppose reopening civil-war cases.

Guatemala’s Morales will struggle to keep his immunity

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
International Commission ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
International Donors ◽  
Campaign Financing ◽  
Legislative Vote

Subject Morales pressures. Significance The UN-led International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) and the attorney general’s office on August 10 formally requested that the supreme court allow a legislative vote on whether President Jimmy Morales can be stripped of immunity from prosecution. Morales is facing investigation over allegations of illegal campaign financing, which undermine his stated commitment to combating corruption. Impacts Confrontation with the CICIG could affect aid financing from international donors, especially those linked to the UN. A successful push to remove Morales’s immunity would likely spark a series of similar motions against serving legislators. Popular frustration with the political establishment will position new, anti-corruption parties well for the elections in 2019.

US emergency powers will see deeper debate

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emergency Powers ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Mexico Border ◽  
Democrats And Republicans ◽  
Us Mexico Border

Significance Democrats and Republicans have not yet agreed a way out of the impasse over building a US-Mexico border wall that caused the shutdown. President Donald Trump has suggested using presidential emergency powers to build the wall. Impacts If wall-building money came from funds for natural-disaster-hit California or Puerto Rico, Republican support could suffer. Moves to ensure furloughed federal workers get back-pay on government’s re-opening will give Republicans some political cover. Democratic legislative moves to limit presidential emergency powers could gain some Republican votes. Trump would veto any bill curtailing his powers, but he is unlikely to make widespread use of emergency powers. A fight over emergency powers would likely go to the Supreme Court; it might rule for Trump.

Two US cases could upend work and politics environment

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Trade Union ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Unions ◽  
The Supreme Court

Subject Employment and trade union law. Significance The Supreme Court will shortly rule on two cases which, if decided in the respective plaintiffs’ favour, will greatly weaken labour unions’ influence and employee contract rights. Impacts If the unions lose the Janus case, the loss of funds could reduce their ability to campaign and influence elections. Weaker unions would have a disproportionate effect between the various US gender and ethnic groupings; minorities could suffer. The Democratic Party is traditionally closer to unions and would feel the effects of weaker unions more than Republicans.

Temer continuity would prolong crisis in Brazil

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Root Cause ◽  
The Supreme Court

Significance The substitution of Osmar Serraglio by the more prestigious Torquato Jardim was received as an attempt by Temer to gain influence with the Supreme Electoral Court and the Supreme Court, whose rulings in coming weeks and months could bring an end to his presidency. The move came after yet another week of crisis for his government, in which protesters set official buildings on fire, and the army was briefly called in to contain violence in Brasilia. Impacts The need to form and keep the loyalty of large coalitions is the root cause of political instability. This will not change with an electoral system that allows nearly 30 parties to be represented in Congress. Governance will remain challenging whoever succeeds Temer.

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