Israel’s post-election talks are likely to be messy

Significance Israel will hold its second legislative vote of the year on September 17 after coalition talks collapsed following April’s previous election. Impacts Netanyahu will try to shift the focus of the election towards security, and away from religion and society issues. The prime minister will vaunt his personal ties with Trump, Putin and Modi to enhance his image. The re-emergence of the Joint List may improve voter turnout among the Arab population. With the country still in holiday mode, the campaign will only start in earnest in September.

Guatemala’s Morales will struggle to keep his immunity

Subject Morales pressures. Significance The UN-led International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) and the attorney general’s office on August 10 formally requested that the supreme court allow a legislative vote on whether President Jimmy Morales can be stripped of immunity from prosecution. Morales is facing investigation over allegations of illegal campaign financing, which undermine his stated commitment to combating corruption. Impacts Confrontation with the CICIG could affect aid financing from international donors, especially those linked to the UN. A successful push to remove Morales’s immunity would likely spark a series of similar motions against serving legislators. Popular frustration with the political establishment will position new, anti-corruption parties well for the elections in 2019.

A Great Leap Forward for Democracy and the Rule of Law? Brazil's Mensalão Trial

The Mensalão trial was Brazil's most important political corruption trial ever and an emblematic ex post accountability success. More than 28 individuals were convicted in relation to a legislative vote-buying scheme, many by the very officials they helped appoint. We relay the trajectory of the scandal cum trial, explain its successful prosecution and assess its implications. The article argues that the Mensalão has proved pivotal for Brazil's institutional and legal advances and asks – more than a quarter of a century after a new constitution – whether the country is entering into a stronger, more enduring relationship with the rule of law.

Coordination and presidential coattails

Parties often enter pre-election coalitions (PECs) in presidential elections while remaining independent in legislative races. Parties that support a presidential candidate should see legislative gains given the increase in their national electoral profile. Yet fewer presidential candidates often leads to fewer legislative parties, suggesting that participation in PECs reduces parties’ independent legislative representation. In this article, we examine how specific strategies in the presidential race affect parties’ legislative vote share. Using an original dataset of over 2300 party-level observations in 23 democracies across Europe and South America from 1975 to 2010, we show that the benefits of a party’s presidential strategy are conditional on its size. We find that smaller parties benefit from coattails when they run on their own or lead a PEC, while no parties benefit from joining a PEC. Our findings have important implications for understanding how parties’ presidential strategies influence their legislative success and system-level legislative fragmentation.

The 2011 Debt-Ceiling Controversy and the 2012 US House Elections

ABSTRACTThis article considers how a key legislative vote—that is, the August 2011 vote to raise the federal debt ceiling—influenced the 2012 elections for the US House of Representatives. Two outcomes are analyzed: (1) the incumbents’ ability to retain their seats through the 2012 general election, and (2) their share of the two-party vote for members who faced a general-election competitor. In developing this study, the research design was registered and released publicly before the votes were counted in 2012. Therefore, this article also illustrates how study preregistration can work in practice for political science. The findings show that seat retention did not vary with the treatment; however, incumbents who voted against raising the debt ceiling earned an additional 2.4 percentage points of the two-party vote.